1. New Orleans Saints (23.3%)
Finally, FO has the Saints as the NFL’s best team by a measure of overall DVOA in 2020 at 23.3%, and only the Chiefs top New Orleans’ Average Wins projection of 10.5. It works in theory if Drew Brees rides out into the sunset at his best, Emmanuel Sanders can take enough of the heat off Michael Thomas, and a defense that experienced some great work and some inconsistency in the secondary can come together. A lot of “ifs” there, and I would personally put both the Chiefs and Ravens ahead of the Saints in projected value for the 2020 season, but the arguments for the Saints’ impressive depth at most positions are well-founded.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (22.5%)
The Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters to the team that won Super Bowl LIV, and the addition of first-round running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire should make Patrick Mahomes even more impossible to deal with. Add in the masterful job general manager Brett Veach has done this offseason in massaging the salary cap to retain several of his cornerstone players in the midst of giving Mahomes the approximate gross national product of France. It’s easy to bet against any kind of regression in 2020, especially since defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo returns for a second season, aiming to continue last season’s second-half improvement. FO has the 2020 Chiefs with a 22.5% overall DVOA and 10.8 Average Wins; the only thing I would say is that their projection of Kansas City’s 14th best defensive DVOA might be a bit conservative.
3. Baltimore Ravens (16.4%)
FO’s projection of a 16.4% overall DVOA and 10.0 Average Wins for the Ravens came before the team decided to release Earl Thomas, but this group is loaded enough on both sides of the ball to overcome that. The loss of guard Marshal Yanda to retirement might be the bigger issue. This third-place finish in overall DVOA for 2020 estimates a massive regression from Baltimore’s 41.8% DVOA in 2019, which was the seventh-highest total in the DVOA era, which goes back to 1985. If Lamar Jackson continues to take positive steps as a pure quarterback, the Ravens might finish first in DVOA again — and perhaps there’s a Super Bowl in their near future.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8.6%)
Obviously, a lot of FO’s positive projection for the Bucs (an 8.6% overall DVOA and 8.9 Average Wins) has to do with Tom Brady throwing to the best group of receivers he’s had since Randy Moss and Wes Welker terrorized the rest of the NFL in the late 2000s. But don’t sleep on a defense that Todd Bowles ran from dead last in the NFL in 2018 to fifth overall in 2019. Brady may not be what he once was, but he’s also no longer handicapped by Julian Edelman and the Pips as he was last season.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7.0%)
Last season, the Steelers’ defense led the NFL in turnovers, sacks, and total pressures. It was a remarkable performance made even more so by the fact that with Ben Roethlisberger missing 14 games due to injury and no coherent backup plan, Pittsburgh ranked dead last in offensive DVOA. Roethlisberger’s return will obviously reverse that misfortune, and even if the defense regresses a bit, it’s still a vicious experience for every offense it faces. FO has the 2020 Steelers with an overall DVOA of 7.0%, a standing of 11th in offensive DVOA, and 9.0 Average Wins. Take the over if the franchise quarterback is healthy.
6. Indianapolis Colts (6.0%)
FO has the Colts with an overall DVOA of 6.0%, and 8.9 Average Wins. This is in part of the job general manager Chris Ballard has done in assembling a team with very few holes, and teams like that tend to outlast more boom-and-bust squads. Last season, the Colts were obviously affected by the low-power presence of Jacoby Brissett after Andrew Luck’s bombshell retirement, and there’s a lot of optimism that Philip Rivers’ reunion with Frank Reich (who coached Rivers in San Diego from 2013 through 2015) will allow Rivers to cut down on his more YOLO tendencies. That’s a possibility. Another possibility is that the Rivers, who threw six interceptions in the last two minutes of games in 2019 (Jameis Winston finished second with three), is who Rivers is at this point. No amount of team balance will overcome a repeat performance.
7. Dallas Cowboys (5.9%)
If you are a firm believer that the Cowboys will be one of the NFL’s best teams, as FO appears to be, you have to accept that new head coach Mike McCarthy won’t spike his team with his recycled 1973 Miami Dolphins offensive playbook as he often did in Green Bay. Indications are that offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will handle the play calls, and he’ll hopefully have more than the drawings on bar napkins of three different slant/flat concepts McCarthy has ridden for years. If that’s the case, Dak Prescott will be throwing to a trio of receivers in Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb that will make life very difficult for defenses with Moore’s more evolutionary route concepts, and new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan may throw some different looks in as well. FO has Dallas with a projected overall DVOA of 5.9%, and 8.8 Average Wins.
8. Seattle Seahawks (5.3%)
The Seahawks don’t do things like other teams. In an era when nickel and dime defenses are the new normal, Seattle played base defense on 69% of its snaps in 2019 — more than 30% higher than the Cardinals, who ranked second. Seattle also has a top-three quarterback in Russell Wilson, who, for whatever reason, the Seahawks’ coaching staff prefers to treat at times like a mid-level stater from a game-management perspective. Still, Seattle was far better in base defense than it was with five defensive backs, and when Wilson was allowed to be Wilson, the Seahawks still managed an 11-5 record. FO isn’t convinced that the defensive improvement that needs to happen in 2020 will happen, though it’s important to note that their projections of 5.3% in overall DVOA, a ranking of 25th in defensive DVOA and 8.5 Average Wins happened before the Jamal Adams trade.
9. New England Patriots (4.7%)
Not much going on in Foxboro, outside of the transition from the greatest quarterback in NFL history to a replacement in Cam Newton who, if healthy, gives Bill Belichick the most mobile quarterback he’s ever had, and an incendiary threat in the red zone. Newton will need that because New England’s receiver corps is still problematic. Though the Patriots’ defense was the best in the business last season from a secondary perspective, regression may come calling. Belichick has a history of beating the odds, so while the FO projections of a 4.7% overall DVOA and 8.5 Average wins sound about right, having the Pats blow the projections out of the water would also not be a surprise.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (4.1%)
FO has a metric called “Adjusted Games Lost,” which, in a nutshell, is what it sounds like — the number of games lost due to injury of a team’s starting players. Usually, the variance in AGL from year-to-year is quite high, as injury luck tends to fluctuate. But after leading the NFL with 117 Adjusted Games Lost in 2018, the Eagles came right back and had a 2019 AGL of 84., and a whole lot of that happened to their banged-up receiver corps. And key injuries are already mounting in 2020. Head coach Doug Pederson may want to investigate voodoo-related options at this point. In any event, based on year-to-year injury luck the Eagles don’t seem to have, FO has them with a 4.1% overall DVOA and an Average Wins total of 8.5.
11. San Francisco 49ers (4.0%)
So, there’s a thing called the “Plexiglas Principle,” which states: a team that improves drastically in one season tends to regress the next. That’s why FO has the 49ers falling back from the top of the NFC to the pack. Of course, the Plexiglas Principle doesn’t account for the improvement in quarterback from Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard to a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo, but we’re not quite sure what Garoppolo’s ceiling is, either. And though the 49ers field one of the NFL’s best defenses, is it possible that regression will hit? Maybe. In any case, an overall DVOA projection of 4.0% and an Average Wins total of 8.4 are sure to be controversial when it comes to the defending NFC champs.
12. Atlanta Falcons (3.9%)
Speaking of teams whose identities are unknown… the Falcons had a remarkable second-half turnaround in 2019, starting the season 1-7 and ending it with a 6-2 streak. This had a lot to do with the increased involvement of Raheem Morris, who’s now Atlanta’s defensive coordinator. But FO doesn’t place much weight in major single-season defensive turnarounds, pointing out that defensive performance from season to season tends to be highly volatile. That’s why FO has the Falcons with a team DVOA of 3.9%, a defensive DVOA of 0.1% (Atlanta’s defensive DVOA was -7.8% in the second half of the season, and remember, defensive DVOA is better when it’s negative), and an Average Wins total of 8.1.
13. Los Angeles Rams (3.2%)
Who knows what the Rams are these days? They could be the 13-3 squad that made it to Super Bowl LIII at the end of the 2018 season, or they could be the 2019 team that finished 9-7, out of the playoffs. FO thinks the 2020 Rams will be more like the 2019 Rams, and I find it difficult to disagree. Teams that drop from an offensive DVOA of over 20% to under 5% in a one-season stretch don’t tend to revert to their best form, and Jared Goff’s obvious limitations could put a pin in that. FO has the Rams projected with a total DVOA of 3.2%, and an Average Wins total of 8.4.
14. Tennessee Titans (-0.5%)
The extent to which you believe that the Titans will compete for a Super Bowl berth in 2020 pretty much matches whether you think Ryan Tannehill was a one-year wonder in 2019. I’m on the side that believes Tannehill is in the right system and has the right attributes to be what he was last year. Still, FO is less bullish, given breakout seasons from guys like Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Case Keenum, and Ryan Fitzpatrick that never went anywhere. That’s why they have Tennessee projected with a -0.5% team DVOA, and an Average Wins total of 8.1 — a bit of a decline from last year’s 9-7 mark.
15. Arizona Cardinals (-0.5%)
If you believe that 2020 is the Year of Kyler Murray — the next second-year quarterback to make a major leap following Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, you are not alone. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins certainly helps, and FO projects an improvement in Arizona’s defense from “meh” to above average. It won’t be enough to climb near the top in the insanely competitive NFC West. Still, Arizona’s projected DVOA of -0.5% and Average Wins total of 8.1 indicate positive steps to the Cardinals becoming a real competitive force.
16. Green Bay Packers (-1.0%)
Wait. WHAT? The Packers went 13-3 last season. They have Aaron Rodgers. They have a running back in Aaron Jones, who led the league in total touchdowns last season with 19. They have a fine defense led by the pass-rushing duo of Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, and shouldn’t Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur coalesce more in LaFleur’s second season? Well, the 2019 Packers had the second-worst DVOA of any 13-3 team from 1985 through 2019, behind only the 1999 Colts. One of the 10 worst 13-3 teams. That’s why Green Bay has a projected team DVOA of -1.0%, and 7.8 Average Wins. This is one projection I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team transcend, but there are warning signs on the horizon.
17. Detroit Lions (-1.3%)
The 2019 Lions were gobsmacked by two rogue issues that seemed unsolvable — the back injury that cost Matthew Stafford half the season, and head coach Matt Patricia’s insistence on playing the league’s most man coverage with either defensive backs who were not suited for it, or defensive backs who were before they were shipped out of town because they weren’t Patricia’s kinds of guys. Stafford will be back in 2019. And based on his performance estimates, the Lions are projected to have a team DVOA of -1.3%, with 8.0 Average Wins. But if anything happens to Stafford’s hope of a full season? Yikes.
18. Buffalo Bills (-1.6%)
The Bills head into 2020 with most of the things you want in a team these days. But as is the case in real life, FO estimates that the Bills will go only as far as quarterback Josh Allen can take them, and based on any available advanced metric you want to incorporate, that’s less than optimal. Allen’s comps to date are guys like Jacoby Brissett, Mike Glennon, Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bortles, and Eli Manning. In other words, there’s potential, but it’s going to have to work better than it has. That’s why FO has the Bills with a projected team DVOA of -1.6%, and an Average Wins total of 7.8. The Bills are estimated to have the league’s 28th-best offensive DVOA, and to rank first overall in defensive DVOA.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (-1.8%)
Jon Gruden is heading into their third season in charge of the Raiders, and a new location doesn’t eliminate the issues keeping this team from the playoffs. FO projects the Raiders with a team DVOA of -1.8%, with the defense lagging behind, and 7.7 Average Wins. A lack of faith in any sort of defensive consistency seems to be the primary bugaboo here, in the FO scholars’ minds.
20. Minnesota Vikings (-2.3%)
The first big surprise. The loss of Stefon Diggs to the Bills via trade is a blow, and there’s a ton of uncertainty regarding the cornerback position. Still, the cornerback position was a disaster last season when everybody knew that Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes were the main guys, and the Vikings still went 10-6. FO projects a defensive regression that might yet exist after the trade for Yannick Ngakoue, and surprisingly, Kirk Cousins isn’t seen as a primary negative issue. Still, the projects are for a team DVOA of -2.3%, and 7.8 Average Wins.
21. Chicago Bears (-2.5%)
As is the case with the actual Bears, the FO-projected Bears are hanging on the potential of either Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles, which is the primary reason Chicago has a team DVOA projection of -2.5% and an Average Wins total of 7.8. The good news? FO projects the Bears to have the NFL’s third-best defense per DVOA. The bad news? FO projects that the Bears will not transcend their quarterback issues, ranking 25th in Offensive DVOA projections. This, of course, could apply to just about any Bears team since the pre-rock-and-roll era.
22. Los Angeles Chargers (-3.2%)
FO’s team DVOA projection for the Chargers of -3.2% and Average Wins total of 7.5 came before this week’s horrible news that defensive back Derwin James, one of the NFL’s best at his position(s), will miss a significant part of the 2020 season with a knee injury, one year after missing all but five games in 2019 due to a foot issue. FO still believes that the Chargers’ defense will be pretty ferocious — they’re ranked 10th in the league in FO’s estimation — but the quarterback position, manned as it is by Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert, isn’t making their abacuses shake with much positive news.
23. Houston Texans (-3.3%)
Obviously, head coach/general manager Bill O’Brien’s completely skewed concepts of player value and crazy-quilt personnel moves factor heavily into this 2019 playoff team dropping off pretty severely. The Texans are projected to have a team DVOA of -3.3%, and an Average Wins projection of 7.5. All we have to add is: #FreeDeshaunWatson.
24. Cleveland Browns (-5.1%)
Is this the year that the Browns’ talent coalesces and gives the franchise its first playoff appearance since 2002? Not according to FO. The Browns are projected with a team DVOA of -5.1%, with the offense ahead of the defense, and 7.5 Average Wins. These projections were made before safety Grant Delpit’s season-ending Achilles tendon injury, and the possibility that cornerback Greedy Williams could miss serious time with a shoulder injury. Perhaps the acquisition of, say, Logan Ryan or Earl Thomas would bump up both the projected and actual win totals.
25. New York Jets (-5.7%)
Remember what we said about FO not putting much predictive weight in Denver’s 4-1 end-of-season record? Well, take that and apply it to the Jets’ 6-2 mark in the second half of 2019. The belief is that quarterback Sam Darnold’s early-season battle with mononucleosis, which aligned with the Jets’ horrid offensive performance, normalizes the idea that Darnold let it rip in the second half of the season. Also: Adam Gase. Enough said. The Jets are projected with a team DVOA of -5.7%, and an Average Wins total of 7.4.
26. Denver Broncos (-5.9%)
Even with the draft additions of receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, FO isn’t convinced that quarterback Drew Lock is ready to take the proverbial Next Step, and doesn’t put much predictive value in the team’s 4-1 finish to the 2019 season. That’s why they have the Broncos projected with a team DVOA of -5.9%, 26th in the league, and 7.0 Average Wins. It doesn’t help that per Estimated DVOA, Denver has the third-toughest strength of opponent in the league.
27. New York Giants (-8.8%)
The FO crew are not big believers in Daniel Jones, and given his splits by dropback, it’s easy to see why. On 0-1-step drops, Jones led the league with 7.4 yards per attempt. On three-step drops, that went down to 6.3 yards per attempt, and Jones’ touchdown rate dropped while his interception rate rose. On five-step drops, Jones managed just 5.5 YPA and an anemic touchdown rate of 1.9%. Not good. The Giants are projected to have an overall DVOA of -8.8%, with 7.0 Average Wins.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.9%)
The last one out the door, turn off the lights. FO projected the Jaguars with a team DVOA of -8.9%, with the offense projected to be 29th in the league, and the defense projected to rank 19th. Now that pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue has been traded to the Vikings, and the last Pro Bowler of the NFL’s best defense in 2017 has been erased off the roster, one might wonder if the Jags should be projected lower. Leonard Fournette getting waived doesn’t help, either. One thing, though — Gardner Minshew is better than you think he is, even if the coaching staff and front office may not know what to do with him, either.
29. Cincinnati Bengals (-12.8%)
After finishing 2-14 in 2019 and claiming LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the first overall pick in the 2020 draft as their “reward,” the Bengals are projected to post an overall DVOA of -12.8%, with the offense far ahead of the defense. This should come as no surprise — though Burrow has some weapons and can succeed at a very high rate in the NFL, it’s also tough to reconcile what looked to be a very disorganized defense in 2019 under first-year coordinator Lou Anarumo.
30. Miami Dolphins (-15.0%)
The Dolphins surprised a lot of people by amassing five wins in the “Tank for Tua” season, but now that they actually have Tua Tagovailoa, it’s unknown when the rookie quarterback will start. The offense is very much under construction, especially the offensive line, and though the defense is built to perform more impressively than some might believe, FO still has the Dolphins with a 2020 DVOA of -15.0%, and just 6.4 Average Wins — which would indeed be an improvement over 2019.
31. Carolina Panthers (-16.9%)
Not surprising to see the Panthers down this low as a clear rebuild is underway. FO projects the team with an overall DVOA of -16.9%, and no 2020 NFL team has a lower Average Wins total than Carolina’s 5.7. It’s a youth-driven team without much star power right now outside of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and running back Christian McCaffrey, and McCaffrey might be the only sure thing in the building.
32. Washington Football Team (Estimated DVOA: -17.7%)
Football Outsiders anticipates that the Washington Football Team will have a team DVOA of -17.7%, and the projected Offensive DVOA of -17.8% is by far the league’s lowest — the Jets rank second at -11.4%. The FO crew is not bullish on the near-future potential of quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who posted the fifth-worst DVOA of any rookie quarterback from 2008-2019 Jared Goff, Josh Rosen, Jimmy Clausen, and Blaine Gabbert