Washington Football Team () at Atlanta Falcons
The Football Team took an ugly loss in Week 3, succumbing by a 43-21 score to the Bills that wasn’t even as close as that pretty large margin indicates. Atlanta, meanwhile, managed to notch the first victory of the Arthur Smith Era, besting the hapless Giants on the road by a 17-14 score on a Younghoe Koo 40-yard field goal as time expired.
Taylor Heinicke continued to produce serviceable numbers in Washington’s loss, but he also threw a pair of interceptions and attempted only 24 passes in a game his team lost the time of possession battle in by over 11 minutes. The matchup is much softer this week against Atlanta as compared to traveling to Buffalo. Antonio Gibson, who ripped off a 73-yard catch-and-run touchdown off a screen pass Sunday, could be set to get back on track on the ground and help keep the Falcons’ defense honest.
Matt Ryan and his teammates on that side of the ball seem to be getting the hang of their new offense week by week, with the veteran quarterback looking sharp Sunday while completing 27 of 36 attempts against New York and throwing a pair of touchdowns without an INT. Pass protection continues to be an issue though as Ryan was taken down another three times last Sunday. Washington brings an aggressive front that’s averaging two sacks per contest.
Washington remains a narrow favorite following Week 3 outcomes despite Atlanta’s victory and host status in Week 4.
Lean Towards Falcons
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills ()
The Texans gave it a valiant effort on Thursday night to kick off Week 3 against the Panthers with Davis Mills under center, but they came up predictably short, 24-9. The Bills manhandled Washington by a 43-21 margin, with Josh Allen having his first breakout effort of the season with five total touchdowns.
Mills actually didn’t look bad for a rookie third round pick making his first NFL start, and on a short week of prep time to boot. The Stanford product showed excellent chemistry with Houston’s No. 1 wideout Brandin Cooks, who looks to be on pace for one of the best seasons of his impressive career, and he had to forge ahead without much of a running game. The veteran trio of Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson were stymied by a Panthers defense that rightfully wasn’t too worried about Mills beating them downfield. Houston could well encounter a similar scenario against an even savvier Bills unit.
Allen offered a reminder of why he earned a record extension in the offseason with his Week 3 effort, throwing for 358 yards and four scores while adding a fifth visit to the end zone with his legs. What should be even more concerning for the rest of the AFC is that he accomplished it without a major contribution from Stefon Diggs (6-62) and continued to show improved chemistry with offseason arrival Emmanuel Sanders (two TDs).
Meanwhile, Houston’s secondary is already allowing 269.3 passing yards per game, setting up another potentially big day for the star signal-caller.
Buffalo unsurprisingly opened as a massive 16.5-point home favorite late last week. Not sure Bills will be that pumped to play Texans. On the other hand they could have a field day scoring.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears ()
The Lions certainly can’t afford to think this way but the rest of us are free to – Detroit may just be a cursed franchise. Those are the types of thoughts that spring to mind when one sees a team get beat on a 66-yard field goal that bounces off a crossbar. The Bears had no such close call last Sunday as they were beaten by the Cleveland Browns, 26-6.
The Lions are undoubtedly playing hard for head coach Dan Campbell, and it’s fair to wonder what the new coach will be able to do once he has anything that resembles a legitimate NFL receiving corps at his disposal. For the time being, new QB Jared Goff is doing the best with what he’s got and is looking solid under the circumstances. The backfield duo of D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams is contributing plenty through both the ground and air. Detroit’s defense also played better than expected against Baltimore but were helped by three dropped passes for Marquise Brown that would have gone for long gains and/or TDs.
That Detroit defense might be just what QB Justin Fields needs to regain his confidence after his abysmal showing against Cleveland. The heralded rookie mustered all of 68 passing yards and another 12 on the ground while taking a whopping nine sacks. The offensive line, which has now given up a whopping 15 sacks through three games, certainly bears blame. But Fields deserves a slice of blame pie for indecision. Chicago could potentially utilize this matchup to get David Montgomery back on track after a pair of lackluster weeks and get Fields some help in the process by keeping the defense honest.
Oddsmakers and the public have taken note of the Lions’ new fighting spirit and the Bears’ ineptitude. A line that opened with the Bears as 6.5-point favorites has been shrunk significantly following Week 3 results. We will lean towards the DOG and LIONS (+).
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys ()
The Panthers continued their strong start in the Week 3 TNF game, besting a short-handed Texans squad by a 24-9 score but also losing Christian McCaffrey to injury. Dallas, meanwhile, got its own primetime victory as it dismantled the rival Eagles at AT&T Stadium.
Sam Darnold has looked right at home in Carolina over his first three games, but he’ll encounter a major challenge this coming Sunday against the Cowboys. A McCaffrey-less Panthers offense is naturally a less potent one, and more will be expected from Darnold and his pass catchers as a result. They’ll be tasked with keeping up with a potent Dallas attack on its home turf, albeit while catching Dallas with a massive rest disadvantage.
Lean Towards the POINTS!
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins ()
The Colts continued their early-season free fall against the Titans on Sunday, dropping a 25-16 decision to their division rival. The Dolphins went through plenty of trials and tribulations in Jacoby Brissett’s season debut as a starter and ultimately fell to the Raiders by a 31-28 overtime score.
Carson Wentz toughed it out through two sprained ankles this past Sunday, but he was far from his sharpest while completing just over 50.0 percent of his throws and averaging a meager 5.2 yards per attempt. Indy only attempted 18 rushes as well in a game script that eventually turned away from the ground attack, and the Colts clearly lack explosion in the passing game without T.Y. Hilton (neck) and with Parris Campbell simply not reliable enough. Hilton would be eligible to come off IR for this game but isn’t expected to be quite ready.
Brissett unsurprisingly looked a bit more composed under center against Vegas with a week to prepare as the starter and with the threat of Will Fuller on the outside. Fuller only produced a 3-20 line and two-point conversion, though, and Brissett averaged a tiny 4.4 yards per attempt. The dink-and-dunk approach is likely going to be hard to win many games with. Miami coach Brian Flores may opt to put more on the shoulders of Myles Gaskin, considering Indianapolis comes in allowing 140.3 rushing yards per contest.
Although neither team looks particularly threatening at the moment, one has to be favored, so oddsmakers have defaulted to a narrow advantage for the host Dolphins. We will side with PHINS (-1) against Banged up Indy Team!
Cleveland Browns () at Minnesota Vikings
The Browns got Odell Beckham on the field for the first time in 2021 last Sunday against the Bears, but it took until the fourth quarter for Cleveland to truly separate and notch a 26-6 win going away. The Vikings atoned for two losses to open the season by beating the visiting Seahawks, 30-17, with Dalvin Cook unavailable due to an ankle sprain.
Baker Mayfield was a bit wild high with a couple of early throws against Chicago, but he eventually settled down to put together a solid performance. Mayfield hit Beckham on five occasions for a team-leading 77 yards. Kareem Hunt also stepped up as both runner and receiver, which was bad news for a porous defense like Minnesota’s.
Alexander Mattison once again proved himself to be one of the most valued backup RBs in the league with his effort in Cook’s stead, compiling 171 total yards. Cook’s status for this game won’t likely be known until very late in the week or gameday itself, but Mattison serves as an excellent insurance policy and complement to the pass-catching exploits of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Kirk Cousins owns an 8:0 TD:INT ratio through three weeks but will get a stiff test from Cleveland. The Browns now have 12 sacks after taking down Justin Fields nine times Sunday and have yielded just 181.7 passing yards per contest.
The Browns opened as narrow road favorites and remained so after Week 3 results. Tough game to call but feel Browns are much better on O and D Lines.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints ()
The Giants suffered a second straight close loss Sunday, losing to the Falcons at home on a Younghoe Koo 40-yard field goal as time expired. The Saints’ rollercoaster start continued, as they bounced back from a debacle against the Panthers to topple the Patriots on the road, 28-13.
Daniel Jones accounted for 305 yards of total offense and played mistake-free football Sunday (he recovered both his fumbles), but it still wasn’t enough to get the Giants their first win. Saquon Barkley (94 total yards, one rushing TD) does look stronger by the week yet New York’s receiving corps is now thin with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton being forced from Sunday’s contest with hamstring injuries. The condition of both players may not be known until very close to gameday given the tricky nature of the injuries. A matchup against a talented Saints defense that can force plenty of turnovers is a dangerous one for Jones even with a full arsenal.
Sean Payton once again kept Jameis Winston in a very strict game manager role against New England and it resulted in a victory for the second time in three weeks. Winston has yet to attempt more than 22 passes in any of his first three games – a stark departure for a quarterback that put up a whopping 626 attempts in his final Buccaneers season in 2019. The favorable matchup against a porous New York unit may tempt Payton to open the playbook a bit more.
The Saints opened as near-touchdown favorites in the look-ahead line and Week 3 results did nothing to discourage that number. In fact, it eclipsed 7 points as the week began.