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Archived: Horse Racing Picks Wednesday: Best Value Bets at Tampa Bay Downs


Apr 08, 2020 EST


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Race 1

Time: 12:30 p.m. ET

The favorite in this in this one-mile and 40-yard dirt claiming race is the No. 6 Segismundo (5-2), coming off of a third-place effort on the turf where he looked to be the likely winner until late in the stretch when he ducked out into traffic and was disqualified from second.

He moves over to the dirt where his effort two starts back (64 Beyer) when he drew clear to win by nearly seven lengths on the main track in Tampa would be fast enough to win again here.

But he will have to rate behind pace-setting No. 7 Upper Crown (6-1), who could wire this field, and may have to put away the No. 2 What a Hoot (9-2), another turf-to-dirt mover, earlier than anticipated.

The No. 4 Fledermaus (7-2) also showed early speed in his last start, winning by six lengths at the same distance after moving to dirt, and the No. 8 The Kahn (4-1) should improve in his second start off of the claim for leading trainer Gerald S. Bennett.

The favorite No. 6 Segismundo hasn’t missed the board in his past six starts, however, and is 2-1-1 in five starts over fast tracks. And the competitive field means that he should come to post at a square number.

Race 2

Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

The No. 9 V K Legacy (3-1) is favored in this 1 1/16-mile maiden turf race for fillies and mares and comes in with the two highest last-out Beyer figures on turf (51, 51) in the field.

She finished third in her last start (by a neck) over two other competitors in this race, the No. 1 Two Step Beat (9-2) and No. 3 Action Absolute Ds (6-1), but only the former has shown the ability to pass horses late, and also owns the highest career Beyer figure (54) on the grass in this field.

The No. 8 All American Jewel (4-1) can also come with a late kick and should compete for a prize if she runs back to her start from just one week ago.

In a maiden I will always look for a price horse and I landed on the lightly raced No. 6 Lilys From Paris (12-1), who should continue to improve in her third career start, but I’m not entirely against the favorite.

Race 3

Time: 1:30 p.m. ET

This is a competitive six-furlong dirt-sprint claimer for three-year-old fillies, with the No. 7 Tipsy Again (7-2) favored in her third career start after winning by six lengths at 5 1/2 furlongs in Tampa on March 20, posting a race-leading 56 Beyer speed figure.

The No. 1 Bareback Fun (4-1) should bounce back off of a poor effort in her second start after breaking her maiden with a 54 Beyer last December.

And the No. 4 Graycliff (6-1) is in the same situation, though her debut (45 Beyer) wasn’t as strong. But she posted a bullet workout  (1st of 89 runners) on March 29th and looks primed to take a step forward adding blinkers.

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