The OTL Wintrac Computer software program has accurately predicted NFL games since it was introduced back in the early 90’s. Let’s take a look at what the computer has come up with for Week 1 of the NFL Season!!
The New Orleans Saints are the biggest favorites of Week 1, but that 9.5-point line isn’t high enough for two of our three experts. Both Davenport and Gagnon think New Orleans will walk away with a double-digit victory over a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that is starting backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick in place of the suspended Jameis Winston.
The increasingly strong New Orleans defense surrendered just 10 points in the team’s last meeting with Tampa Bay at the Superdome, with Fitzpatrick also serving as the Bucs’ primary quarterback after relieving an injured Winston in that affair.
“The Saints have only gotten stronger since then,” said Gagnon. “They had a nice offseason, while the Bucs dealt with more Winston drama. Wrong place, wrong time for Tampa Bay.”
But this isn’t a unanimous pick, and Sobleski’s prediction that this’ll be a close game should give you caution. Divisional games are always tricky, especially in Week 1. The Bucs did beat the Saints 31-24 in the 2017 regular-season finale (albeit at home), and Tampa Bay has scored 60 points in back-to-back season-opening victories.
Essentially, tread carefully.
Score Prediction: New Orleans 27, Tampa Bay 16
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
The hype train for the San Francisco 49ers is fully fueled, but our experts don’t think that’ll be enough for San Francisco to slay the stacked Minnesota Vikings in Minneapolis on Sunday.
The Niners certainly look like potential contenders with new franchise quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo coming off his first offseason with the team. After all, they won each of their final five games with Jimmy G under center last season.
But this might again be a case of wrong place, wrong time, because the Vikings look primed for a huge season with veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins joining the fray. Despite all the buzz, Gagnon doesn’t believe San Francisco is in Minnesota’s league.
“The 49ers gained so much momentum with Garoppolo late last season,” he said, “but they didn’t do enough to bolster his supporting cast this offseason. I like Garoppolo, but he doesn’t have enough weapons, and he could be in trouble now that opposing defensive coordinators have taken plenty of time to watch his tape from December.”
Throw in that Garoppolo recently lost projected No. 1 running back Jerick McKinnon to a season-ending knee injury, and this one has a chance to be one-sided.
Score Prediction: Minnesota 27, San Francisco 13
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Our experts are a tad surprised that the Baltimore Ravens are mere seven-point favorites for their Week 1 home matchup with the Buffalo Bills, because it appears Buffalo is throwing second-year quarterback Nathan Peterman to the wolves.
At this point just one year ago, those wolves—also known as Terrell Suggs, Brandon Williams, Michael Pierce, Eric Weddle, Tony Jefferson, C.J. Mosley, Marlon Humphrey and the rest of the Baltimore defense—shut out the Cincinnati Bengals in their season opener and then surrendered just 10 points to the Cleveland Browns in their home opener.
They recorded 10 takeaways and eight sacks in those two games. And although they cooled off a little bit as injuries took their toll down the stretch, they still finished with the year with the sixth-fewest points allowed in the NFL.
Those wolves will be licking their chops when facing Peterman, who infamously threw five interceptions in one half in his first NFL start last November. Peterman has since shown signs of progress, but he’s a bridge quarterback with a clear-cut ceiling, and the Ravens are a hell of a challenge out of the gate.
The Buffalo defense might have to do some heavy lifting for the Bills to keep this close, but Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has experienced a superb offseason, and he’s got more support now than he’s had in years.
Thus, Davenport, Gagnon and Sobleski don’t buy that this’ll be a one-score game.
Score Prediction: Baltimore 24, Buffalo 10
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants
For years, Jacksonville Jaguars-New York Giants games were meetings between a mystery and a known commodity. That is arguably the case again now, but for once, the Jags are the known commodity and the Giants are the mystery.
Led by a new regime and coaching staff and featuring a retooled offensive line and running game, the Giants could be better than they were when they won double-digit games and made the playoffs in 2016, or as bad as they were when they lost 13 games in a 2017 campaign that exemplified Murphy’s law.
That’s why Sobleski is backing the Jags as three-point faves, even on the road against a talented opponent.
“The Jaguars are counted among the league’s most talented teams,” he said. “The Giants, on the other hand, are a new-look squad. They have a new head coach, new offensive and defensive play-callers, new schemes, entirely new offensive line, new running back, new defensive end, two new starting linebackers and new free safety. The Jaguars envision a Super Bowl run, while the Giants have no clue who they are.”
Three points might seem low for a matchup between a consensus Super Bowl contender and a team coming off a three-win season, but the Jags have lost their last three regular-season road games, and the Giants have the more accomplished quarterback. That leaves Gagnon under the impression this’ll be close, and the reality is that any Week 1 game involving this much “mystery” is a risky play.
Score Prediction: Jacksonville 17, New York 14
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
There’s also plenty of mystery surrounding Sunday’s matchup between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots.
The Texans won just four games last season, but that surely wouldn’t have been the case had quarterback Deshaun Watson and defensive end J.J. Watt been healthy. Watson was tearing it up and had emerged as an MVP candidate before suffering a season-ending knee injury in November, but he’s back now, and so is Watt.
The question is how effective both of those players will be. Watson relies heavily on his legs and is just 10 months removed from major knee surgery, while Watt has missed all but eight games the last two seasons.
The Patriots nearly won the Super Bowl last season, but they’ve since experienced an acrimonious offseason. MVP quarterback Tom Brady and superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski are back after weird springs, but the same can’t be said for stalwart left tackle Nate Solder, flashy back Dion Lewis, accomplished cornerback Malcolm Butler and veteran wideouts Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola, all of whom are gone. And on top of that, they’ll be without top receiver Julian Edelman as he serves a four-game suspension to start the regular season.
Despite all that is up in the air, there’s still a unanimous consensus among our analysts that Houston will put up a fight against the defending AFC champions.
“I think my gambling nickname should be ‘The Pancake,’ because I flipped on a pair of games this week,” said Davenport, who admits he was originally on the Pats as 6.5-point favorites. “I still think the Patriots have an excellent chance to win this game at home, because they’re the Patriots and they very rarely lose at home. But a healthy Texans team has the weapons on offense and defense to keep things close enough that laying almost a touchdown just became a bit too rich for my blood.
“There are too many questions surrounding the New England defense and receiving corps, and this is a team that’s been known to stub their toe a little early, a la last year’s opener against the Chiefs.”
Score Prediction: New England 23, Houston 20
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Vegas doesn’t appear to be confident in either the Tennessee Titans or Miami Dolphins this week, probably because Tennessee won just three regular-season road games last season, while four of Miami’s six wins came at home.
The Dolphins don’t look like playoff contenders after losing star players Jarvis Landry and Ndamukong Suh in the offseason, but would anybody be surprised if they hung with an unpredictable Titans team in their home opener? Keep in mind quarterback Ryan Tannehill is healthy for the first time since December 2016.
None of our experts believe Tannehill’s presence will be enough to give the Dolphins a small upset victory in South Florida, but Gagnon doesn’t see the Titans pulling away either.
“I think this’ll be a close, low-scoring game between two teams that few are rallying behind,” he said. “Tennessee has a lot more talent and potential and is coming off a playoff season, so Marcus Mariota and Co. should come through, but I think this is close in the fourth quarter. Don’t forget that Tannehill is back, and that the Titans allowed more points than they scored despite reaching the second round of the playoffs in 2017.”
That’s not exactly a huge limb, but it’s fair to feel the need to wait before betting big on or against either of these teams in 2018.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 23, Miami 17
Score Prediction: Arizona 21, Washington 17
Score Prediction: Kansas City 27, La Chargers 20
Score Prediction: Cleveland 21, Pittsburgh 20
Score Prediction: Indianapolis 24, Cincinnati 23
Note: These are Computer generated selections and not the actual picks we give to our members.
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