The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and if you think that this year is different than any other year, then you are mistaken. First thing is first; do yourself a favor and find a great online prediction site. Why do this alone? There are several of them, find a good one and take their advice. These type of websites know what they are doing and they will steer you in the right direction.
Face it, you are busy and probably have nowhere near the kind of time that it takes to do the proper research necessary in order to make the most informed decision when it comes to betting the NBA. The NBA may seem daunting when it comes to betting the spread and you can believe this to be true. This is not always the case, but often it proves to be true.
The NBA is extremely unpredictable in the regular season but comes playoff time; things turn very predictable. For many years, in-fact for a very long time, the NBA has had a legion of conspiracy theorists. Now, we are not saying to buy into this or telling anyone that conspiracy is king here, but having said that, every year seems to be the same when it comes playoff time. The same teams get in and the same teams get nearly the same seed every year, especially in the Western Conference.
Case in Point:
The Houston Rockets are a great example and for that matter, the Golden State Warriors are a great example as well. For the sake of this example, let’s concentrate on the Rockets. The Rockets won a ton of games during the regular season and they had a banner year. James Harden is a virtual lock for the regular season MVP and with Chris Paul in town, these guys have looked close to unbeatable.
The Rockets went 65-17 during the regular season with some very large winning streaks along the way. They won their first three out of the gate, they lost 1, won two in a row and then lost 2 in a row. They went on to have a 5 game, 3, game, 4 game, 14 game and then an 11 games winning streak. The Rockets got hot at all of the right times and even had a couple of losing streaks mixed in. They actually lost 7 of 9 at one point and then lost 3 of their last 6 games, imagined what their record could have been!
As good as the Rockets were during the regular season and as many hot streaks as they managed to pull off, the “same ole same ole” is happening in the playoffs. Houston did exactly what they were expected to do, they won the first two games at home and then went on the road to Minnesota, the number 8 seed, the team that barely beat Denver in overtime of the last regular season game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference; Houston got their rear ends kicked by this Timberwolves team.
The rear end kicking is no surprise, this is what always happens in the playoffs. There are exceptions and this year that would be the Portland Trail Blazers. The Blazers simply didn’t belong in this year’s group of Western Conference Playoff teams. New Orleans laid a beat down on Portland and it was ugly, but that’s an exception.
Golden State looks extremely good and at the time of this writing, they possessed a 3-0 series lead over the Spurs, however, the Spurs look very good in game 4 and could go on to extend this one to a 3-1 lead. This series is an anomaly so to speak. The Spurs are without their number one player, their star-in Kawhi Leonard. They also received the tragic news of head coach Greg Popovich’ wife suddenly passing away. Look, the Spurs need a lot of help and without their head coach and facing such tough news; it’s not going to happen for them this year. Count this series out of the above example.
The rest of basketball is playing out exactly as it does every year, oh sure there are a few surprises along the way such as the Heat procuring in a victory at Philly and Philly doubling down in Miami. Sure it happens and this is all a part of the folklore of the NBA Playoffs.
It happens every year the same; everyone predicts a sweep and it doesn’t happen (except New Orleans/Portland) but nobody predicted that one and everyone gave Portland much more credit than they deserved.
The Houston/Timberwolves series is the best example. Who knows how game four plays? The Timberwolves probably make it interesting and win the game. If they do lose, they probably go back to Houston and win one!
Many folks want to jump out on the conspiracy theory-preverbal limb. Here is the deal:
Do not buy into this. This is simply noise and it’s the same old noise that has been going on since Patrick Ewing was drafted by the Knicks. The NBA is not making phone calls at halftime, they are not paying off the refs, and they are not paying off players. If any of this did go on it would take the most elaborate scheme in the history of organized sports. This would go deep, it would go beyond the bench and far beyond the bench.
Las Vegas does not control the NBA. When you see numbers that defy the odds night in and night out such as totals that hit consistently within a point or two of the number or the spread that makes for a head scratcher and the numbers always come through for Vegas; the oddsmakers are that good. They don’t have a hotline to the commissioner’s desk and they aren’t systematically in bed with the refs. This conspiracy madness is just that, madness.
Las Vegas and offshore bookmakers have figured the NBA out and they have played their cards to the bone. They have become hard to beat and as a player, you must win at least 53% of the time in order to cover the juice. This does not mean that you are making a profit, it means you broke even. The juice cost money and this is exactly why you should have several sportsbooks in your back pocket. As a gambler/player on the NBA, you must have options and you must diversify. Having more than one online bookie allows you to shop around and find a better deal; find better numbers.
Because of the “Las Vegas” factor, the NBA is not always easy to predict and often it’s downright brutal. A playoff series may be predictable and it seems that in the NBA, players play to their home crowd. They play to the hype and the attention, for whatever reason this is how it seems to go down, night after night in the playoffs. Superstars such as James Harden, Steph Curry, and LeBron James, they simply do not play as well on the road as they do at home. Who knows if this is a mental block or what exactly it is or is there even any real explanation? It’s a for-sure phenomenon that happens and it happens on a regular basis.
As a gambler, this is not something to count on, this is not solid and more often than not, one needs something different in order to have any confidence betting the NBA Playoffs. More often than not, the team that opened on the road such as the Timberwolves will be slightly favored upon their return home, more often than not, they win and usually they fail to cover. In this case, the Timberwolves not only won the game, they covered in a big way. Again, extremely hit and miss. There has to be a better, safer and more enjoyable way to bet the NBA. There are several ways and here are a couple.
A safer way to go…
Quarters and especially quarter totals are a safer way to go. Live betting along with dynamic live betting is also a great alternative to betting the game straight up. Here is the one trick that you need for this type of betting; be quick with addition and subtraction! That’s right, have a very good understanding of basic math, you are going to need it with live betting.
Live betting makes the game that you are watching, much more fun. It gives you a reason to root and a reason to almost never leave your couch. This way of betting really is fun, it’s fast-paced, it’s over in a blink and you have hopefully won a pile of money.
The easiest way to make money live betting is on totals. Find an online sportsbook that that combines the first half totals as a live line.
Golden State vs. Houston, the game is in the 1st quarter with 6 minutes left, the score is 19-17. This means that 6 minutes have gone by and 36 points have been scored. The first quarter is at the halfway point and there are already 36 points on the board, this game is a barnburner and is on pace to score 72 in the first quarter. Your online bookie is going to throw up a live line of somewhere around 128 for the first half. Do you remember what the total was for the entire game before the game started? In this example no, because we didn’t mention it but rest assured, the total would have been high between these two teams. Both Golden State and Houston score a ton of points and both score in spurts of a quick 10-15 points.
The total for the game between the Rockets and the Warriors would normally be somewhere in the 119 neighborhood. Now, you are watching this game and this is where your basketball betting instincts must kick in. You see what kind of game is being played, you see the pace and you see the intensity or lack thereof. You are forced to make a judgment call but you are making that call based on your basketball knowledge; usually, your first instinct is right, trust your instinct. Do the math, if the first quarter doesn’t feel like 72 points, does the entire first half feel like 128?
Let’s suppose the pace of the first quarter slows down after the 6 minute halfway mark, how many points can you reasonably give and still make the over? Remember, there are 36 points on the board, it’s halfway through the first quarter and you are seeing 128 points for the half. Do you take the over or the under? The total for the entire game was 119 before tipoff.
A must remember rule in the NBA… However the first half total goes, you can count on the second half going the other way or vice versa. Nine out of ten times this is the case. So follow this rule closely and you can win at the totals game.
In this case, you will want to jump on the over. Obviously, the numbers here are just an example, however, this example is supported by years and years of gaming experience. You only need 56 points to hit the 128 mark, you must take this one over. The number will more than likely be closer to 138, you still jump on the over only needing 66. If this game stays on pace and follows suit to halftime. You look at the second half total, and most likely play the second half, under the posted total.
With totals, it’s all about numbers, this is a numbers game and you have no rooting interest in the outcome of either the quarters, the first half, the second half or the entire game. Who cares who wins the game, as long as you get the over or the under? Betting live totals follow suite the same throughout the first half and then the second half.
Dynamic lines give you an opportunity to lock in the live line at set odds.
Golden State vs. Houston
1st quarter-24-24, 3 minutes left… the dynamic line is set for a certain amount of time, a minute or two, this type of line will be more expensive, the juice will be higher but always remember, you get what you pay for!
Look at the numbers closely, do the quick math and determine whether or not the risk is worth the bet. Remember this, if the game total started out before tipoff at 119 and now there are 48 points on the board with 3 minutes to go in the first half and you see a live line that says 133 Over -110, Under + 130 are you going to take the over? You must think about the original total, it was 119, now all of a sudden the oddsmaker has lost confidence in the original total. What about you, have you lost confidence? The live line is asking you to play 15 more points more than the original total? This is an example of a bad line and you will see these lines all day long in the NBA. They are all over the board in live betting. You must take the under. Sure a “bad beat” can happen and sometimes it does, that’s why they call it a gamble! But most of the time this will not happen and for that reason, you must play the numbers by the book.
Don’t be afraid to bet the quarters individually and we are still talking about totals. Be careful on the quarter spreads. The quarter money line bets are often much safer than spread bets but as a general rule both are not a safe bet, especially in the first quarter but again there are exceptions to this rule.
Exception: The exception to the “don’t bet first quarter rule” is this; Houston or Golden State at home. They nearly always cover the first quarter at home along with many other teams such as Oklahoma, Philadelphia, Miami and all of the playoff teams. The team comes out pumped up in front of the home crowd and wants to get off to a good start. Rely on the better teams in the first quarter, this is a good way to start off the game-winning money.
There are a lot of ways to bet on the NBA and whatever way you chose to remember this, the NBA is not rigged and there is no conspiracy. Vegas really is this good. What we have laid out here are some simple and really fun ways to beat the house. Find a great online sportsbook and remember, get some good advice or be prepared to do a lot of homework. There is a lot of money to be made betting the NBA, don’t be left out.
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