Every year, we downplay significant NFL roster moves or underestimate players on the rise, which makes it difficult to spot sleeper teams.

Clubs that make impactful transactions via trades, free agency or the draft have a chance to exceed the win-loss expectations of analysts and oddsmakers. Sometimes, we overlook a team’s replacements for key roster departures. The next man up could outperform his predecessor.

As we look at 2021 win totals, five squads should easily clear the over. The oddsmakers may have undersold a club’s offseason moves or prematurely projected a regression for a couple of playoff squads from the previous campaign.

Whatever the case, let’s look at the handful of teams that should outperform the current lines in 2021.

5. Chicago Bears: Over 7.5 Wins

In 2020, the Chicago Bears won eight games, so a 7.5 win total suggests they won’t take a big step forward or backward. That sounds about right with Andy Dalton as the projected starting quarterback.

However, the Bears moved up nine spots in the draft to select Justin Fields, a dual-threat signal-caller who completed 68.4 percent of his passes and rushed for 1,133 yards with 19 touchdowns as a collegian. He offers so much more than Dalton, who’s not as dynamic under center.

Head coach Matt Nagy may have left the door open for Fields to play when he said Dalton “is essentially like a rookie as well.”

Dalton has 10 years of pro experience, which gives him the upper hand over Fields in picking up the playbook, but the rookie’s physical tools can force defenses to prepare for run-pass options and more deep shots downfield. The Ohio State product’s rushing ability can also mask potential breakdowns in pass protection with two new starting tackles—one of them rookie second-rounder Teven Jenkins.

Unless Dalton looks phenomenal under center, the Bears will likely turn to Fields at some point this season.

If Dalton plays well, this team should win at least eight games again. With Fields in the huddle, it could push for 10 wins because of his skill set. Defenders would have to account for his legs, which may open up lanes for running back David Montgomery, who tied for fifth in rushing in 2020.

Dalton or Fields will have a solid wide receiver tandem with Allen Robinson II and Darnell Mooney, the latter of whom caught 61 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie.

Former Bears defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano retired, though the team promoted safeties coach Sean Desai. He’ll take over a talented group that includes All-Pro edge-rusher Khalil Mack, All-Pro safety Eddie Jackson, linebacker Roquan Smith and Pro Bowl interior defensive lineman Akiem Hicks.

Even if the offense goes through dry spells, the Bears defense will keep this team in most matchups. This squad should remain competitive for a record above .500 in 2021.

4. Las Vegas Raiders: Over 7 Wins

This offseason, the Las Vegas Raiders traded center Rodney Hudson, guard Gabe Jackson and right tackle Trent Brown, which hurts the continuity of one of the best offensive lines in recent years. On top of that, the team’s lead receiver from the previous season, Nelson Agholor, signed with the New England Patriots in free agency.

Andre James and rookie first-rounder Alex Leatherwood will have a chance to lock down the center and right tackle spots, respectively. Denzelle Good and second-year pro John Simpson may have a tight battle at right guard.

Although the offensive line ranks atop the list among this team’s biggest question marks, Good started 14 games at left guard and right tackle last season. Richie Incognito returns to the lineup after he missed 14 games with an Achilles injury in 2020.

With Incognito healthy and Leatherwood’s run-blocking ability, Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake could rack up a ton of rushing yards. The Raiders’ ground game could take pressure off quarterback Derek Carr, who must build a rapport with second-year wideouts Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards to elevate the passing attack.

Every year, Carr has done more with his legs to extend plays, so he’s more equipped to handle breakdowns in pass protection than in the past. The eighth-year veteran also has a strong rapport with Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller, who’s a reliable downfield target.

The Raiders defense will push them over the seven-win mark. Gus Bradley has built quite a resume as a defensive coordinator. He helped develop the Legion of Boom with the Seattle Seahawks in his first play-calling job and fielded top-10 units in yards allowed for each of the last three seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers.

Bradley could unlock the potential of a young defensive core that includes Clelin Ferrell, Maxx Crosby, Trayvon Mullen, Johnathan Abram, Damon Arnette and rookie Tre’von Moehrig. Cornerback Casey Hayward Jr. and edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue have been productive players on his watch in the past.

Vegas should win more than seven games with a strong ground attack and a solid defense. Because of Carr’s steady improvements, the Raiders rank one spot higher than the Bears, who may need a quarterback switch for an offensive spark.

3. Arizona Cardinals: Over 8 Wins

Somehow, the win total for the Arizona Cardinals matches their number of victories from the 2020 campaign.

Quarterback Kyler Murray could take a Josh Allen-like third-year leap in 2021. He has continuity with key wideouts DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk with quality depth at the position. Andy Isabella and rookie second-rounder Rondale Moore can bring speed out of the slot. The club signed A.J. Green, who’s a solid No. 2 option at this stage in his career.

Chase Edmonds and James Conner can provide a combination of speed and power on the ground. They averaged 4.6 and 4.3 yards per carry, respectively, in the previous campaign. Both tailbacks can also catch out of the backfield, which gives Murray solid options in the short passing game.

Between the 2019 and 2020 terms, the Cardinals went from 28th to 12th in points allowed. Despite the loss of edge-rusher Haason Reddick and cornerback Patrick Peterson, the unit should continue to trend in the right direction with the addition of J.J. Watt and Malcolm Butler. Two-time All-Pro pass-rusher Chandler Jones, who missed 11 games with a torn biceps last season, will return to action.

The Cardinals play in a highly competitive division with the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers, but this team has a rising star in Murray with proven veterans on both sides of the ball. Arizona has the roster pieces to record double-digit wins in 2021.

The Raiders lost more key players than the Cardinals during the offseason. Arizona also acquired three-time Pro Bowl center Rodney Hudson from the Silver and Black to strengthen its offensive line. The Cardinals’ acquisitions elevate them into the No. 3 spot.

2. New York Giants: Over 7 Wins

Last season, the New York Giants fielded the ninth-ranked scoring defense with an offense that struggled to move the ball. Big Blue finished with the second-fewest points and yards.

Going into his third season, quarterback Daniel Jones has a ton of options in the passing game.

The Giants took a couple of big swings for wide receivers, acquiring Kenny Golladay and rookie first-rounder Kadarius Toney. Jones will likely look to the former as a go-to target. The latter provides speed with the ability to line up out wide, in the slot and even in the backfield.

Golladay and Toney will join Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram in the Giants’ pass-catching group. On paper, that’s arguably a top-five unit.

Saquon Barkley’s return from a torn ACL will balance the Giants offense. If he can stay healthy along with backup running back Devontae Booker, Big Blue should have a decent ground attack.

With a stingy defense and a plethora of offensive playmakers, the Giants’ scoring potential should lead to more wins. Meanwhile, New York’s division rivals face major question marks.

Can defensive coordinator Dan Quinn fix the Dallas Cowboys defense? How long will 38-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick start under center for the Washington Football Team? Is Jalen Hurts the Philadelphia Eagles’ franchise quarterback?

While Jones hasn’t secured his future with the Giants, he has the supporting cast to put up a lot of points. In perhaps the NFL’s weakest division, Big Blue places one spot above the Cardinals, who will have much tougher battles within the NFC West.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 Wins

In spite of how badly the Pittsburgh Steelers offense performed at the end of the 2020 term, we shouldn’t write off this team as a sub-.500 squad in 2021.

Matt Canada will replace former offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner. The Steelers’ new play-caller could refresh their conservative and predictable passing attack.

Canada can use three-wide receiver sets with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. He can also feature Eric Ebron and rookie second-rounder Pat Freiermuth in two-tight ends sets.

Rookie running back Najee Harris could have a significant role for the upcoming season, which would take some pressure off 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger under center. Last year, Pittsburgh accumulated the fewest rushing yards.

The Steelers offensive line will feature new starters at left guard, center and right tackle, but Canada can utilize Harris in the short passing game to mask run-blocking issues. The Alabama product recorded 70 receptions for 729 yards and 11 touchdowns in his last two collegiate seasons.

Defensively, the Steelers still have a top-10 unit. Pittsburgh lost edge-rusher Bud Dupree in free agency and released cornerback Steven Nelson, but outside linebacker T.J. Watt, defensive end Cameron Heyward, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and cornerback Joe Haden remain as the core of a solid group.

Inside linebacker Devin Bush is on schedule in his recovery from a torn ACL. He’ll solidify the second level of the defense alongside Vince Williams or Robert Spillane.

Pittsburgh has more than enough talent to top eight wins if its key players stay healthy. Head coach Mike Tomlin won’t finish with his first losing season.

Pittsburgh has tougher matchups against division rivals than the Giants in the NFC East, but it has a proven quarterback under center. Although Roethlisberger looked out of sorts last year, the Steelers still fielded the 12th-ranked scoring attack. We could see a rejuvenated offense with Canada calling plays and the addition of Harris. Consequently, Pittsburgh takes the No. 1 slot.