I’ll believe it when I see it – that’s my stance on the Packers’ offense right now. I dove deeper into it here, but the short version is this: Rodgers’ pregame interview with Fox last week was telling, and I don’t know how invested in football – and the Green Bay organization – he truly is right now.

After a Week 1 embarrassment, in which his “replacement” finished the game, how confident are we really in an immediate bounce-back from a guy who said he has nothing left to prove? The Lions lack talent but have a ton of fight and will to have their best on offer in what is something of a Super Bowl for them: a game against their rivals during prime time.

The identity of Dan Campbell’s team will be a ground-and-pound attack, and they have two capable backs in D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. (A Williams revenge game, anyone?) The Packers struggle to stop the run and will be without Za’Darius Smith, which will aid Detroit’s game plan to piece together long, clock-draining drives and keep Rodgers on the sideline. We have an old-fashioned NFC Norris battle on our hands here, and both teams’ punishing approach will cause this game to fall comfortably shy of the total.

Detroit Lions +11.5

We make so many snap judgments about teams after one week, yet we’re willing to give the Packers a pass because they have Rodgers. While the MVP can heal a lot of wounds for a football team, he’s not magic. Call me crazy, but I’d like to see the Packers impress before I ask them to cover a big number.

We pegged the Packers as upset-vulnerable last week, and while I don’t necessarily think they’ll lose this game, there’s still reason for concern. Along with the holes in the offensive line, the defensive line lost a key contributor in Za’Darius Smith.

Jared Goff just saw the Packers in the playoffs last season, and former Packers running back Jamaal Williams will be running hard against a bad run-stopping unit. Say what you want about the Lions’ talent level in this stage of their build, they showed last week that they won’t pack it in if getting blown out. I’m not sure it gets to that point, so I’ll take the 11.5 and dare Green Bay to fix things almost overnight.