Two games with undefeated teams are sure to catch bettors’ eyes as they both feature home dogs. The 3-0 Buffalo Bills opened as 7-point underdogs to the 3-0 New England Patriots while the 2-0-1 Detroit Lions are giving 6.5 points to the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills haven’t beaten the Patriots at New Era Field since 2011 and are 2-17 SU and 4-13-1 ATS at home vs the Pats since 2000.
The Lions, on the other hand, may be one of the biggest surprises of the league but could be in trouble vs a Chiefs offense that looks like it can’t be stopped. The Lions were 4.5-point dogs on the lookahead lines released last week but the spread officially opened at 6.5 after the Chiefs outlasted the Ravens in Week 3.
Below you’ll see some spreads and totals that bettors need to monitor throughout the week, but for now, here is the full list of NFL opening odds for Week 4:
| Game | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles @ Packers | -1.5 | 48.5 |
| Panthers @ Texans | -4 | 46 |
| Browns @ Ravens | -5.5 | 46.5 |
| Redskins @ Giants | -3 | 46 |
| Chargers @ Dolphins | +16.5 | 46 |
| Raiders @ Colts | -6.5 | 44 |
| Chiefs @ Lions | +6.5 | 53 |
| Patriots @ Bills | +7 | 44 |
| Titans @ Falcons | -5.5 | 46.5 |
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | +4 | 46 |
| Vikings @ Bears | -2.5 | 39 |
| Jaguars @ Broncos | -3 | 38 |
| Buccaneers @ Rams | -9 | 50 |
| Cowboys @ Saints | +3 | 45 |
| Bengals @ Steelers | -4 | 45 |
Lines to Monitor For Week 4
Cowboys @ Saints:
Opened +2.5; early move to +3
In what was expected to be a heavyweight matchup when the schedule was released, I’m still expecting line movement toward the Saints for the Sunday night prime-time game. The Saints looked really, really good in Seattle and although the final score was 33-27, the game wasn’t close.
The lookahead line had the Cowboys as 2.5-point faves and despite both teams having convincing wins in Week 3, we only saw the line move by half a point for the Cowboys, who are favored by a field goal. Sixty-five percent of the money is currently on Dallas and I’m predicting it to settle back at Cowboys -2.5 by kickoff barring any late inactives on the respective rosters.
Patriots @ Bills:
Opened +6.5, 44 O/U; Early move to +7.5, 43
Let’s just get this out of the way: this line is too low. The Patriots only being favored by a touchdown in Buffalo is a crime as they’ve won in Buffalo for seven straight years, covered six of those games and won all but one of those games by double digits.
Bill Belichick is a master at taking away a team’s strength and they will try to make the Bills beat them with passing, which is likely a death knell for the Bills. Josh Allen is 19th in passing yards per game and has only thrown three touchdowns.
The Bills’ 3-0 record feels hollow, which is likely why the majority of bettors agree with me with 69 percent of the money currently on New England. This line will climb to Patriots -8.5 by Sunday.
One Key Number For Week 4
Redskins @ Giants:
Opened -3, 46; early O/U move to 47.5
This line will see a lot of movement before kickoff pending what happens on Monday Night Football but really because of all the hoopla surrounding Giants QB Daniel Jones. New York’s optimism is on overdrive despite losing RB Saquon Barkley to a high-ankle sprain and we think sportsbooks may be overvaluing the Giants in this spot.
The lookahead line last week was Giants -2 with Barkley projected to be in the lineup and it goes to show the oddsmakers value competent QB play over a star running back. We expect this line to go Giants -4 or -4.5 by game time with the Danny Dimes hype kicking into overdrive.