You can’t do much better than a Super Bowl rematch to start. Although hopefully New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks is more entertaining and closer this time around. The Seahawks beat the Patriots 29-13 to finish off the 2025-26 season.

The rematch is at 8:20 p.m. ET Wednesday, Sept. 9, in Seattle and airing on NBC. The Seahawks opened as 3.5-point home favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, a point below the closing Super Bowl spread.

On Thursday, Sept. 10, it’s San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams, two more teams that were Super Bowl contenders last season. The Rams opened -2.5 (-120) for an 8:35 p.m. ET kickoff from Melbourne, Australia, in the first of five games this season on Netflix.

The next prime-time matchup has actually seen movement very early on in NFL Odds Week 1. At 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 13, on NBC, the Dallas Cowboys visit the NFC East rival New York Giants.

But for NFL Bettors, they want to know who will cover the spread ATS?

OTL Sports will have that information each and every gameday. The Absolute strongest information in NFL Betting circles each week!

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TCU (-6.5) vs. North Carolina

This game is the big Week 0 draw in Dublin for 2026. It’s also a rematch of last year’s Week 1 contest, where TCU drubbed the Heels 48-14 in head coach Bill Belichick’s college debut.

I don’t see much reason to expect a different outcome. Dublin has been fertile soil for dogs, but TCU is a far better team at the line of scrimmage. It should also remain quite good at quarterback, with Jaden Craig coming down from Harvard after making the Ivy League’s all-conference team in 2025.

Trendlines for this game also favor TCU. The Horned Frogs are 6-1 straight up (5-2 ATS) in their last seven games against ACC opponents. I am a Belichick/UNC skeptic, so I’m not expecting huge growth for North Carolina in Year 2. I want this number under seven, which is why I’m ready to buy in right now.

Hugh Freeze is three games under .500 in his tenure on The Plains, but this team looks like it can pack a punch offensively after signing Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold and wide receiver Eric Singleton to lead one of the SEC’s most promising receiver corps.

USC vs. Fresno State (+23.5)

Fresno State has former North Dakota State coach Matt Entz at the helm, and he’s in Year 2 of turning Fresno into a west-coast version of NDSU from the late 2010s.

Fresno is going to shock some people this year, and this game will provide an early opportunity. Not only is it a key chance for the new Pac-12 to earn some respect against a major brand, but it’s also a major contrast of styles – Entz’s power game against Lincoln Riley’s finesse Southern California offense.

As is often the case, be prepared for the finesse team to get exposed, to one degree or another, by the power team.

I think the ball-knowers out there are going to find all the Fresno numbers by Week 1, so I want to buy into this number ASAP. That means getting Fresno on the right side of +21, since I could see this closing at Fresno State +20. Prediction: Fresno State +23.5

Ole Miss (-6.5) vs. Louisville 

If ever a team was the victim of brand discrimination, it’s Ole Miss. This is an SEC team that played in the national semifinals last year and brings back a veteran quarterback who’s a Heisman Trophy front-runner … yet Ole Miss football odds aren’t even down to a full touchdown favorite against a good-not-great ACC team?

If the team jersey said Georgia on the front, I honestly think this point spread would be closer to -15. Instead, you can get Ole Miss to beat Louisville in Nashville at -6.5. And obviously, I want it under the -7.
Prediction: Ole Miss -6.5

Other Early Notable Looks:
LUS -11.5 over Clemson
Sam Houston +17.5 over Troy
UNLV -4.5 over Memphis

NFL OPENING ODDS WEEK 1
(From Circa Sportsbook)

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 9

• Patriots vs. Seahawks (-5.5) / 44.5

THURSDAY, SEPT. 10

• 49ers vs. Rams (-2.5) / 49

SUNDAY, SEPT. 13

• Buccaneers vs. Bengals (-3.5) / 52
• Falcons vs. Steelers (-3) / 41.5
• Bills (-1.5) vs. Texans / 44.5
• Ravens (-3.5) vs. Colts / 48
• Browns vs. Jaguars (-7) / 40
• Jets vs. Titans (-3) / 39
• Saints vs. Lions (-7) / 50
• Bears (-2.5) vs. Panthers / 46
• Dolphins vs. Raiders (-3) / 40.5
• Cardinals vs. Chargers (-11.5) / 46
• Commanders vs. Eagles (-5.5) / 47.5
• Packers (-1.5) vs. Vikings / 45
• Cowboys (-1.5) vs. Giants / 48

MONDAY, SEPT. 14

• Broncos vs. Chiefs (-2.5) /43

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Ravens (-3.5) at Colts: With the Ravens replacing John Harbaugh with Jesse Minter (I’m still not sure why!), it’s tempting to take the Colts as a home underdog of more than a FG. However, even though Daniel Jones is expected back from his Achilles injury sustained in Week 14 last season (opening the door for the Philip Rivers comeback), the Colts usually get off to slow starts as they were 2-12-1 in openers the prior 15 years before routing the Dolphins 33-8 in Week 1 last year. I don’t see this line dropping to 3 by Labor Day, so I think we’re safe to wait if we decide to pull the trigger then.

Falcons at Steelers (-3): Aaron Rodgers announced he was returning for one more season right before the schedule release and this opened between Steelers -1.5 and -2.5, otherwise this line coulda been around pick-’em or even the Falcons as short road favorites. Early bettors bet it up to 3 everywhere and, as of this writing, BetMGM has the line shaded to Steelers -3 -115, so I’m hoping that I can get Falcons +3.5 later this summer if support continues to come in on Pittsburgh.

Bills (-1.5) at Texans: Just like I wrote about the Rams-49ers above, if I was writing this on Labor Day with the lines the same as they are now, I would be adding Texans +7.5 to my Teasers along with the next two games on the early Sunday schedule: Panthers +8.5 vs. Bears and Jets +8.5 at Titans. However, teasers didn’t perform as well last year as in prior seasons, plus we’re seeing fewer and fewer books offering fair teaser odds, so I think it’s best to wait until Week 1 before putting together any teaser tickets.

Bears (-2.5) at Panthers: See above. If you believe the Bears are for real, you might want to lay the 2.5 now in case that disappears over the summer, but you know I’m “dog or pass,” so I’m passing for now.

Jets at Titans (-2.5): See above.

Saints at Lions (-7): The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened the Lions -6.5 while Boomer’s Sportsbook opted for Lions -7.5. The line settled at 7 everywhere very quickly and seems about right after the Lions underachieved last season and the Saints overachieved. I’m not willing to take Saints +7 now as the Lions have become a public team in recent years, so I’m thinking this is more likely to go up than go down.

Commanders at Eagles (-4.5): Both teams had a disappointing 2025 season as the Eagles were defending Super Bowl champs but lost in the wild-card round to the 49ers, while the Commanders had high expectations after their 2024 playoff run, only to stumble to a 5-12 season. This line is pretty solid at Eagles -4.5 (with Circa the only Vegas book at -4), so you should be able to get these numbers in September.

Packers at Vikings (pick ’em): The Packers opened between -1.5 and -2.5 but were quickly bet to a consensus PK. Some books are back to Packers -1, but it’s not worth firing on either team in this coin-flip game. Come September, I’ll probably tease the Vikings above a TD if available, but there’s no rush.

Buccaneers (+3.5) at Bengals: The Bengals are expected to be improved with a healthy Joe Burrow as they went 6-1 last season, 5-3 with Burrow starting and a dismal 1-8 without him. The Buccaneers also had a disappointing season at 8-9 as they couldn’t even win the mediocre NFC South, but I still don’t think the Bengals should be favored by more than a FG. In fact, I definitely think this game is a coin flip and should be closer to pick ’em, especially as Baker Mayfield is 3-0 in games that both Heisman Trophy winners have started (and those were when he was with the much worse Browns).

Cardinals (+10.5) at Chargers: Even though this is the biggest spread of Week 1 (and I still love double-digit NFL underdogs even though they don’t perform as well as they used to), this is the least confident that I’m making the right call to bet now. Even though the line is pretty solid at Chargers -10.5, they did open -11.5 at DraftKings, so it’s possible the line could rise again, especially if starting QB Jacoby Brissett doesn’t end his holdout and the Cards have to turn to Gardner Minshew or rookie Carson Beck. However, the line is down to Cardinals +10 at the Wynn Las Vegas, and I’m hoping it continues to drop.

Dolphins (+3.5) at Raiders: Like most of my contrarian dog plays, this is more a fade of the favored Raiders. I mean, even though the Dolphins are in rebuilding mode, should the Raiders be favored by more than a field goal over anyone? They’re coming off a 3-14 season that earned them the No. 1 pick in Indiana’s Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza, but it’s widely expected that free agent signee Kirk Cousins will actually start Week 1. I’m not a huge fan of new Miami QB Malik Willis, but I still expect this line to dip to a flat 3 over the summer in a season-opener between teams that are expected to be mediocre at best in the short term.

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NFL Betting Trends for Week 1

Game Totals Generally Favor the Under

History tells us offenses usually take some time to find their rhythm.

Since 2005, Week 1 unders have hit at a 55% rate. Since 2015 – the year extra points moved back – those games are 96-79 to the under, a 54.9% hit rate.

The last two years have seen mixed results since the introduction of a new kickoff rule. The 2024-25 season saw seven games go under the total in Week 1. Last year, the figure rose to 12.

In a small sample size, games featuring larger totals in Week 1 tend to favor the under. Over the last two years, 23 games closed with a total north of 43, with 15 staying under the total.

However, 11 of those 15 successes came in the 2025-26 season.

Good ATS Teams From Last Year Did Well

This is a very small sample size, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.

That being said, teams that posted an above-average ATS percentage the prior season continued their success.

Over the last two years, teams that posted a 50-59% ATS rate the prior year went 15-7 ATS in Week 1 since 2024.

That system returned a positive ROI in three straight years:

• 2023-24: 5-3 (+18.7% ROI)
• 2024-25: 9-5 (+22.9% ROI)
• 2025-26: 6-2 (+43.9% ROI)

Over a larger sample size, teams saw an increased hit rate playing teams that made the postseason.

Since 2021, teams with an ATS percentage between 50 and 59% against prior playoff teams are 20-7 ATS, including 10-2 as a market favorite.

This year’s matches are the 49ers, Falcons, Texans, Vikings and Panthers.

Worth noting: teams that missed the playoffs against a team that made it are on a 9-2 ATS run. That’s Atlanta and Minnesota.

A Scenario Where Favorites Have Performed Well

Week 1 favorites have provided superior results in games featuring two good teams.

Since 2005, Week 1 games pitting two playoff teams against one another have seen favorites go 33-21-1 ATS.

The system assumes a non-neutral site game. Over the last four years, those teams went 8-5 ATS, including 4-1 as a road favorite. Since ‘05, those road favorites are 10-6 ATS.

Both home and road teams produced a near-equal ROI between -2.5 and -6. Since ‘06, favorites within that range are 24-6-1 ATS – 16-4-1 at home, 8-2 on the road.

This year, those two teams are Chicago and Seattle. Buffalo also qualifies as a 1.5-point favorite at Houston.

Following are BetMGM’s February opening odds for which NFL team will win Super Bowl LXI:

• Seattle Seahawks +800
• Los Angeles Rams +900
• Baltimore Ravens +1200
• Buffalo Bills +1200
• Green Bay Packers +1400
• Philadelphia Eagles +1400
• Detroit Lions +1500
• Kansas City Chiefs +1500
• Los Angeles Chargers +1500
• New England Patriots +1500
• San Francisco 49ers +1700
• Denver Broncos +2000
• Houston Texans +2000
• Jacksonville Jaguars +2000
• Chicago Bears +2500
• Cincinnati Bengals +3000
• Dallas Cowboys +3000
• Indianapolis Colts +4000
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4000
• Minnesota Vikings +5000
• Washington Commanders +5000
• Atlanta Falcons +6600
• New York Giants +6600
• Pittsburgh Steelers +8000
• Carolina Panthers +10000
• Tennessee Titans +10000
• Cleveland Browns +15000
• Los Angeles Raiders +15000
• New Orleans Saints +15000
• Arizona Cardinals +25000
• Miami Dolphins +25000
• New York Jets +25000

Below are opening odds to win the AFC in the 2026-27 season, from DraftKings Sportsbook:

• Buffalo Bills +550
• New England Patriots +650
• Baltimore Ravens +650
• Los Angeles Chargers +750
• Kansas City Chiefs +750
• Houston Texans +950
• Denver Broncos +950
• Jacksonville Jaguars +1000
• Cincinnati Bengals +1400
• Pittsburgh Steelers +2200
• Indianapolis Colts +2200
• Tennessee Titans +5000
• Cleveland Browns +7500
• New York Jets +9000
• Las Vegas Raiders +9000
• Miami Dolphins +10000

Below are opening odds to win the NFC in the 2026-27 season, from DraftKings:

• Seattle Seahawks +500
• Los Angeles Rams +500
• Philadelphia Eagles +650
• Green Bay Packers +750
• Detroit Lions +750
• San Francisco 49ers +900
• Chicago Bears +1300
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1700
• Dallas Cowboys +1700
• Washington Commanders +3000
• Minnesota Vikings +3000
• New York Giants +4000
• New Orleans Saints +4000
• Carolina Panthers +4000
• Atlanta Falcons +4000
• Arizona Cardinals +10000

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