AFC favorites to win the Super Bowl
Since the NFL-AFL merger and the shift to the current two-conference alignment in 1970, the NFC holds a slight 27-25 edge in Super Bowl victories. The AFC side has come up short the last two times, but that came on the heels of the conference winning five of the six previous big games. Here’s a look at the current favorites on the AFC side:
Buffalo Bills +600
The Bills have ended their season with playoff losses to the Chiefs for the last two years. With the Bills currently atop the Super Bowl futures market, this could be the year for the team to get over the hump.
Josh Allen, one of the top young QBs in the league, leads the offense. Scoring points should not be an issue as he has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Over on defense, an already strong unit added LB Von Miller in free agency.
Buffalo has not been to the Super Bowl since four consecutive trips — all losses — in the early 1990s. The current incarnation of the Bills hearkens back to the glory days of the franchise.
Kansas City Chiefs +1000
Following two straight trips to the Super Bowl — a win over the San Francisco 49ers and a loss to the Buccaneers — the Chiefs came up short in last year’s AFC title game. Kansas City was a seven-point favorite in advance of the overtime loss at home to the Bengals.
For the initial release of this year’s Super Bowl odds, the Chiefs were on top of the board at +700. There has been a shift in sentiment since that point as the team has fallen a bit, but it still remains one of the top five favorites.
Perhaps the biggest catalyst for the movement in the numbers was the trade of star wideout Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, but the Kansas City offense will likely remain potent as long as QB Patrick Mahomes is there.
Los Angeles Chargers +1400
Heading into the 2021 NFL season, the Chargers were one of the teams receiving a lot of hype. While the team made progress, those calls proved to be off the mark.
Los Angeles missed the playoffs for the third season in a row, wrapping up the year with a mark of 9-8. That was good for third place in the AFC West, just off the pace for the final playoff berth in the conference.
The Chargers have been aggressive in the offseason, highlighted by a trade for pass rusher Khalil Mack. He’ll be part of a one-two punch on defense with Joey Bosa. Add in rising star QB Justin Herbert and a solid offense, and the arrow appears to be pointing up in LA.
NFC favorites to win the Super Bowl
The NFC is riding a two-game Super Bowl winning streak. Unlike the AFC side, where there appear to be a number of realistic contenders, the NFC looks rather top-heavy at the moment. Let’s take a look at the top three favorites on the NFC side:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +700
Super Bowl lines for the Buccaneers have been on a rollercoaster ride since first coming out, as have the hopes of the team’s faithful. You can point to the same reason for both developments: the incredibly brief retirement of Tom Brady.
The legendary signal-caller announced that he was hanging up the cleats on Feb. 1. The odds for Tampa Bay quickly got longer as a result. Six weeks later, on March 13, Brady reversed course, as did the Bucs’ odds to win the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay is now the top favorite on the NFC side. Head coach Bruce Arians has stepped aside, but Todd Bowles is taking over a team that has been to two straight NFC title games, with a chance to make it three in a row.
Green Bay Packers +1000
There was an elephant in the room at the start of the offseason for Green Bay: would Aaron Rodgers stay or go? That question was put to bed in March when the reigning NFL MVP inked an extension to stick around for three more years.
Now 38 years old, Rodgers remains at the top of his game. He has won four MVP awards during his illustrious career, but the Packers have won just one Super Bowl during his tenure as a starter.
The Green Bay offense took a big step back with the trade of receiver Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders. If the defense remains strong, the Packers are right in the mix for NFC supremacy.
Los Angeles Rams +1100
It’s tough to repeat as Super Bowl champs. The last team to pull it off was the 2003-04 New England Patriots. Los Angeles clearly has its work cut out just to make it back to the game, but the defending champion is rightfully one of the top choices to win it all once again.
There has been attrition to deal with for the Rams. Among the absences is Von Miller, who signed with the Bills. Los Angeles has also been a destination for several new arrivals, including LB Bobby Wagner and receiver Allen Robinson.
In short, the team is loaded with talent once again. QB Matthew Stafford and Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp lead a dynamic offense, while the defense looks poised to once again be among the best in the league with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.
Super Bowl 57 odds tracker
From the initial release of Super Bowl futures odds into the preseason and beyond, there’s always plenty of movement on the odds board. Down below, you’ll find a chart that tracks the numbers for all 32 NFL teams.
As you’ll see, there have already been some notable shifts. In advance of Super Bowl 56 and immediately following it, the Chiefs (+1000) and Bills (+600) were the consensus favorites. Today, Buffalo is still a top choice, but the odds for Kansas City have dipped since the initial release.
A little farther down the list, the odds for the Denver Broncos (+1600) have soared while the line on the Seahawks has plummeted (+15000). That’s a result of the offseason trade that sent star QB Russell Wilson from Seattle to Denver.
Super Bowl odds tracker last updated: July 28, 2022
Super Bowl 2023 risers and fallers
During the course of the NFL season, fortunes rise and fall for all 32 teams along the way. The same holds true throughout the offseason via the eyes of the futures market. Here are the most notable risers and fallers for the 2023 Super Bowl.
Denver Broncos: +3500 to +1600
For a team that closed out the season at 7-10, the odds for the Broncos to make the Super Bowl were already in the top tier. That was because the franchise was expected to make a big move at QB. Once that happened, the club’s Super Bowl lines jumped even further.
The trade for Russell Wilson is a game-changer. Denver now has a top-flight QB, a solid surrounding cast on offense, and plenty of talent on defense. The AFC is loaded this year, but the Broncos could have something to say about how it all shakes out.
Philadelphia Eagles: +4000 to +2500
As a relatively surprising playoff team last season, the Eagles didn’t stand pat in the offseason. The team improved the defense with signings including Haason Reddick while drafting Jordan Davis with its first-round pick. The offense also got a boost when the team swung a trade for wideout AJ Brown.
Once you get past the top teams, the NFC looks barren. Over in the east, it looks like a two-horse race between the Eagles and Cowboys. Philadelphia has the talent to compete and a clear path to the postseason, but we’ll have to wait and see if the Eagles can deliver.
Seattle Seahawks: +3500 to +15000
When you trade away your franchise QB without a clear succession plan in place, your Super Bowl odds are going to take a hit. That’s where things stand for a Seahawks team that shipped out Russell Wilson in the offseason.
The team received back a bounty of draft picks and QB Drew Lock. While that may bode well for the future, it doesn’t inspire optimism for the upcoming season.
New England Patriots: +2000 to +5000
A shift of this magnitude suggests that the club had a really tough offseason, but that’s not exactly the case. So what gives? The release came just days after the club had its clock cleaned by the Bills in the playoffs.
It might have still been pretty fresh in the minds of bettors, who later also saw several AFC teams make trades and signings to improve while New England lost top cornerback JC Jackson to the Chargers.. Looking ahead, the club should be in the mix for a postseason berth once again, but Super Bowl dreams might remain just that for a while.
Atlanta Falcons: +6500 to +20000
Since the initial release, the numbers on the Falcons have dropped like a stone. The team shipped long-time starting QB Matt Ryan to the Colts. Free agent signee Marcus Mariota and rookie Desmond Ridder will be the names to watch in the preseason.
While the team has been doing its best to put out a positive spin, there’s no getting around the fact that a year of transition is on the way. Oddsmakers and the betting public are clearly anticipating that as Atlanta is the second-to-last option on the board at DraftKings.