NFL WEEK 1 BETTING LINES
The schedule was released on May 11 and now we know all the details regarding NFL Week 1 odds. Here are betting previews for the games in the first week of the 2023 regular season.
Detroit Lions (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
NFL betting has not yet started in earnest but the Detroit Lions do seem to already be one of the chic picks for 2023. The Lions, who have long had residency in the basement of the NFC North, are +110 favorites to win the division this year.
Competing in the NFC North and competing against the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs are two different animals, however. Jared Goff’s Lions opened as a hefty +7 underdog to Kansas City for the league opener, which is set to be played on Thursday, Sept. 7.
The Lions already got a taste of some preseason hype last year as the subject of HBO’s Hard Knocks, but that may ultimately pale in comparison to the steam behind Dan Campbell’s squad going into 2023. A 9-8 record and narrow playoff miss a year ago has now officially been parlayed into a premium primetime season-opening spot.
Detroit will once again roll with Goff at quarterback, but the Lions revamped their backfield this offseason by swapping out D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams for David Montgomery and explosive 12th overall pick Jahmyr Gibbs. One ding on an otherwise bright outlook is the season-opening four-game gambling-related suspension for second-year wideout Jameson Williams, from whom a potential breakout year is expected.
On defense, a flurry of offseason additions that include new corners in Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Mosley, along with big projected sophomore campaigns from Malcolm Rodriguez and Aidan Hutchinson, could lead to Detroit carrying over the considerable late-season momentum it built on that side of the ball.
The Chiefs, as most Super Bowl winners do, sustained some offseason losses, but they involved players the team deemed fully replaceable. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ronald Jones, Mecole Hardman, Juan Thornhill, Orlando Brown and Frank Clark were among the noteworthy departures. Yet, some of those subtractions were addressed with the additions of capable young veterans such as Jawaan Taylor, Drue Tranquill and Mike Edwards, while some of the others are being addressed in-house.
However, the core of Patrick Mahomes, Isaiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon and Travis Kelce remains, and big leaps are expected from holdovers Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore, as well as rookie second-round pick Rashee Rice. As has been the case throughout the Andy Reid-Mahomes era, KC’s foundational offensive philosophy of unbridled aggression should remain a constant beginning with this season-opening clash.
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
The Panthers will be sporting a new look on offense this season, and their first official test drive comes against a division rival they expect to battle in the standings all season. Naturally, top overall pick Bryce Young is the face of the revamped Frank Reich-led offense, while Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, DJ Chark and Hayden Hurst are the major skill-position assets that will serve as fellow first-year Panthers.
The Falcons have some intriguing new pieces on that side of the ball, with eighth overall pick Bijan Robinson joining Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson to form one of the most versatile backfields in the league. The receiver corps has undergone some transition behind Drake London and sports a new No. 2 option in Mack Hollins, while Bud Dupree, Jeff Okudah, Calais Campbell and Jesse Bates are among the notable new additions on defense.
The Falcons are early 2.5-point home favorites, although that number could see some movement if Young shines this summer.
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
The 49ers had another impressive regular season that ended in postseason disappointment in 2022, as a 13-4 record eventually gave way to a 31-7 NFC Championship Game loss to the Eagles. San Francisco did seemingly discover a new starting quarterback option in Brock Purdy, which has led to some talk of Trey Lance being traded before next season. Whoever is under center will still have access to the Deebo Samuel-Brandon Aiyuk-George Kittle trio, as well as two outstanding backs in Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell.
The Steelers also saw a rookie signal-caller make significant strides in 2022, with first-round pick Kenny Pickett seeing action in 13 games and heading into training camp as the clear-cut starter. Najee Harris broke out with his first 1,000-yard season as well, while rookie wideout George Pickens eclipsed the 800-yard mark. Pickens will also have accomplished veteran Allen Robinson to throw to this season, while Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts and Patrick Peterson are key new members of the defense.
The 49ers open as 3-point road favorites, a split San Fran was just 2-4 ATS in last season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
The Buccaneers will begin the post-Tom Brady era again with either Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask or even John Wolford set to serve as his less-than-inspiring successor. The change under center makes Tampa Bay one of the toughest teams to prognosticate heading into the season, but whoever does win the job will at least have an impressive array of holdover skill-position weapons that include Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton.
The Vikings’ first year under new head coach Kevin O’Connell was largely a success in terms of the regular season, but the carriage quickly turned into a pumpkin with a 31-24 wild-card loss to the Giants. Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook (for now), Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn are among the key offensive returnees, and there’s plenty of optimism surrounding first-round pick Jordan Addison.
The Vikings are early seven-point home favorites, a split Minnesota was 4-5 ATS in last season.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
The Bengals enjoyed another standout season under Joe Burrow in 2022, and while the quest to repeat as AFC champs ended in a heartbreaking 23-20 defeat at the hands of the Chiefs. Cincinnati returns all of its key pieces on the offensive side of the ball, but there are still some questions regarding Joe Mixon’s availability due to a pending court case, and whether he’ll be a salary-cap casualty prior to that even becoming an issue. If the Bengals indeed opt to cut ties, rookie fifth-round pick Chase Brown, who fell just short of 1,700 yards rushing as a senior at Illinois, could be a plug-in replacement.
The Browns will have a chance to see what Deshaun Watson is capable of with a normal offseason and a chance to serve as a starter from Week 1. Cleveland returns Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku, while Elijah Moore and Marquise Goodwin are speedy newcomers that will give Watson no shortage of weapons when dropping back.
The Bengals notably open as 2.5-point road favorites, although the Browns handed Cincy a 32-13 loss at FirstEnergy Stadium last season.
Houston Texans (+9.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
The Texans are starting over yet again, but they’re set to enter their latest new era with quite a tailwind that began with what could prove to be a highly prudent head coaching hire in DeMeco Ryans. Houston followed it up with a have-their-cake-and-eat-it-too first round in the draft that saw them snag both C.J. Stroud and the consensus best defensive player available in Will Anderson Jr. Houston also appears to have shopped intelligently in free agency, bringing in proven pieces with plenty of tread on their tires such as Devin Singletary, Robert Woods, Dalton Schultz, Denzel Perryman and Jimmie Ward.
The Ravens and Lamar Jackson finally came to terms on his long-awaited contract extension, and Baltimore primed the pump prior to that with the signings of Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor in free agency. Fully healthy versions of J.K. Dobbins and Rashod Bateman — and high-upside first-round pick Zay Flowers — also figure to make a significant impact in Baltimore’s fortunes, especially after Dobbins and Bateman had injury-shortened 2022 seasons.
The Ravens unsurprisingly open as up to 9.5-point home favorites.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5)
Expectations in Jacksonville are higher than any time in recent memory as the Jaguars look to build on last year’s trip to the divisional round in Doug Pederson’s first year as head coach. Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram all enjoyed breakout seasons, and they’re now joined by one high-upside asset in Calvin Ridley, who could prove to very worthy of the chance Jacksonville is taking on him after he last played in October 2021.
The Colts will hope they’ll eventually have a Lawrence-type talent on their hands in Anthony Richardson, one of the more polarizing top-end quarterback prospects in this year’s draft. The general consensus is the Florida product still needs time to develop, so Indy will turn to Gardner Minshew to hold down the fort for the time being while working with a talented skill-position group that spearheaded by incumbents Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce. On the defensive side, the Colts will hope one-time Pro Bowl linebacker Shaquille Leonard is back to full health, as Bobby Okereke departed to the Giants in free agency.
The Jaguars open as up to 4-point road favorites, although Jacksonville took a 34-27 loss in Indianapolis last season.
Arizona Cardinals (+6) at Washington Commanders (-6)
The Cardinals look for a reset as the Jonathan Gannon Era begins, and for the moment, it appears Kyler Murray will still have DeAndre Hopkins as one of his top targets after plenty of trade rumors swirled around the veteran wideout earlier in the offseason. A full season with Hopkins and Marquise Brown together would undoubtedly do wonders for Arizona’s air attack, but it remains to be seen if Murray will be available to open the season and play in this game after last year’s ACL tear.
The pending sale of the Commanders from Dan Snyder to Josh Harris’ ownership group officially opens a new chapter for the storied franchise, but head coach Ron Rivera remains at the helm and will be operating with a clean slate at quarterback in the form of either Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett. There was very little significant personnel turnover otherwise for the team this offseason, and the Commanders will hope Chase Young will be motivated enough in what is now a contract year to get back to his rookie-season form.
With Murray’s status still up in the air in the immediate wake of the schedule release, it’s the Commanders listed as up to 6-point home favorites.
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
The Titans head into 2023 in a relatively unusual phase, as Tennessee seems to be about as middle of the road as it gets. Ryan Tannehill still gives the quarterback position stability for the time being, but there’s some question as to how matters shake out between Malik Willis and rookie second-round pick Will Levis for the No. 2 job. Derrick Henry, Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo are other unquestioned bright spots on offense, while the defense’s run-stopping prowess could improve with the offseason addition of talented young linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.
The buzz is heavy around the Saints, which have their best option under center since Drew Brees’ retirement in Derek Carr. The veteran offseason acquisition should have Michael Thomas back healthy, as the recently oft-injured wideout is expected to be ready for training camp. A full-strength version of Thomas paired with last year’s rookie sensation Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed certainly seems like a solid foundation for Carr. He’ll also have Jamaal Williams and Alvin Kamara as an impressive 1-2 backfield punch, although there will be questions regarding Kamara’s availability until his pending legal case is settled.
NFL Week 1 odds show the Saints opened as early 4-point favorites, a line that could potentially expand if Kamara and Thomas are eventually confirmed available for the start of the season.
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
The Raiders swapped out one veteran quarterback for another by acquiring Jimmy Garoppolo to replace the departed Derek Carr. Las Vegas could have opted to stick with late-season sensation Jarret Stidham, but in Garoppolo, they go with a quarterback that’s even more familiar with head coach Josh McDaniels’ system and bank on him eventually building the kind of rapport with Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow that Carr enjoyed. One key asset from seasons past Jimmy G won’t have is Darren Waller, who was moved the Giants in a rather surprising trade.
The Broncos made plenty of headlines last offseason with the acquisition of Russell Wilson, and they then were forced to go out and make another major and expensive move this winter to salvage that initial investment. With new head coach Sean Payton at the helm, Wilson should have a much higher chance of success than last season, and an eventual full return to health by running back Javonte Williams from his serious knee injury would be especially pivotal to Denver’s chances, even if it doesn’t happen until closer to midseason.
The Broncos open as 3.5-point home favorites when it comes to NFL Week 1 odds boards, although preseason could help eventually alter that line.
Los Angeles Rams (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
The Rams go into 2023 with a good bit more uncertainty surrounding them than in recent years. Less than two years removed from a Super Bowl win, L.A. still has Matthew Stafford under center, although the veteran is coming back from a serious spinal cord contusion that cut his season short in 2022. Top target Cooper Kupp is also rebounding from tightrope surgery on his ankle, while on the other side of the ball, shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey was traded to the Dolphins. There are also some depth questions behind Kupp and Van Jefferson now that Allen Robinson has moved on to Pittsburgh.
The Seahawks feel they’ve found an answer at quarterback for the foreseeable future in Geno Smith, rewarding the one-time journeyman with a $105 million contract extension this offseason following his out-of-nowhere career-best season in 2022. Top targets DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett return, and Kenneth Walker showed more than enough as a rookie to make former backfield mate Rashaad Penny expendable. The defense also gets foundational linebacker Bobby Wagner back after a one-year tenure with the Rams, and the hope is former Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams is ready for the start of the regular season after missing 16-plus games in 2022 with a quad injury.
The Seahawks open as 5.5-point home favorites when looking at NFL Week 1 odds, a split they were only 1-4 in last season.
Green Bay Packers (+2.5) at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Aaron Rodgers is now in the Big Apple, but there will be no shortage of eyes on the Packers as the Jordan Love Era officially begins. Preseason prognostications will undoubtedly be across the spectrum for Green Bay, but the team’s offense could surprise given its array of talented skill-position assets.
Love could acclimate quickly to the daunting task of filling Rodgers’ shoes due to the arsenal of young talent surrounding him. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs should profile as one of the league’s most explosive starting receiver duos, while Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will once again serve as one of the most effective 1-2 backfield tandems.
There’s no shortage of upside on the Bears as well, considering the way Justin Fields finished the season in 2022, the offseason acquisition of a legitimate, young No. 1 receiver in DJ Moore, and the arrival of bruising lead back D’Onta Foreman.
Factoring in an expected return to health for Darnell Mooney and the addition of stud linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in free agency, and Chicago could be one of the NFC’s most improved squads, a potential development supported by the big move in the Bears’ preseason Super Bowl LVIII odds.
The Bears open as slim 1-point favorites on NFL Week 1 odds boards, but that line could well flip over the next few months if Love demonstrates this summer he seems ready to hit the ground running from Week 1.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at New England Patriots (+4.5)
The Eagles retain a very encouraging outlook for 2023 as they seek to defend their NFC title. Naturally, the Jalen Hurts-A.J.Brown-DeVonta Smith triumvirate naturally leads the way, but Philadelphia arguably also upgraded its backfield by swapping out Miles Sanders for D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny.
On the defensive side of the ball, the prudent free-agent additions of Nicholas Morrow and Terrell Edmunds on economical one-year deals could prove to be rewarding bargain signings, while the ability to retain the starting cornerback duo of James Bradberry and Darius Slay was critical for Philadelphia’s chances of ultimately emerging from what should be an ultra-competitive conference once again.
The Patriots will, first and foremost, have to settle their quarterback position this summer, especially since the defensive side of the ball seems to be in fairly strong shape. Mac Jones didn’t exactly endear himself with his sophomore-campaign performance, and he could face serious competition from second-year signal-caller Bailey Zappe.
New England’s running game appears formidable with Rhamondre Stevenson and new arrival James Robinson in the fold, but a wideout corps helmed by the inconsistent JuJu Smith-Schuster and a talented but aging DeVante Parker may not prove up to the task of keeping up with some of the conference’s upper-echelon squads.
The Eagles are somewhat surprisingly narrow 3.5-point road favorites in NFL Week 1 odds first look lines, a split Philly was only 2-5 ATS in last season.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants (+3)
The Cowboys made it as far as the divisional round before narrowly falling short against the 49ers, and Dallas is primed for another run with the help of some key offseason additions on both sides of the ball. On offense, six-time 1,000-yard receiver Brandin Cooks was acquired via trade from the Texans, and veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore arrived from Indianapolis.
Dak Prescott and Cee Dee Lamb remain the most important cogs of the offense, and it remans to be seen how Tony Pollard will handle what’s expected to be a true lead-back role for the first time. Then, pass-rushing bookends DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons are joined in the front four by first-round pick Mazi Smith and the emerging Osa Odighizuwa to form what should be a daunting first line of defense.
On the other side, plenty of the Big Apple’s attention has been on the Jets for obvious reasons, but the Giants elevated expectations with a stellar first season under head coach Brian Daboll. The previously embattled Daniel Jones certainly seemed to thrive under the head man’s tutelage with career bests in passing (3,205) and rushing (708) yardage.
Saquon Barkley also looked like himself again, and the additional explosiveness the unit lacked at times may have been addressed by the offseason additions of Parris Campbell and Darren Waller. And defensively, the arrival of Bobby Okereke, who compiled 283 total tackles in the last two seasons for the Colts, could certainly take a unit that was a sieve with 146.3 rushing yards per game surrendered a year go to a completely different level.
NFL Week 1 odds show the Cowboys are slim 2-point road favorites after sweeping New York a season ago, but the Giants were 3-1 ATS as home underdogs in 2022.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at New York Jets (+1.5)
The Bills put together another stellar regular season in 2022 that was followed by yet another crushing postseason blow. Buffalo’s surprisingly poor performance at home in a 27-10 loss to the Bengals in the divisional round left Sean McDermott’s squad with yet another offseason of wondering what could have been, and Buffalo will get an immediate litmus test of where it stands in this season-opening primetime matchup.
The biggest names on offense – Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis – remain the same, while the backfield features former Patriot Damien Harris and capable veteran Latavius Murray as the explosive James Cook’s new running mates. A big leap is also expected from second-year speedster Khalil Shakir, while offseason addition Trent Sherfield rounds out what should be a highly versatile top half of the wideout depth chart.
Naturally, the biggest story on the other side is future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, who’s joined by former Packers mates Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb as noteworthy offseason additions. Speedy Mecole Hardman could also prove to be a prudent acquisition if he’s hitting on all cylinders physically, while Breece Hall’s eventual return to full health will take care of the running game.
New York’s defense may naturally be overshadowed by the headline-grabbing developments on the other side of the ball, but Gang Green’s unit has the potential to be one of the league’s best once again. The Jets surrendered the fourth-fewest total yards per game a year ago (311.1), and the addition of tackling machine Chuck Clark at strong safety could make the unit even stouter.
The Bills open as slim 1.5-point road favorites when looking at NFL Week 1 odds, a split they were 4-3-1 ATS in a season ago. In turn, the Jets were just 2-3 against the number as a home underdog, but Rodgers’ presence naturally makes what came before him largely irrelevant.