BET AGAINST SUPER BOWL LOSERS IN WEEK 1
There was a time, not too long ago, when betting against the loser of the Super Bowl in Week 1 of the following season was a lock. A guaranteed winner. Easy money.
Indeed, the 12 seasons between Super Bowl 34 and Super Bowl 45 witnessed the loser of the Big Game fail to cover every season in Week 1. That’s right, 0-12 ATS. And it wasn’t really close straight up either, with the losers going just 2-10 SU. It seemed losing the Super Bowl doomed that team to a Week 1 loss and bettors just kept betting against them year after year.
The pendulum on that trend has swung back in recent years with the Super Bowl loser going 6-3 SU but just 4-5 ATS from Super Bowl 46 to Super Bowl 54. But overall, the trend is 4-17 ATS over the past 21 seasons. And that streak repeated a year ago when the San Francisco 49ers in the unenviable position of being 7-point home favorites against the Arizona Cardinals in 2020.
In 2021, the Kansas City Chiefs are reigning Super Bowl losers and open as home favorites to Cleveland.
IS SUPER BOWL LOSER HANGOVER SYNDROME REAL?
Is this a real handicapping factor that should make Chiefs bettors a little gun-shy, with Super Bowl Loser Hangover Syndrome (SBLHS for short) potentially still a threat? The Browns are a team on the rise and the Chiefs face the challenge of remaining relevant after consecutive Super Bowl trips.
Speaking of Super Bowl contenders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers open the season as favorites in the NFC around 6/1, according to the Super Bowl 55 futures list posted at FanDuel Sportsbook. And that brings us around to the flip side of the Hangover argument – does the Super Bowl winner always win in Week 1 of the following season?
What about Super Bowl Winner Non-Hangover Syndrome? Is that a thing?
Super Bowl winners have experienced a nearly opposite start to the following season, with the defending champs going 18-3 SU in Week 1 the past 21 seasons. The ATS mark is just 13-6-2, but still a money-making angle for bettors who believe Super Bowl champs will prevail in season openers.
Kansas City covered last season as the lone Week 1 double-digit favorite. Currently they are -10 (-10.5 at some shops) at home to the Houston Texans, but buyer beware on the Chiefs – these same Texans defeated the Chiefs here a year ago 31-24. The Chiefs have now won six straight Week 1 games and covered the last five.
So in the last 20 seasons, only the Patriots after Super Bowl 51, the Ravens after Super Bowl 47 and the Giants after Super Bowl 46 have lost Week 1 of the following season during that time. All three also failed to cover the spread, according to Trend Dummy’s Super Bowl Hangover Chart below.
SUPER BOWL LOSERS IN WEEK 1
| Game | Winner | Wk 1 | Loser | Wk 1 |
| 55 | Buccaneers | ? | Chiefs | ? |
| 54 | Chiefs | W-W | Niners | L – L |
| 53 | Patriots | W – W | Rams | W – W |
| 52 | Eagles | W – W | Patriots | W – W |
| 51 | Patriots | L – L | Falcons | W – L |
| 50 | Broncos | W- W | Panthers | L – L |
| 49 | Patriots | W – P | Seahawks | L – L |
| 48 | Seahawks | W – W | Broncos | W – L |
| 47 | Ravens | L – L | 49ers | W – W |
| 46 | Giants | L – L | Patriots | W – W |
| 45 | Packers | W – W | Steelers | L – L |
| 44 | Saints | W – L | Colts | L – L |
| 43 | Steelers | W – L | Cardinals | L – L |
| 42 | Giants | W – W | Patriots | W – L |
| 41 | Colts | W – W | Bears | L – L |
| 40 | Steelers | W – W | Seahawks | W – L |
| 39 | Patriots | W – W | Eagles | L – L |
| 38 | Patriots | W – P | Panthers | L – L |
| 37 | Buccaneers | W – W | Raiders | L – L |
| 36 | Patriots | W – W | Rams | L – L |
| 35 | Ravens | W – W | Giants | L – L |
| 34 | Rams | W – L | Titans | L – L |
| 33 | Broncos | L – L | Falcons | L – W |
| 32 | Broncos | W – L | Packers | W – W |
| 31 | Packers | W – L | Patriots | W – W |
| 30 | Cowboys | L – L | Steelers | L – L |
| since SB34 | 17-3 SU, 12-6-2 ATS | 8-12 SU, 4-16 ATS |