10. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
Arkansas is likely to score in bunches, but its ability to improve upon a 7-6 campaign hinges on the defense. KJ Jefferson is among the SEC’s most talented quarterbacks, and he hands the ball off to one of college football’s most explosive players in running back Raheim Sanders. That duo can’t win games alone, though, and in order for the Razorbacks to get back to the level of play that saw them win nine games two years ago, they have to avoid shootouts. They bring in a pair of new co-coordinators and numerous transfers, generating some optimism on the defensive side of the ball.
9. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
Many tried to awaken this sleeping college football titan, but Matt Rhule may be the one to actually deliver results. After successfully building Temple and Baylor from rubble into conference title contenders, he is qualified to attempt to do the same at Nebraska. If it does, in fact, come to fruition, the rebuild will take more than just one year, but transfer portal additions like former Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims should help him get the ball rolling early in his tenure. If his blueprint works in Lincoln, Rhule could have the Huskers back to prominence within three years.
8. AUBURN TIGERS
Auburn needed to hit a home run with its hire after the Bryan Harsin era crashed and burned before it even got off the ground, and the Tigers may have hit it out of the park with Hugh Freeze. It seemed like only a matter of time until Freeze got another shot at the Power Five level after leading Liberty to four consecutive winning seasons, and he already has Auburn trending in the right direction after compiling the No. 4 transfer class in the nation. The Tigers are at risk of missing the postseason for the second year in a row, but their climb back to SEC West relevance may not take long.
7. COLORADO BUFFALOES
Colorado might be the most difficult team to project given that half of its roster is entirely new and its head coach — albeit successful at Jackson State — remains untested at the FBS level. The highest-upside outcome is that the Buffaloes go from ranking as one of the worst teams in the country to reaching bowl eligibility in the span of a year, but the more likely result is a bottom-half finish in the Pac-12 with a handful of competitive losses. Deion Sanders made a statement when he put together the highest-ranked transfer class in the country, and while that talent upgrade will undoubtedly bring more success, this rebuild will take more than just one offseason to complete.
6. IOWA STATE CYCLONES
Considering that Matt Campbell guided Iowa State to five of its best seasons of all-time in consecutive years before taking a step backward last fall, he deserves the benefit of the doubt. A closer look at the Cyclones’ 4-8 campaign reveals that seven of those losses came by single-digits and six finished as one-score games. With better execution and luck in 2023, there is no reason why Iowa State should not be able to return to bowl eligibility, especially given that its defense should again be among the best units in the Big 12.
5. TEXAS LONGHORNS
The “Is Texas back?” storyline is exhausted by now, but 2023 appears to be the year in which the Longhorns finally have what it takes to compete at the highest level again. Talent has never been the issue, of course, but it is an even greater strength this year as a healthy Quinn Ewers could easily prove to be one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12, if not the country. The pressure to return to championship contention is at an all-time high with Texas set to move to the SEC next year. Can Steve Sarkisian handle it?
4. OKLAHOMA SOONERS
It is entirely possible that Brent Venables is not up to the task and that his tenure as Oklahoma’s head coach goes down as a disappointment. At the same time, it is true that one year is far too small a sample size to judge his leadership abilities. Yes, the Sooners are coming off their worst season in 25 years, but with each of their final four losses coming by exactly three points, they were well within striking distance of tacking on a few more victories. If those close games break their way in 2023, Venables’ first year at the helm will look like nothing but a blip on the radar.
3. WISCONSIN BADGERS
Wisconsin made the most impactful head coaching hire of the college football offseason in handing Luke Fickell the first Power Five gig of his career. He remains the only coach to lead a Group of Five program to the Playoff during a 57-18 stint at Cincinnati and now inherits a Wisconsin team with even greater resources and tradition. Fickell also built an all-star staff around him which includes offensive coordinator Phil Longo, who designed one of the nation’s most prolific groups last year at North Carolina. Pair this staff with a capable roster, and the Badgers have the potential to compete for Big Ten titles on an annual basis.
2. MIAMI HURRICANES
Maybe it was unfair to expect Miami to make huge strides in just one year under Mario Cristobal, but a team with as much talent as the Hurricanes should not have missed the postseason, let alone lost five games by double digits — including a 14-point defeat at home by Middle Tennessee. With Miami continuing to recruit at a high level and add even more high-end talent via the transfer portal, there is no excuse for a second-straight disappointing year. Hiring Shannon Dawson and Lance Guidry to revitalize the offense and defense, respectively, could help the Hurricanes make the most of their impressive roster.
1. TEXAS A&M AGGIES
No team has a better recipe for a breakthrough year than Texas A&M, which boasts a No. 4 ranking in the 2023 Blue-Chip Ratio after compiling consecutive highly-ranked recruiting classes and which hired one of the game’s most established offensive minds in Bobby Petrino this offseason. The offense, which scored just 22.8 points per game, was the Aggies’ biggest problem last year and held them out of bowl eligibility despite entering the campaign with College Football Playoff aspirations. Jimbo Fisher proved in year five of his tenure that the floor is a losing season, but Texas A&M has a wide range of possible outcomes in 2023 that includes SEC title contention.