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Advanced Week 2 NFL Outlook


Sep 15, 2020 EST


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NFL Betting Lines 2020: Official plays

Atlanta Falcons (+5) at Dallas Cowboys, Over/Under 52

While Atlanta lost by double digits to Seattle, Matt Ryan torched the Seahawks defense with 450 yards through the air. The Cowboys had a hard time slowing down the Rams passing game on Sunday Night, as Robert Woods had six catches for 105 yards, and the Rams screen game with Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown was a puzzle that Dallas couldn’t solve.

The Cowboys will be without linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, which is a big blow to their defense up the middle. If the Rams can slice and dice their secondary, I can only imagine what Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and company will be able to do.

Atlanta was a respectable 4-3 against the spread as an away underdog in 2019, and Dallas was 4-3 as a home favorite, so two evenly matched teams in this exact situation means this should be close.

ADVANCED Pick: ATL (+5): The Cowboys offense didn’t do anything spectacular against a Rams defense that is average at best outside of Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Everyone tells me about their weapons and how great they’ll be; I didn’t see it. I think Atlanta and their offense keep it close.

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-4), Over/Under 45.5

Wilson put on a clinic Week 1 in Atlanta, throwing as many touchdowns as incompletions (four) and showing why he is a top-three quarterback in the league.

The Patriots, while they beat Miami, were locked in a hard-fought battle that was a lot closer than the score showed. The Dolphins were in the red zone when Ryan Fitzpatrick was intercepted. Sure, Cam Newton was 15/19 passing, but they relied far too much on him to run the ball, and Seattle is much better on both sides of the ball than Miami.

While Seattle was just 4-6-1 as favorites last season, it seems they have finally given full control of the offense to Wilson and the passing game.

ADVANCED Pick: SEA (-4): This Patriots team has a lot of holes, and much like he did to Atlanta, Wilson will expose New England’s weak points.

Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins, Over/Under 41

What a week it was for Josh Allen and the Bills. Allen had a career-high 312 passing yards, and two touchdowns as Buffalo beat the Jets 27-17 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the score projects.

The Bills defense showed that the hype of the off-season was warranted. Buffalo intercepted Sam Darnold and recovered a Jets fumble while also holding New York to just 52 yards on the ground. The Dolphins shot themselves in the foot multiple times against a Patriots team that is much less talented than Buffalo, so expect the Bills defense to feast on Fitzpatrick and the offense of Miami.

The Bills were very good on the road last season, going 6-1-2 against the spread as the away team, so expect that to carry over with even more talent in Buffalo this season.

ADVANCED Pick: BUF (-5.5): Buffalo gets the benefit of starting the season off against two teams in the division in which they have far more talent. If the Patriots can beat Miami by 10, Buffalo should be able to do that and then some.

New York Giants (+6) at Chicago Bears, Over/Under 42

The Giants getting six this week is a steal. They looked solid against Pittsburgh in the pass game. Daniel Jones and Darius Slayton connected for a long touchdown, and they had a 19 play drive, even if it was cut off by a bad choice by Jones that resulted in an interception.

The Bears had a big fourth-quarter comeback against the Lions, but Detroit was without Kenny Golladay and Jeff Okudah and were one D’Andre Swift dropped touchdown away from winning the game. Plus, Allen Robinson is unhappy and wants an extension, which can cause friction and be a distraction throughout the week.

The Bears were 3-5 against the spread as the home team last season. I think the Giants are the better offense by far, and Chicago’s offense will struggle.

ADVANCED Pick: NYG (+6): Don’t expect Saquon Barkley to be held to just six yards on the ground again. He’ll bounce back, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Giants won the game outright

Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Houston Texans, Over/Under 51.5

As great as Deshaun Watson is, he lacks any sort of major talent on either side of the ball. David Johnson looked solid Thursday night against the Chiefs, but not nearly impressive enough to justify trading away DeAndre Hopkins to acquire him. Defensively, their secondary is mediocre at best, and J.J. Watt is on the back nine of his career.

The Ravens and Lamar Jackson rolled over the Texans in this matchup last season, and they got better while Houston got worse. The lack of weapons for Houston is a bad matchup against a Ravens defense that got better in the front seven and still field a dominant secondary.

Baltimore was 10-6 against the spread in the regular season last year, including a stomping of these Houston Texans.

ADVANCED Pick: BAL (-7): If Week 1 is a sign of things to come for both teams, Baltimore should roll to 2-0.

NFL Betting Lines 2020: Official leans

Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, Over/Under 41.5

The line for this game started at 6.5 and moved to 7.5 shortly after; Vegas likes the Steelers.

That said, Drew Lock and the Broncos looked good against the Titans. They have a lot of young weapons including, Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant, who both played well Monday night. Plus, their offensive line played very stellar, which was the biggest question mark coming into the season.

Denver is better than the Giants, whom Pittsburgh started off a little slow against. If they start off slow against Denver, it could be trouble.

ADVANCED Lean: DEN (+7.5): This is a game that could really go either way. While I will give the edge to Pittsburgh, the Broncos defense is very good, and their offense will play better than the Giants played the Steelers on Monday night.

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at Cleveland Browns Over/Under 43.5

Joe Burrow showed that he could flat out play against one of the best defenses in the NFL. If not for a horrible attempt at a field goal, the Bengals take the Chargers to overtime, and Burrow possibly starts 1-0 as an NFL quarterback.

This feels like a must-win for the Browns, and while it seems like the Bengals are a better team, the Browns still have a lot of talent offensively. It’s just a matter of if they can put anything together.

ADVANCED Lean: CIN (+5.5): The Browns have a depleted secondary, and the Bengals have a great trio of receivers. Joe Burrow already looks like a stud, and I think the Bengals will be competitive in a majority of their games.

Remaining Week 2 odds

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5), Over/Under 48.5
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-5.5), Over/Under 48.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-8.5), Over/Under 42.5
Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, Over/Under 46.5
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts (-3), Over/Under 47.5
San Francisco 49ers (-7) at New York Jets, Over/Under 42.5
Washington Football Team at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5), Over/Under 46.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) at Los Angeles Chargers, Over/Under 46.5
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders, Over/Under 51.5

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