If one specific trend caught my eye on the team angles this week it was this: Purdue is 1-15 ATS (6.3%) as a home conference favorite since 2018. I know the Boilermakers are slightly improved this season, but they lost each of their last two games, including once as a favorite over Washington, and I have a hard time ignoring that until they prove they are conclusively better. And yes, I do know that Maryland recently fired its head coach and hasn’t won since 9/12, but this is a chance for the Terps to end their long Big Ten skid.
My effective play-by-play numbers say that this line should be -3.3, not -6.5. My power ratings are indicating Purdue should only be a -2 point favorite. In addition, with Purdue off the 14-point loss at Penn State, head coach Barry Odom’s team unfortunately falls into this system that comes up often: Conference home favorites coming off a double-digit conference loss are just 224-301 ATS (42.9%) since 2016. With 35% of the bets but 66% of the money on Maryland at DraftKings, it seems the sharps may be on the Terps train too.