Saturday is Curlin Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park, and that important Grade 1 race for 3-year-olds is supported on a strong undercard by nine stakes, five of them graded. Gulfstream will pay out the Rainbow 6 pool on Saturday, with a minimum guaranteed value of $5 million if the wager isn’t hit Thursday or Friday.
The Rainbow 6 sequence begins in race 9, the $100,000 Sand Springs on turf, and runs through the Florida Derby (Race 14). It is not going to be easy to hit with five fields containing the maximum of 12 entrants. The only race in the sequence not to pull a full field, the Grade 2 Pan American (Race 12), has a field of 10.
There also are guaranteed pools on the late pick four ($500,000) and the late pick five ($400,000).
Race 9: Sand Springs Stakes
Set for one mile on turf, the Sand Springs features the return of Newspaperofrecord (No. 5). A dominant 2-year-old in 2018, she did not live up to expectations last year while going 0 for 3 and heading to the sidelines in early July. She didn’t run poorly in her first two starts last year despite being second each time, and her ninth-place finish in the Belmont Oaks is best forgiven.
Usually on or near the front early, Newspaperofrecord was rated and became rank in the 10-furlong Belmont Oaks. She faces a tough pace scenario here and is hard to trust based on her 2019 form, but she is also hard to leave out completely in a bet like the Rainbow 6. Zofelle (2), is an in-form closer in a race with plenty of speed signed on and she has looked good winning three of her four starts since arriving from Europe. East Moon (8) is an underrated 5-year-old who is tactical. She ran some solid races late last year on turf and will be a price. La Signare (6) is a graded stakes winner who has learned to rate for Brendan Walsh.
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Race 10: Orchid Stakes
Gentle Ruler (5) really found herself when stretched out in distance in turf marathons last year, winning 5 of her 6 starts on turf and 6 of 7 overall. She’s the horse to beat as she makes her first start as a 5-year-old. Mean Mary (6) took advantage of a loose lead on a rated pace and sprinted home to bury her rivals in the Grade 3 La Prevoyante over 1 1/2 miles here in January. She is lightly raced with upside and is a contender right back, even if she doesn’t get a similarly soft trip. Elizabeth Way (12) is 2 for 2 since arriving Stateside and has used different running styles to win those races. She drew a tough post for the stretch-out from 1 3/16 miles, but she is a contender.
Race 11: Gulfstream Park Oaks
Lake Avenue (4) is shipping in from New York on relatively short rest after disappointing in the Busher three weeks ago at a very short price. She is clearly capable of better based on her juvenile form and there is a chance she was on a bad rail in the Busher. She has dangerous speed if she can rebound. Spice Is Nice (5) and Tonalist’s Shape (9) squared off in the local prep for this last month , the Grade 2 Davona Dale, and it was Tonalist’s Shape who proved best while running her career record to 5 for 5. They are both major players right back in this spot.
Race 12: Kitten’s Joy Pan American Stakes
It is early in the North American turf season and most of the top horses in this division have yet to appear, but that does not take away from the two races Zulu Alpha (9) has run in 2020. After dominating the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf with a rail-skimming ride, he came right back to crush the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida field last month in an equally strong performance. He loves this turf course, handles distance without issue, and is tactical enough to avoid being compromised by pace. Channel Cat (1) earned five triple-digit Beyers last year while winning a Grade 2 at Saratoga and placing in a pair of Grade 1 races. He did not run well after some early trouble behind Zulu Alpha in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, but he is competitive here off his best race and may get a more aggressive ride this time. For a price, I’ll use a little of Focus Group (10), a strong closer on his best day and a Grade 2 winner over this course and distance.
Race 13: Appleton Stakes
March to the Arch (3) made an impressive return to the races in January while overcoming a slow pace to defeat statebred rivals, and he had enough trouble in the stretch last time to be given the benefit of the doubt. March to the Arch finished third, beaten a neck, in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes in that last race. He is logically spotted for this and may just be better than the rest of this field. I will also use Social Paranoia (7), who never failed to show up as a 3-year-old and still has upside for Pletcher, and Mr Dumas (11), who showed turf potential last year and may have needed his first start back in the fast-paced Canadian Turf. Dr. Edgar (8) did not run well off a layoff last time but is better than that and has good early speed. He may be worth trying to get on some tickets at a price.
Race 14: Curlin Florida Derby
The feature goes through Tiz the Law (7), who looked good winning his seasonal debut, the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream, with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure while overcoming slight early trouble. He has made few mistakes so far while putting plenty of natural talent on display and is the horse to beat.
He has two serious rivals in Gouverneur Morris (5) and Independence Hall (9). Gouverneur Morris is all upside at this point, and he appeared to get in a perfect prep when finishing off a talented rival in allowance company at Tampa off a layoff. Independence Hall has already run faster than the favorite on Beyer Speed Figures, and he deserves some extra credit for keeping after a fast pace in his two-turn debut last time in the Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa before getting run down by a talented closer late.