Week 12 will kick off with an AFC South battle between the Texans and the Colts in Indy, as Houston looks to rebound from its 41-7 drubbing at the hands of the Ravens on Sunday. All four NFC South teams will face each other in the form of Buccaneers-Falcons and Panthers-Saints tilts. There’s also a marquee matchup in both the early and late window of games – the Seahawks meet the Eagles in Philadelphia, while the Cowboys travel to New England and tangle with the Patriots. However, the jewel of the slate may well unfold Sunday night, when Aaron Rodgers returns to California to lead his Packers against the Niners.
Week 12 predictions and analysis
Colts at Texans (-3.5) — Thursday night
An AFC South matchup kicks off our Week 12 festivities. The Colts have already drawn first blood in the 2019 season series. They toppled Houston by a 30-23 score in Indianapolis on Oct. 20. Deshaun Watson did pass for 308 yards, but he was picked off twice and took three sacks. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett threw for 326 yards and racked up four touchdown passes, with Zach Pascal enjoying a breakout six-catch, 106-yard, two-touchdown performance through the air.
The two teams come off vastly different Week 11 outcomes. The Texans failed a test against an elite AFC opponent, one that they’d likely have to go through at some point in the postseason were they to reach it. Houston was embarrassed by the Baltimore Ravens to the tune of a 41-7 score. Watson threw for just 169 yards in the lopsided loss. Meanwhile, the Colts got the best of a returning Nick Foles and his Jaguars squad. Indianapolis notched a convincing 33-13 win against Jacksonville, a game that featured the return of Brissett from a one-game absence due to an MCL sprain.
With respect to this matchup, the Texans face a Colts defense that’s been sound but not dominant in any area. Indianapolis is allowing 325.6 yards per game overall. They’ve been more impressive versus the run (96.8 rushing yards per game allowed), but Houston should have its fair share of opportunities to attack through both the ground and air. Carlos Hyde continues to be an effective lead-back option for Houston, and he’s complimented perfectly by Duke Johnson. It remains to be seen if Will Fuller will be able to make it back from his hamstring injury for the contest, but Kenny Stills, Keke Coutee and DeAndre Carter are set to back up DeAndre Hopkins again if he can’t.
The Colts are dealing with a pair of key injuries heading into the game. The news is trending up on T.Y. Hilton (calf), however, who’s reportedly ramped up his rehab efforts in recent days and is shooting to be available Thursday. Hilton worked off to the side in Monday’s practice, and his status will likely come down to a game-time call. However, there’s no ambiguity regarding Marlon Mack – he’s out for Thursday’s game at minimum after fracturing his right hand against the Jags. He’ll be replaced by a committee of Jonathan Williams, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins (ankle). Mack’s absence may make it difficult to keep defenses honest, beginning with Houston’s.
Panthers at Saints (-8.5)
The Panthers have to be questioning themselves a bit after getting manhandled by the Falcons in Week 11. Carolina’s Kyle Allen had a shaky decision-making day in a four-interception clunker. The Saints defense is certainly capable of capitalizing on similar mistakes, especially if Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) makes his way back into the lineup. Naturally, Christian McCaffrey will remain a centerpiece against New Orleans, although the Saints bring in a No. 3 ranking in terms of rushing yards per game allowed (85.3).
The Saints seemed to recover well from their own Falcons beatdown in Week 11 by toppling the Buccaneers on the road. All the gears on New Orleans’ high-powered offense seemed to be hitting – Drew Brees threw for three touchdowns, Alvin Kamara averaged over 6.0 yards per carry and Michael Thomas put up a prototypical 11-114 line. New Orleans thus heads into this home matchup in fine health both physically and mentally, although their status as such big home favorites might be bet down just a tad during the week.
Broncos at Bills (-5)
This could turn out to be a bit of a defensive slugfest, a fact definitely reflected by the minuscule 37.5-point total. Denver’s defense was stout for three quarters Sunday before succumbing to a furious fourth-quarter rally by the Vikings. However, they remain a top-5 unit versus the pass and rank just outside the top 10 against the run. Meanwhile, the Bills check in as the third-stingiest pass defense (197.8 yards per game allowed), but they’re allowing 106.3 per contest on the ground.
That could set up a run-centric gameplan by coach Vic Fangio on Sunday with his two-headed attack of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Brandon Allen has been serviceable at quarterback thus far, but Buffalo’s secondary legitimately discourages the opposition from targeting it. Late-November weather is almost certain to be a factor here also, which could affect both passing attacks.
A projected five-point edge as a home team to open the week seems reasonable here for Buffalo, and we’ll check back as usual Friday night to see if there’s been any movement on the spread and the tiny total.
Lions (-3.5) at Redskins
We’re likely looking at a Jeff Driskel vs. Dwayne Haskins showdown here in this spot. Matthew Stafford is expected to remain out for multiple weeks due to his back fractures. However, given how each of the two projected starters for this Week 12 contest fared in Week 11, this could actually turn into an entertaining contest between two squads with losing records.
As has been the case since being thrust into action for the first time in Cincinnati last season, Driskel continues to essentially remain unfazed by the NFL game. The mobile quarterback continued to make plays with both his arm and legs against the Cowboys on Sunday and accounted for three total touchdowns. He’ll face a Redskins squad allowing 242.4 passing yards per game at home, along with the fifth-most rushing yards (133.9) per contest overall. On the other side, Haskins, who braved through six sacks versus the Jets on Sunday to throw for a pair of touchdowns, has an appealing matchup himself against a Detroit team allowing the third-most passing yards per contest (288.5). However, we know Redskins coach Bill Callahan wants to lean on the run game as much as possible. To that end, Derrius Guice had a nice return to action with a 45-yard touchdown reception and could see much more run alongside Adrian Peterson in this matchup.
We may see this number move a bit in either direction this week, but the total here is pretty eye-catching. At just 41.5 points, the Over could well be the way to go before the number is possibly bet up in this matchup of two suspect defenses.
Dolphins at Browns (-11)
The Browns may finally be building a bit of momentum. Their second straight win last Thursday night against the Steelers still had plenty of warts. However, Baker Mayfield is now at three straight games without a turnover. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are also being integrated very effectively as a tandem into the offense, perhaps one of the few things head coach Freddie Kitchens has gotten right this season. The defense is now down Myles Garrett due to his suspension, but the secondary appears to be gelling after finally getting both Damarious Randall and Denzel Ward healthy.
On the Dolphins’ end, it’s safe to say Miami is no longer the doormat of the NFL. They weren’t able to notch a third straight win Sunday against the Bills, but once again, they put up an admirable fight. Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker have quietly become a highly effective duo, while Allen Hurns continues to claw his way back to relevance again. Unfortunately for Miami, they’re a bit light in the area where the Browns can best be attacked, especially with Garrett out – on the ground. Kalen Ballage could be in for a heavier workload than usual if Brian Flores and his staff decide to hone in on this weakness.
The double-digit spread feels a bit large at this point in the week, even with the Browns enjoying a rest advantage. It will be interesting to see where we are by Friday.
Giants at Bears (-6.5)
The Bears don’t seem deserving of being designated a near-touchdown favorite over any team at the moment. Chicago’s latest debacle Sunday night versus the Rams included a removal of Mitchell Trubisky from the contest due to a hip injury. Trubisky has already been named the Week 12 start by the apparently masochistic Matt Nagy, who watched the third-year quarterback throw for just 190 yards with a touchdown and interception while leading the Bears to just seven points while he was in there against Los Angeles.
The Giants will have benefit of coming into this game off a bye week. The off time came at a particularly opportune time for New York. It could allow both Evan Engram (foot) and Sterling Shepard (concussion) to return to action in Week 12 versus Chicago. Daniel Jones is sure to be aggressively attacked by the Bears defense. However, he headed into the bye with a stellar four-touchdown, 308-yard showing against the Jets. Chicago’s pass defense is a bit more giving than in past seasons this year (227.3 passing yards per game allowed), so there could be some opportunities for Jones and a potentially fully-stocked pass-catching corps.
Raiders (-3) at Jets
The Raiders have finally reached the point where they can be considered road favorites against some sub-par squads, no small feat for a team that’s been a doormat for quite a while. Oakland is legitimately demonstrating improvement week-to-week in Jon Gruden’s second season back and Derek Carr is one of the biggest beneficiaries. After connecting on a season-high 86.2 percent of his throws Sunday against Cincinnati, Carr boasts a career-best 72.3 percent completion rate.
The Jets could be perfect targets for Carr and his pass-catching crew. Even against the lowly Redskins and rookie Dwayne Haskins, New York’s secondary issues surfaced in Week 12 to an extent. New York could find itself in trouble against an air attack for Oakland that includes Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. However, it bears noting the Raiders’ pass defense is anything but stout itself. Oakland is yielding 262.2 passing yards per contest and could be victimized by both Robby Anderson’s speed and Jamison Crowder’s route-running.
We’ll see where this spread is at the end of the week, but a flyer on the Over of the 45.5-point projected total (as of Monday afternoon) looks pretty enticing.
Steelers (-6) at Bengals
Speaking of teams that haven’t been favored too often this season, the Steelers are projected a near-touchdown better than Cincy to start the week. Considering Cincinnati’s disarray this season, that’s not outrageous by any stretch. Pittsburgh has the horses to exploit the Bengals’ atrocious, league-worst run defense (167.0 yards per game allowed), even if James Conner (shoulder) misses. Yet they’ll need to do a more effective job getting the ball downfield consistently than they managed versus the Browns in a Week 11 Thursday night loss in order to keep Cincinnati from stacking the box.
The Bengals will have a tall order trying to keep extended drives alive versus the Steelers’ defense. Pittsburgh’s unit is the real deal and is about the worst matchup for an injury-ravaged, talent-deprived group like Cincinnati’s offensive line to draw. The Steelers have proven capable of getting to the quarterback even in defeat this season. Their relentlessly attacking style could truly wreak havoc on a rookie in Ryan Finley who’s admirably holding his own thus far, but who could also likely be easily confused and taken off script if he’s consistently hit.
Seahawks at Eagles (-2)
The Seahawks can’t seem to get full respect from the oddsmakers, even after upending the previously unbeaten 49ers in a Week 10 Monday night matchup in San Francisco. They now come into this contest with a rest advantage, not to mention a 3-0 ATS mark as a road underdog this season. The extra prep time should allow for Josh Gordon to also be much more integrated into Seattle’s offensive system after debuting with a 2-27 line versus the 49ers.
The Eagles gave a solid accounting of themselves versus the defending champion Patriots in Week 11, but after a fast start, they couldn’t do much else in a 17-10 loss. Philly now sits at 5-5, but they’re still just a game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East. Their secondary play has gotten exponentially better with the return to health of several players over the last few weeks. They figure to need all hands on deck versus a Seattle passing attack that will come at them with a rested Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Gordon, not to mention complimentary pieces like Jaron Brown and David Moore. Philly should also expect to see plenty of pass attempts because of their success stopping the run – they’re still allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per contest (86.0), including a meager 78.0 over the last three.
This should be one of the most popular games to bet this week, given its marquee status on the slate. It will be interesting to see what happens to this line throughout the week, but a bet on a Seattle cover/upset wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Buccaneers at Falcons (-4)
The Buccaneers’ latest debacle Week 11 versus the Saints put their home record at 1-4. Therefore, they may be glad to get out of West Florida for a bit and make the short trip north in Week 12. Yet they could be running into a hornet’s nest. Following some play-calling tweaks on the defensive side of the ball, Atlanta looks like a completely different team the last two weeks. This game will present the Falcons with an opportunity to accomplish a feat that would have been nearly unthinkable three weeks ago – running the table over their NFC South mates with a three-game sweep.
Atlanta’s new aggressive, opportunistic style of defense could well be the mistake-prone Jameis Winston’s Kryptonite. The 2015 first overall pick threw another four interceptions against the Saints on Sunday and will potentially be playing for his job Week 12. Meanwhile, the Falcons looked like they were in fine shape on offense even without Devonta Freeman (foot) in Week 11. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley were excellent through the air against a normally stingy Carolina secondary. What they might be able to accomplish against a Bucs secondary yielding the second-most passing yards per game (290.9) could be close to limitless.
A four-point advantage for the Falcons over most any team would have been hard to imagine a few weeks ago. But given both squads’ performances in recent weeks, it’s warranted. This is will be one of the more interesting lines to check back in on Friday night.
Jaguars at Titans (-3)
The Titans are getting a bit of love from the oddsmakers here coming off their bye week. Tennessee will be well-rested for this matchup and will have additional time to get Ryan Tannehill on the same page with his pass-catching corps. The former Dolphins first-round pick has already been doing a good job since taking over for Marcus Mariota and could be even sharper coming out of the break.
The Jaguars dominated the first meeting between these teams this season down in Jacksonville by a 20-7 score. Of course, it was Gardner Minshew at the controls in that contest. Nick Foles will helm the Jacksonville offense in this instance and didn’t look like he’d missed a beat in his Week 11 return versus the Colts. The veteran signal-caller threw for 296 yards and two touchdowns in a losing effort. Game script took Leonard Fournette out of the equation for the most part, but the bruising back could play a big role against a Tennessee defense allowing 17.2 more rushing yards per game over its last three games than its metric of 102.5.
This spread could well shrink over the rest of the week, but an Over bet on the projected total could be a way to attack this game.
Cowboys at Patriots (-6)
After being favored by a modest 3-3.5-point spread versus Dallas’ NFC East-brethren Eagles in Week 11 and covering, New England’s projected advantage is back out to a more familiar margin against the Cowboys. Dallas did up its record to 6-4 in Week 11 by knocking off the Lions on the road. But, their pass defense sprung some leaks against the relatively inexperienced Jeff Driskel that really didn’t have the benefit of a ground attack to help keep things honest.
However, the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott continues put together jaw-dropping stat lines lately. His 444-yard, three-touchdown showing against the Lions pushed his two-game total in Weeks 10 and 11 to a whopping 841 passing yards. Yet Prescott will be going from the penthouse to the doghouse in a manner of speaking against New England. After limiting Carson Wentz to 214 yards and 50.0 percent passing Sunday, the Pats are surrendering just 152.6 passing yards per contest.
New England will have a tough matchup itself versus a Dallas defense that’s been able to usually make life difficult for offenses through both the ground and air despite the occasional stumble. We’ll see whether the public buys into the ‘Boys a bit more in this difficult road spot, especially considering their 0-3 mark straight up against team with current winning records.
Packers at 49ers (-3)
As alluded to earlier, this is could well be the top game of the week. The Packers will come into this game off a bye and have traveled well, posting a 3-1 record outside of Lambeau Field. Green Bay can hit a defense from multiple angles. Despite the presence of Aaron Rodgers, the running game has often taken center stage. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have been a dynamic combo on the ground, with Jones already having compiled 11 rushing scores. However, Davante Adams seemed to be back to full strength in Week 10 versus the Panthers, posting a 7-118 line. That’s good news, considering the rest of Green Bay’s receiving corps has been inconsistent.
The 49ers are still riding high with a 9-1 record, but their defense is losing a bit of that aura of invincibility it enjoyed earlier this year. San Francisco has given up a fair amount of yardage and/or points over the last three games to the Cardinals (twice) and the Seahawks. The Pack has weapons that can penetrate any defense, beginning with Rodgers, naturally. The modest three-point spread here is partly a nod to that firepower and the future of Hall of Famer’s ability to turn it on in big games and big moments.
The oddsmakers do feel there will be some offense in this game, given the 45.5-point projected total. One of the ways that could transpire is through the 49ers’ running game. The Packers have allowed 126.9 rushing yards per game, eighth most in the league. Even if Matt Breida (ankle) is unable to make it back for the game, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, Jr. are a fine trio that can exploit that weakness. Then, Jimmy Garoppolo also opened eyes in Week 11 with a 424-yard, four-touchdown effort versus the Cardinals without George Kittle (knee/ankle) available. It’s possible Kittle is missing again Sunday night, but the likes of Emmanuel Sanders, Ross Dwelley and Deebo Samuel could find success against a Green Bay secondary surrendering 257.8 passing yards per game, including 271 over the last three.
Ravens (-3.5) at Rams – Monday night
The Ravens are getting close to “nothing left to prove” category as far as the regular season is concerned. They easily disposed of another purported AFC contender in Week 11 by thrashing the Houston Texans, 41-7. Lamar Jackson continued his MVP push with four touchdown passes and another 86 rushing yards. The defense was just as a big a star, keeping Deshaun Watson under 200 passing yards. Despite Houston’s offensive talent, Baltimore’s defense only truly faltered on a single play, a 41-yard rushing score by Carlos Hyde in the fourth quarter long after the game was decided.
The Rams can say they came out of Week 11 with a win, but it was Jeff Fisher-level ugly. The one big positive is that Los Angeles got back to leaning heavily on Todd Gurley with strong results. The star running back – who hasn’t always looked himself this season – carried a season-high 25 times for 97 yards and a touchdown, adding three grabs for 36 yards along the way. There are concerns elsewhere in the offense, however. Not only is the offensive line dealing with multiple injuries, but receiver Robert Woods missed the game for personal reasons and isn’t back with the team as of Monday night. Brandin Cooks also remains sidelined for an indefinite amount of time with a concussion.
Los Angeles have had a difficult time protecting Goff at times this season. That could be bad news against a Ravens defense that’s posted 23 sacks, with six of those coming in Week 11. Baltimore is also ranked in the top 10 in rushing yards per game allowed (94.3). Then, they’ve allowed a fairly elevated 238.6 passing yards per contest, but they’re surrendering the second-fewest per game over the last three (176.0) since Jimmy Smith returned from a multi-game absence due to a knee injury.
The line represents a solid projected advantage for a road team. The Rams don’t really enjoy much of a homefield advantage and the Ravens have already proven capable of winning when traveling (4-1 road mark), so the number could potentially even climb over the course of the week depending on the status of Woods and Cooks.