The long, strange, extremely odd and often controversial offseason finally ended over the weekend with a shortened Week 1 kicking off the 2020 college football season where nothing is normal. There are only 76 of 130 FBS teams competing. Four of the 10 conferences have opted out of playing this fall, as have a couple individual programs. There is the possibility that we wind up with a fall and spring national champion, though the College Football Playoff has committed to holding its schedule firm. Of course, all of that can only happen if we actually get a complete season as college football battles not just itself but the raging COVID-19 pandemic.
There is no better way to conclude the offseason, however, than with the typical slate of prognostications. And while ours may have been delayed, OTL Sports is here to do our part with our predictions, expert picks and opinionated takes on the 2020 college football season ahead.
In addition to projecting the national champion and College Football Playoff, we decided to take a look at which teams may just miss the four-team field, which programs are the most overrated and underrated nationally, and which coaches and players stand the best chance at winning year-end honors.
2020 national champion
Clemson: Notre Dame is in the ACC this season, but does anyone believe that’s going to be enough to keep Clemson from reaching the College Football Playoff? I certainly do not. So, with nearly a free pass to the playoff as well as the best quarterback in the country, how could you not back Clemson to win it all in 2020? Even if worst came to worst and Trevor Lawrence opts out to prepare for the 2021 NFL Draft, the Tigers still have another five-star behind him in D.J. Uiagalelei.
Alabama: The decisions of DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris and Alex Leatherwood to return for their senior seasons were significant. These were players who took part in the youth movement that turned the national championship game against Georgia. Leatherwood came in after an injury early in the third quarter, Harris ended up leading the Crimson Tide in rushing, and Smith — with his one 41-yard game-winning overtime catch from Tua Tagovailoa — was the team’s leading receiver. All true freshman, all playing a key role in one of the most memorable title games ever. They know, better than anyone else in the locker room, what it takes to survive the ups and downs of a playoff campaign and finish as national champions. After missing the CFP for the first time ever and after two years of falling short of the biggest goal of the season, I think the national championship standard set by the senior class is the kind of motivational edge that can make a difference during a title push.
Most overrated teams
LSU: It’s a reach to argue that a team returning only five starters can compete for a division title, let alone a national title. And the Tigers aren’t just replacing players. They are also replacing defensive coordinator Dave Aranda and passing game coordinator Joe Brady, who was widely credited with writing the script for Joe Burrow’s Heisman Trophy-winning campaign. Sure, LSU probably deserves a favorable preseason ranking since it is the defending national champion. But ultimately there is nowhere to go but down for this team. The Tigers are likely start 3-0 with wins over Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Missouri. But they are destined to be exposed soon after in a stretch of four games that includes Florida, Auburn and Alabama.
Texas A&M: Jimbo Fisher has his best team at TAMU. It is full of impact seniors. The schedule is easier. Jimbo has settled in in Year 3. The problem remains what it was in Year 1. In any given year the Aggies are fighting LSU, Auburn and Alabama in the SEC West. For starters. This year, Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin join the hyper-competitive division. Sure, no one is expecting the Aggies to win the West. But that’s part of the problem in Year 3 in College Station: No is one is still expecting the Aggies to win the West. Always, um, active TAMU supporters expect more for their $75 million. Through two seasons, Fisher is 9-7 in the SEC. That must change. In Year 3, HE must seriously challenge for the division title. This a prediction that he won’t.
Oklahoma: As a program, the Sooners are a no-brainer pick as the class of the Big 12 and annual playoff contender. As a coach, Lincoln Riley is without a doubt one of the best in the sport already with a long and bright future of success ahead. But I’m not ready to follow the masses so ready to copy and paste another Big 12 title and CFP appearance into the record books for Oklahoma in 2020. There’s a lot of belief in Spencer Rattler upholding the Heisman-contending ways of Riley’s quarterbacks, and not a lot of discussion on the team’s depth at running back (Trey Sermon transferred, Kennedy Brooks opted out) or the receiving production deficit after CeeDee Lamb’s departure. Chances are good that Rattler will lead the Sooners to the playoff; I just don’t think it’s going to happen this season.
Auburn: There’s a negative connotation that comes with the word overrated, but to be clear, I don’t think Auburn’s going to be bad. I’m just not part of the group who believes it to be a top-10 team. I have serious concerns about the team’s offensive line and how it will hold up in a 10-game SEC schedule that won’t allow it many chances to breathe. That line will also be tasked with protecting Bo Nix, a quarterback who already comes with plenty of accuracy issues. I’m not sure he’ll be able to improve upon them if he’s under a lot of pressure. These offensive concerns limit Auburn’s overall ceiling.
Texas: Really? We’re doing this again? The notion that “Texas is back” has been a running joke since the Longhorns topped Notre Dame in double overtime in 2016. Suddenly, this is going to be the season? Nah. Not buying it. Sure, Sam Ehlinger is a fantastic quarterback and has experience on his side. But losing wide receivers Devin Duvernay and Colin Johnson is a big deal — especially considering the disjointed offseason that has limited 7-on-7 work. Is the defense going to improve upon the 6.1 yards per play that it allowed last season? Probably. Experience is on Texas’ side there. But I don’t have the confidence that it will take enough of a step forward to slow down the high-octane offenses that it will be playing in the Big 12. I’ll have to see it before I believe it. After all, shouldn’t that be everybody’s opinion toward Texas?
UCF: Don’t get me wrong … UCF is still a good football team. The Knights just aren’t at the level they were a couple of years ago when they rode a 25-game overall winning streak and a 27-game regular season streak. That is still what people think of when they think of the Knights program. Now, UCF is likely the third best team in the AAC behind Cincinnati and Memphis. Having 10 players opt out this season certainly will not help the Knights’ quest to do better.
Most underrated teams
Notre Dame: If preseason league favorites Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma each make the CFP, who will be the fourth team in the field? A Georgia team replacing nearly everyone on offense? An LSU team with just five starters back? A Florida team that must navigate a 10-game SEC schedule? No. How about a team coming off an 11-2 season that returns its star quarterback and entire starting offensive line from a top-15 scoring offense. That team is Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are clearly the second-best team in the ACC, and if they can beat Clemson once — either in the regular season or conference title game — it’s hard to imagine them getting left out of the CFP.
Cincinnati: You wanted a CFP intruder, you got one. With Memphis losing Kenneth Gainwell and UCF losing 10 opt outs, the Bearcats are something close to a lock to win the American. This is the year wacky things could happen to allow a Group of Five team to get playoff consideration. Look, it’s probably going to take the SEC to have a collective off year. Still, coach Luke Fickell should be saluted for what he’s done. Cincinnati lives in the shadow of Ohio State. Fickell has applied Jim Tressel’s roster-building ability to make the Bearcats the nation’s best Group of Five program going into 2020. Cincinnati will be part of the playoff conversation if it goes 11-0.
UCF: I don’t know if we’re going to see an AAC team crack the CFP this year. All I know is that, if it does happen, the odds are far greater that it’s going to be UCF than anybody else in the conference. The Knights lost three games last year, but this is still the most talented team in that conference, and in a season where there are too many variables to count, I’m leaning on talent to win in the long run.
Miami (FL): I love, love, love Houston transfer QB D’Eriq King. Perhaps more importantly, I think the marriage between King and first-year offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee will have the fire of a couple who meet on an exotic beach in the Caribbean. Offense has been a massive problem at UM for a long time, and that duo will change it in a hurry. Losing defensive lineman Gregory Rousseau to an opt out will hurt, but Temple transfer Quincy Roche is the most important transfer of the offseason. Yes, more important than King. In an ACC where Clemson and Notre Dame are the known commodities … I’ll take the Hurricanes to come close to reaching that level.
Louisville: Since Clemson has become a national powerhouse, we tend to think of the ACC as one heavyweight and 13 other teams. I actually think that changes a bit in 2020. Yes, Clemson is the favorite again — and deservedly so — but Notre Dame is in the picture as a one-year member and other programs like North Carolina and Florida State are getting some buzz. It’s more crowded at the top than you might expect, which doesn’t leave a lot of love for Louisville. In his first season, though, coach Scott Satterfield led the Cardinals to eight wins — one year after Bobby Petrino drove the program off the road and into a ditch, so to speak. QB Micale Cunningham was quietly one of the ACC’s more efficient passers, even if he wasn’t throwing it 30+ times per game. Louisville has a tough stretch in the middle of the year, including a trip to Notre Dame, but the Cardinals might make some noise with eight, maybe nine wins.
Iowa State: When people talk Big 12 football, the conversation starts and sometimes ends with Oklahoma, winner of the last five regular season titles. If they talk about anyone else, it’s Texas, but usually it’s about whether or not the Longhorns are “back.” When people talk about ISU, it’s typically about which team will steal its coach. Matt Campbell has done a great job bringing the Cyclones up to the top tier of teams chasing the Sooners. Did you know that Iowa State has the third most conference wins in the last three seasons? I expect that to be true after this season as well.