Here is the Opening Line Report for Week 10:
307/308 Navy (-26.5) at UConn – I’m racking my brain for the last time that a service academy was favored by this much against an FBS opponent. The closest call for Navy came against Tulane back in 2015 as a 23.5-point favorite. This is a pretty big number in a game expected to have limited possessions, but the first movement here was to go up from 26 to 26.5. UConn has actually played better lately and it wouldn’t be a stunner to see this line come down throughout the week.
311/312 Liberty (-21.5) at UMass – Speaking of big numbers, Liberty is more than a three-touchdown favorite against UMass. Last week, Liberty was in a favorite role against a Power Five team and got beaten by Rutgers. This week, Liberty is in another huge favorite role and, like the previous game, this line actually ticked up a half-point. I’m not sure we’ll see much enthusiasm for UMass. Some enthusiasm for UConn seems a lot more likely. Circa actually opened 24 on this game, so some early UMass money did arrive.
313/314 Old Dominion at FIU (-16) – FIU seemed to be a little bit of a sharp darling in recent weeks, but last week’s loss looks pretty ugly against Middle Tennessee. Look into the box score, though, as FIU was -4 in turnover margin thanks to four fumbles. MTSU did outgain FIU badly, but the Blue Raiders also only threw for 25 yards. They used a lot of designed QB runs. The market expects better for FIU this week against a horrible Old Dominion team that cannot pass the ball.
317/318 Pitt (-7.5) at Georgia Tech – Pitt’s inconsistency showed again last week in the loss to Miami. Georgia Tech beat Miami two weeks ago. The transitive property of college football is all out of whack this season with some of the performances that we have seen, but we are seeing this line tick down from -8 to as low as -7 in the market. Most of the 7.5s are juiced -115 on the dog side. Georgia Tech is taking early money here. We’ll see if GA Tech takes late money, too, but this line will be 7 market-wide sometime today.
323/324 Michigan (-18.5) at Maryland – We knew that Michigan would get respect coming off of the blowout win over Notre Dame. Maryland also looked awful again. This line is up from 16.5 to as high as 19 in the marketplace. Public money is going to pile on with Michigan, so it would be a surprise to see this line do anything other than continue to rise. It wouldn’t be a big shocker to see -20 or maybe even -21 before some brave souls give Maryland a try.
327/328 Akron at Bowling Green (-6) – A bottom-three matchup in western Ohio as #129 Akron and #128 Bowling Green battle it out. It seems like some bettors are uncomfortable with Bowling Green favored by this much over anybody, but Akron’s body of work has managed to be a lot worse than Bowling Green’s. At some point, this line should go up a little, whether the result of public money or some sharp money. It would be unlikely to go past 7 if it does start to rise.
333/334 Boston College at Syracuse (-2.5) – A move to -3 seems almost inevitable on this one between Boston College and Syracuse. BetOnline is already there and others are likely to follow suit. If Boston College can’t run, they can’t move the football. Last week’s game against Clemson isn’t a great barometer, given that it’s Clemson, but the Eagles couldn’t move the ball at all. Two weeks ago, they blew out NC State. Syracuse has had a lot of issues lately, but this does seem like a decent spot for them and the line will probably support that claim as well.
337/338 Virginia at North Carolina (-2.5) – To say that UNC hung on to beat Duke is underselling it. That was an ugly, sloppy game. Virginia lost to Louisville, once again disappointing those that thought highly of the Cavaliers coming into the season. Early interest in this game is on the Tar Heels, who are up from -2 to -2.5 with extra juice in most places. Books are reluctant to move to key numbers early in the week, so we should see this one sit 2.5 for a little while unless something heavy comes in.
339/340 BYU at Utah State (-3.5) – BYU opened higher in most spots and all of the initial action was on the Cougars. Utah State has been a massive disappointment this season, as Jordan Love has regressed and the Aggies just don’t look the same with the transition from Matt Wells to Gary Andersen. BetOnline actually opened as high as 8. Circa opened 6.5. Both numbers were too high. Bookmaker opened 4.5 and that was still too high. We’ll see Utah State buyback at some point here, but for now, it has been all BYU money early.
343/344 Oregon (-4.5) at USC – Oregon is teetering on the brink of another loss. The Ducks defense was exposed by Washington two weeks ago and by Washington State last week. USC’s passing game seems to be clicking with Kedon Slovis. Circa opened 7 on this game and BetOnline came out at 7 as well. All early action has been on USC to drive the number down to 4.5. 5Dimes is holding at 5. At this point, I think we’re done seeing the line go down. It will hold here and the books will hope for some Oregon money so that they can get a better idea of how the rest of the week will set up from a risk management standpoint.
347/348 Kansas State (-6.5) at Kansas – The Sunflower Showdown is this weekend and I can’t really remember one with more intrigue. Kansas has an offense for the first time since Mark Mangino was patrolling the sideline and Kansas State is coming off of a stunning win over Oklahoma that got very dicey late. Kansas hasn’t won this game since 2008 and most of the games haven’t been close. The Wildcats are laying 6.5 on the road here in Lawrence across most of the market, but there are some heavily juiced 7s out there. Keep an eye on this line. I would expect it to move.
353/354 Northern Illinois (-1) at Central Michigan – We’ve got an early flipped favorite situation, as the NIU Huskies are now -1 across most of the market against Central Michigan. CMU opened a favorite offshore, but kudos to Matt Lindeman and the team at Circa that had this game nailed at -1. Perhaps they took some early CMU action, since we’ve seen places like BetOnline and Bookmaker take the Circa opener and then open their own lines somewhere between that line and the line movement. No matter the process, NIU is now road chalk.
355/356 Marshall (-10.5) at Rice – It seems like the Rice love has taken a backseat for the time being. Marshall is up from -10 to -10.5. We’ve seen a lot of Rice steam in recent weeks, as they’ve been isolated as a sharp side for one reason or another. Maybe this is a setup to get Rice at a better number and come back later, but Marshall is getting the early respect as a double-digit favorite.
359/360 SMU at Memphis (-3.5) – This is the game of the week in college football. SMU has played with fire a couple of times here recently and the markets have responded in kind by backing Memphis. This line opened -3 at Bookmaker and BetOnline and now sits 3.5 or 4 across the market. Memphis is typically a sharper Group of Five side and that seems to be the case again here, especially with Pinnacle as the first offshore to climb to 4. Circa opened 3 and let the market dictate the move and the move appears to be the Memphis side, at least for now.
363/364 Army at Air Force (-14.5) – A game that likely would have been lined around pick ‘em or Air Force up to -3 is now Air Force -14.5. It is a long trip for Army for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy rivalry, but a trip that they make every other year. We’ve seen some high Army/Navy spreads and have actually seen the same here. This is the sixth time since 2005 that Air Force has been more than a two-touchdown favorite. That was a regular occurrence before 2005. It is the first time since 2015 when AFA was -16.5. Army has only been favored once in this rivalry since 1990 and that was a virtual pick ‘em game.
365/366 Oregon State at Arizona (-6) – Keep an eye on this one. Market confidence seems pretty low in Kevin Sumlin and Arizona. Oregon State is down from +7 to +6 across most of the market at this point in time. It wouldn’t be a stunner to see this line keep coming down before some Arizona buyback. This is a forgotten game, especially with the early PT kickoff in Tucson, but it seems like we have a sharp side forming.
371/372 Georgia (-4.5) vs. Florida – Cocktails, anyone? The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is in Jacksonville this week as Georgia and Florida play their annual rivalry game. It has been all Georgia money thus far to drive this line up from -3.5 to as high as -5 in the market. Circa actually tossed out Georgia -6.5, which appeared to be too high, but the line is now sitting in that dead zone between 4 and 6. Both teams have had their ups and downs so far. It’s hard to tell which side will be sharp and which side will be public, but this will be quite a popular game.
373/374 TCU at Oklahoma State (-3.5) – For another week, it looks like TCU will be a sharp side. TCU took late money against Texas and was bet into a bigger favorite against Kansas State. A lot of influential money seems to like TCU. Last week, the line moved against Oklahoma State to make the Cowboys a double-digit dog and they won outright over a sharp darling Iowa State team. I think we’ll see sharp action go head-to-head here, but probably see Oklahoma State as the public side.
391/392 Utah (-3) at Washington – A big leap down to the other marquee game of the week, as Utah takes on Washington. Any place that opened below -3 is now there or higher. Matchbook, the offshore exchange, is the only book at 2.5. BetOnline is at 4. Everybody else seems okay with hanging at 3 or 3.5 for right now. Utah has been simply dominant since losing to USC and a lot sharp bettors seem to be on board. Utah took heavy money last week to be an enormous favorite with a low total against Cal. They look to be the popular side here as well.
