The Packers opened as 1.5-point home favorites, but the line has ticked up to Green Bay -4.5. Philadelphia’s moneyline opened at +185 and the point total at 48.5 before a pullback to 46.5. The UNDER and underdogs straight up are both 3-0 on TNF this season.
Over their past 10 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points, the Packers are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS.
Green Bay is now 3-0 SU and ATS this season after covering -7 against the Broncos. The Eagles are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS after failing to cover the -4 and losing outright 27-24 to the visiting Lions last weekend.
The OVER is 8-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 10 games as a road dog of 4.5 or fewer points and 7-2-1 in the last 10 games as a road dog with any point spread.
Philadelphia News & Notes
After seven dropped passes in their loss to the Lions, it’s evident the Eagles missed the veteran presence of DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery. D-Jax is dealing with an abdomen/groin injury, while Jeffery was out with a calf injury. Both are listed as questionable for Thursday night, but the short week doesn’t appear to be enough time for these two ailments to heal and get both receivers back near 100 percent.
If not for fumbles on back-to-back possessions, Philly may have squeaked out a win over Detroit. The two turnovers led to six points for the Lions, which ended up being the difference between a SU win and loss.
Typically, the Eagles are pretty good about protecting Carson Wentz. However, after the Lions got to him three times, this video clip is a great example of the need for Wentz to make quicker in-the-pocket decisions this Thursday as the Packers pass rush is tied for the second-most sacks this season with 12.
After recording only one sack of Matt Ryan against the beleaguered Falcons offensive line, the Eagles pass rush did not sack Matthew Stafford once and forced no turnovers in the Week 3 loss to the Lions. The last thing Philly needs to do is make Rodgers’ life in the pocket easier.
Green Bay News & Notes
The Packers may have allowed the Broncos to convert eight of 15 third downs and win time of possession 36-26, but Green Bay’s defense to date is not to be overlooked and undervalued. While the Broncos offense is among the NFL’s worst, Denver was held to 4.2 yards per play, Joe Flacco was sacked six times and the Packers defense forced three more turnovers. They lead the league in turnover margin at +6 after three games.
Green Bay also ranks fifth against the pass as one of only five teams allowing fewer than 200 pass yards per game. This is ideal when you consider the Eagles are averaging less than 100 rush yards per game and continue to lean on the arm of Carson Wentz with an injury-riddled receiving corps.
Offensively, the biggest takeaway for the Packers in their win over the Broncos was that Aaron Rodgers wasn’t sacked once. He was taken to the turf 49 times last season – fifth-most among quarterbacks.
Betting Pick: Packers -4.5
For the first time in a long time, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to single-handedly beat his opponent. With the struggles Carson Wentz endured against the Lions last Sunday, it’s hard to envision Philadelphia keeping things tight against this Packers defense on their home turf, even if the Eagles’ top two receivers return somewhat healthier.