The NFL season is a rolling river that ebbs and flows, so it’s never wise to read too much into any one data point.

Read on to see the previews for Week 6 with our Lock of the Week, Upset of the Week, and early picks for all 14 games. The Tennessee Titans, Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, and Houston Texans are all on byes.

NFL Picks and Predictions: Lock of the Week

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

Betting line
Cardinals -2.5; Cardinals -140, Seahawks +120; O/U 50.5

The Arizona Cardinals, with one of the least explosive offenses in football, are somehow road favorites against the NFL’s No. 7 scoring team.

Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks are on some kind of roll, scoring 103 points over the last three weeks — just two fewer than the Cardinals have managed all season. The Seahawks rank second in yards per play (6.6) and third in yards per pass (7.8). Rashaad Penny’s season-ending injury definitely hurts, but they still have Kenneth Walker III who is averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

And the most encouraging part of the Seahawks’ recent run? They haven’t just gotten fat against bad defenses. Yes, they’ve padded their stats against the Lions and Falcons. But they also dropped 32 on the Saints — who are 10th in defensive EPA per play (-.04).

So, the Seahawks should move the ball against the Cardinals who are in the bottom third of the league in EPA per play (.06), yards per play allowed (5.9), third down stops (44%), and red zone defense (66.7%).

Seattle’s problem? Getting stops. That defense is terrible. The good news is the Cardinals’ offense — which ranks 25th in third downs and last in yards per pass (5.4) — more often than not stops itself.

Computer Predictions:
Seahawks 27, Cardinals 23

NFL Picks and Predictions: Upset of the Week

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Betting line
Colts -2; Colts -135, Jaguars +115; O/U 42

We’ll probably never forgive the Jaguars for laying a dinosaur-sized egg against the Texans after we made Jacksonville our lock of the week. But let’s not kid ourselves — that loss was on Trevor Lawrence. He threw an inexcusable second-half interception in the end zone and barely completed 50% of his passes in a second-straight terrible outing.

The rest of the Jaguars’ active roster played exactly how we expected. They held the Texans to 3.7 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per play, further establishing themselves as one of the league’s top defenses. The Jaguars defense ranks in the top 10 in scoring (16), yards per play (5.1), yards per rush (3.7), and interception rate (4.2%).

Jacksonville will face a Colts offense that is simply dreadful. Indianapolis is 29th in both yards per play (4.9) and yards per carry (3.6). Even assuming Jonathan Taylor (ankle) returns, it probably won’t make much of a difference. Taylor has just 113 yards on his last 41 carries.

If Lawrence isn’t again a turnover machine, the Jaguars win — and perhaps comfortably.

Computer Predictions:
Jaguars 27, Colts 23

More NFL Picks and Predictions

Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears

Betting line
Bears -1; Bears -115, Commanders -105; O/U 37.5

I know whenever I get a chance to watch a matchup between the 29th and 30th best offenses in the league according to DVOA, I am glued to the monitor. If I were a betting man, I’d hammer the under. I don’t even know what it is, but I’m sure it’s not low enough. So, of course, this game will somehow end up finishing 31-30 or something insane like that.

We saw some positive signs from Justin Fields a week ago against the Minnesota Vikings, particularly during the Bears’ second-half comeback attempt that was ultimately foiled by a fumble. Still, only Baker Mayfield has posted a worse CPOE through five weeks. The Bears’ passing attack is still a long way away from being watchable

Things in Washington might be even worse. Ron Rivera had to apologize to the team after essentially throwing his new quarterback under the bus. He even chalked it up to having a bad day. But that shouldn’t be a new feeling for the veteran head coach. He’s 15-23 in his third season with Washington.

Computer Predictions:
Commanders 20 Bears 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Betting line
Buccaneers -8; Buccaneers -380, Steelers +310; O/U 44

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a wreck, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ sails are a bit tangled. The Tampa Bay offense is getting healthier, but they’re still struggling more than we anticipated going into the season.

The Steelers’ passing attack is atrocious. They’re getting the ball out quickly to remedy what is an underwhelming offensive line from a talent perspective. That line has performed better than expected so far, but the passing attack lacks both explosiveness and consistency. We’ll see how things progress with Kenny Pickett when he isn’t playing a super talented defense, but we’ll have to wait another week because the Buccaneers are talented.

The Buccaneers passing attack is rounding back into form, but their run game has disappeared since starting red hot against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1. In fact, it’s the worst in the NFL based on EPA, and it’s not particularly close. Since Week 2, they have a rushing EPA of -.432. The Colts have the second-worst number at -.270.

Computer Predictions:
Buccaneers 26, Steelers 17

New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers

Betting line
Packers -7; Packers -340, Jets +280; O/U 45

At some point, the Packers will have to figure out their offense, and a Jets team with a young secondary might be the solution to issues that have popped up around Green Bay’s young receiving corps. That said, it’s not an easy matchup offensively, as the Jets have developed their pass rush, without blitzing, to impact opposing quarterbacks.

The Packers are most effective this year in quick-game passing, especially when paired with their high-ceiling running game, and that’s likely the best way to take on the Jets. On the other side of the ball, things should be a bit easier.

Zach Wilson was lucky to not throw more interceptions in his debut and could be prone to mistakes, especially without much chemistry with his receiving unit and an injury-weakened, porous offensive line. The Jets are building good bones, but they aren’t there yet. It will take some extraordinary performances from key rookie-contract players like Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner to pull off a big upset.

Predictions:
Beasley: Packers 27, Jets 21

Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants

Betting line
Ravens -5; Ravens -225, Giants +190; O/U 45

Las Vegas still refuses to acknowledge the Giants as a real contender in the NFC. The 4-1 Giants are a five-point underdog at home to the Ravens, who are 3-2 and have blown two fourth-quarter leads.

Lamar Jackson has played incredibly well early on in the NFL season, and the Baltimore defense appears to be turning things around after an iffy start to the season. However, that defense has struggled to defend against the run so far in 2022, and they’re about to play arguably the leader in the OPOY clubhouse.

The Giants are seventh in rushing EPA, and the resurgence of Saquon Barkley is a massive reason for their success. He doesn’t currently hold the lead for the rushing title, but he does lead the league in scrimmage yards. Daniel Jones is playing some of the best football of his career, and although the Giants may not have a ton of talent on paper, they are a well-coached team.

Computer Predictions:
Ravens 30, Giants 21

San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Betting line
49ers -5.5; 49ers -240, Falcons +200; O/U 44.5

Normally, seeing an expertly designed offense go up against a well-rounded and disciplined defense would be a lot of fun, but Atlanta doesn’t have the personnel to execute all elements of that offense. Instead, we’ll get to see backup-level quarterback Marcus Mariota take on technically-a-backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, with all the offensive fireworks (or lack thereof) that game implies.

Still, Atlanta has made strides and can challenge teams with their talented skill players, allowing them to keep things close — in fact, every game they’ve played has ended within one score, even against top-tier contenders like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons can score points and rank 11th in the league in EPA per play.

It’s the other side of the ball that will cause problems. The 49ers, perhaps more than any other team, put stress on an opposing defense’s ability to tackle. And the Falcons only have a few bright spots on their defense capable of playing a full 60 minutes against players like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk, and a corps of Kyle Shanahan-coached running backs without making a mistake on that front.

Computer Predictions:
49ers 24, Falcons 20

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New Orleans Saints

Betting line
Bengals -2; Bengals -125, Saints +105; O/U 43

Andy Dalton defeated the Bengals in each of his first two games against his former club, and he might get a chance to go 3-0 vs. Cincinnati if Jameis Winston (back) can’t play in Week 6. Whoever is under center should benefit from Michael Thomas’ expected return, but Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry’s statuses remain unclear.

Aerial weapons aside, New Orleans has become a running-based team. They’ve posted the league’s fifth-lowest pass rate over expectation, preferring to hand the ball to Alvin Kamara and jack-of-all-trades Taysom Hill. Whichever route they choose, the Saints could be in for tough sledding against a Bengals defense that’s held each of its opponents to 20 points or fewer.

That defense has kept Cincinnati in games, as Joe Burrow and the offense haven’t sustained consistent production. Expect the Bengals’ run-game woes to continue — New Orleans ranks first in EPA against the rush. Thus, the pressure is on Burrow, Zac Taylor, and the passing offense to create chunk yardage.

Computer Predictions:
Saints 23, Bengals 21