Last year a record $4.3 billion was wagered, spread-out across 23.2 million people. Many handicappers make their wagers based on stats, injuries, or the matchup – not to mention gut feeling. However, before making your bets, there are key facts and trends that could help you profit on the big game.
Alarming stats like how in the past 12 Super Bowls the team with the better record has gone 1-11 or how the outright winner has a 47-6-2 ATS record all time can impact how many handicappers approach Super Bowl LVI. Let’s take a deeper dive into what stats should be a focus heading into the Big Game and trends that are at the forefront of both teams.
Why Get Our Superbowl 56 BEST BETS?
* 17-4 ATS NFL Playoff Run!
* 14-3 ATS L17 Superbowl Bets!
* 11-3 ATS Last Week Reg. Season!
* 4 SU Underdog Moneyline Winners Playoffs!
W Bengals +195 ov Titans
W 49ers +250 ov Packers
W Rams +175 ov Bucs
W Bengals +275 ov Chiefs
Los Angeles Rams
Analyzing the Rams roster, it is absolutely no surprise they have made it this far; the management team in Los Angeles has been adding key pieces over the past three years for this moment by attaining some of the top superstars in the NFL and making blockbuster trades. After starting the season 7-1, it was hard not to put a lot of confidence in the Rams each and every week to make you money. After the hot start by the Rams, Los Angeles went onto to lose three in a row. Before you jump to conclusions….yes many teams have gone onto to win the Super Bowl after losing three straight in the regular season. The 2012 Ravens were cruising along at 9-2 before they stumbled late in the year to drop all three of their games between Week 13 and Week 15. The Ravens went onto to win Super Bowl XLVI. The 2011-12 New York Giants season skidded to a halt starting in Week 10, when they lost the first of what would prove to be four consecutive games, going on to beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI. Those are just a couple examples. With a roster like the Los Angeles Rams have, being the favorite in most matchups comes as no surprise. In their last 10 regular season games, the Rams were the favorite by 7 or more points five times. Having such expectations and a strong roster, often times teams like this do not perform well against ATS (Against the Spread).
Against the spread as 4.5-point favorites or more, the Rams are 4-4. The Rams finished 8-9 ATS and were 9-7 for over/under. Los Angeles has gone over 48.5 points 10 of their 20 games this season, although Sunday’s total is 5.7 points lower than the two team’s combined 54.2 points per game average. Between the two teams, they combined to surrender 44 points per game, 4.5 fewer than this contest’s over/under. If wanting to bet on the totals, the Rams have given handicappers no inclination to go either way. I believe it will come down too if the Bengals mediocre O-line can protect franchise QB Joe Burrow against a lethal Rams pass rush.
The Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite. Los Angeles enters this matchup having a 5-1-1 ATS record in its last seven games against Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are one of the most surprising stories in the NFL in the season; coming into the season, they were one of the biggest long shots to make the Super Bowl, tying the 1999 St. Louis Rams with 150-1 odds. Just 12 teams since 1977 have made it to the Super Bowl with preseason odds of 50-1 or lower. They had posted a 6-25-1 record in Zac Taylor’s first two seasons as coach, and second-year quarterback Joe Burrow was coming off a torn ACL that was expected to limit him. Not to mention they compete in the AFC North, one of the most competitive, cutthroat divisions in the NFL.
The great thing about the Super Bowl is that underdogs have a phenomenal track record in the last 18 years. Underdogs have gone 8-10 straight up and are 12-6 against the spread. Burrow is 12-4 ATS against teams with a winning record and has covered six consecutive such games in his NFL career. In college, he covered in the SEC Championship Game and both College Football Playoff games.
The Bengals have covered seven consecutive games and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Cincinnati is coming off the largest comeback in AFC Championship Game history (18 points) and has won seven games in a row. When underdogs by 4.5 points or more this season, the Bengals have covered all three times. The Bengals are 13-7 ATS this season entering the Super Bowl, the second-most-profitable team in the NFL behind just the Dallas Cowboys (13-5 ATS).
Through the first six games this season, Cincinnati gained respect of bettors by going 4-2. The season shifted what potential many people saw in the Bengals is during week 7. Cincinnati closed as a 6.5-point road underdog and blasted Baltimore 41-17 after outscoring the Ravens 28-7 in the second half. Joe Burrow passed for 416 yards – 201 of those gains going to Ja’Marr Chase. After week 7, the Bengals Super Bowl odds dropped. Facing some rough patches week 10-15, the Bengals were able to finish the last three weeks strong, defeating both the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs, clinching their first AFC North title since 2015.
Total points trends for the Bengals include: the under is 4-0 in the last 4 games. The under is 7-0 in Bengals last 7 playoff games. The under is 5-1 in Bengals last 6 games as an underdog.
The Over is 7-2 in Bengals last 9 games on turf. The Bengals are currently 8-12 for over/under after 20 games played.
Why Get Our Superbowl 56 BEST BETS?
* 17-4 ATS NFL Playoff Run!
* 14-3 ATS L17 Superbowl Bets!
* 11-3 ATS Last Week Reg. Season!
* 4 SU Underdog Moneyline Winners Playoffs!
W Bengals +195 ov Titans
W 49ers +250 ov Packers
W Rams +175 ov Bucs
W Bengals +275 ov Chiefs