The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs will face off at Arrowhead Stadium for a season-opening AFC showdown on Thursday, Sept. 10. The game will mark the 13th meeting in a series the Chiefs lead, 7-5. The most recent game between the teams was an AFC Divisional Round contest Jan. 12, 2020, which the Chiefs won 51-31. However, the Texans prevailed in a Week 6 meeting at Arrowhead, 31-24.
TNF BETTING ODDS AND ANALYSIS
The Chiefs unsurprisingly check in as sizable favorites. Their projected advantage currently ranges from 9.5 points to 10.5 points in most sportsbooks. Kansas City’s stellar track record against the number last season is certainly noteworthy. They also head into the season with at least as potent an offensive arsenal as the one that helped garner a Super Bowl LIV victory.
The Texans forged a winning record against the spread on the road last season and posted a solid 5-3 regular-season mark straight up when traveling. The Chiefs lost three games overall at Arrowhead Stadium last regular season (one without Mahomes), including the aforementioned 31-24 Week 6 defeat at the hands of Houston. However, KC won three of its five home games by at least 10 points and will be facing a Texans defense that surrendered an AFC-high 295.9 passing yards per road game in 2019.
The mid-50s projected point total isn’t surprising when considering Houston allowed 26.7 points per road game last season, including the 51 they ceded to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Then, KC averaged an AFC-high 30.0 points per home game despite Mahomes missing two to injury.
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TEXANS – CHIEFS GAME MATCH-UP
The defending-champion Chiefs cut the ribbon on what promises to be a unique 2020 season as hosts to the Texans. However, home-field advantage, like so many aspects of the upcoming campaign, won’t quite be the same as usual. Kansas City will only allow 16,000 fans into Arrowhead Stadium for this contest, which will largely mute the raucous environment it’s become renowned for. Then again, the relatively sparse crowd will still be more than most, if not all, other teams playing home dates early in the season will have.
The two teams have had markedly different offseasons. The Texans let go of one of the most accomplished players in franchise history in DeAndre Hopkins. Houston traded the decorated receiver, who posted an impressive 104-1,165-7 line across 15 games last season, to the Cardinals for running back David Johnson. That itself equates to a fairly big swing in offensive philosophy. It’s hardly the only skill-player-related transaction on the Texans’ ledger in recent months. Also added to the receiving corps were veterans Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks, the latter via trade with the Rams. They join incumbents Will Fuller and Kenny Stills to give quarterback Deshaun Watson a formidable foursome, albeit one that has some risk factors attached.
Fuller has a fairly extensive injury history that’s led to him playing just 28 of a possible 48 regular-season games in the last three seasons. He’s now being counted on as the de facto No. 1 receiver in the wake of Hopkins’ departure. Cooks, Cobbs and Stills all bring above-average speed and quickness, yet all have a certain degree of durability issues pertaining to their slighter frames.
Meanwhile, Johnson is gunning to reset after an often underwhelming three-season stretch. Still just 28 years old and with only 363 carries on his resume since the start of the 2017 season, he presumably has plenty of tread left on his tires. There’s little doubt his pass-catching proficiency is still intact, but Johnson’s ability to consistently gain chunks of real estate on the ground is somewhat in question after he averaged 3.6 and 3.7 yards per carry in the last two seasons.
On the other side, the Chiefs are already down one pivotal piece from their championship squad in running back Damien Williams. The veteran opted out of the 2020 campaign due to COVID-19 concerns. However, first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire stands at the ready, with support from free-agent addition DeAndre Washington, holdover Darrel Williams and 2019 sixth-rounder Darwin Thompson.
Helaire has been hailed for how quickly he appears to be adapting in training camp thus far and shapes up as a prototypical Andy Reid back that could wreak significant havoc in KC’s high-octane offense. The LSU product compiled 1,414 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, along with a 55-453-1 line through the air, during his 2019 junior campaign.
The Chiefs’ lethal air attack is back in full force as well. Patrick Mahomes is fresh off a Super Bowl title and a subsequent 10-year extension that makes him the NFL’s highest-paid player. He’ll have Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Travis Kelce back as his top four pass-catching threats. The impressive array of offensive talent will look to build on their formidable 2019 figure of 281.1 passing yards per game.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING BREAKDOWN
The Chiefs lead the all-time series with the Texans by a 7-5 margin. Kansas City has won five of the last seven meetings between the teams overall, including two postseason contests during that span.
The Texas were 8-9-1 (47.1 percent) against the spread last regular season and postseason, including 4-3-1 (57.1 percent) as an away team. Then, the Over was 8-10 (44.4 percent) in the Texans’ games last regular season and postseason, including 4-4 in their away games.
The Chiefs were 13-5-1 (NFL-high 72.2 percent) against the spread last regular season and postseason, including 6-3-1 (co-NFL-high 66.7 percent) as a home team. Then, the Over was 10-9 (52.6 percent) in the Chiefs’ games last regular season and postseason, including 7-3 (70.0 percent) in their home games.
Advanced Pick: Chiefs -9.5 over Texans