2019 was a tough year in Jacksonville. After losing new franchise quarterback Nick Foles in Week 1, they were left in an unexpected quarterback controversy after sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew stepped in and led the team to four wins in their first eight games. However, from 4-4 things went downhill, and the Jaguars won just two of their final eight games. With Minshew now the unquestioned starter, what do the betting odds look like for the Jacksonville Jaguars entering the 2020 NFL season? Do they have a chance to surprise and win more games than the sportsbooks project?

Jacksonville Jaguars’ 2020 season win total preview: Offseason breakdown

Additions

It was a relatively quiet offseason for the Jaguars when it came to free agents and experienced players. They added Tyler Eifert and Chris Thompson, who will both bring an added threat in the passing game for Minshew. Eifert has demonstrated he can be a useful receiving threat, but staying on the field has been a serious issue, as he has played in double-digit games just three times in his career. Thompson will be an intriguing weapon out of the backfield, and could absorb some of the targets they relied on Leonard Fournette for in 2019.

Defensively their most significant addition was middle linebacker Joe Schobert, who provides much-needed stability in the middle-level of the defense that they lacked after losing Telvin Smith in May 2019. Schobert has started 45 games in the last three years with the Cleveland Browns, totaling 380 tackles, six interceptions, and seven forced fumbles. One place they will need to see improvement from Schobert is in pass coverage, having allowed a 69.1% completion rate on 55 targets in 2019.

They also added Rashaan Melvin, who will compete to be a Week 1 starter alongside D.J. Hayden and first-round selection C.J. Henderson. Melvin is a journeyman cornerback, who allowed a 63% completion rate on 92 targets last season, giving up four touchdowns and 104.1 QB rating.

Losses

Part of the reason the offseason was quiet in terms of veteran additions is that it was quiet in terms of losses as well. The biggest news was the departure of Nick Foles. However, Foles had been replaced as the starter by Minshew following the 28-11 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12. Therefore, while in name, it was a significant loss, in reality, the trade of Foles is insignificant to the Jaguars season.

The most substantial loss in terms of on-field production was cornerback A.J. Bouye, who had been with the team for three seasons, starting 43 of the 48 games during that period. Given they traded away Jalen Ramsey during the 2019 season, the starting cornerback pairing will look very different in 2020.

The final headline departure was the trade of Calais Campbell to the Baltimore Ravens. Campbell had started all 48 games in the past three seasons, racking up 31.5 sacks, six forced fumbles, and 44 tackles for loss.

However, 2019 was his worst season in terms of statistics, with just 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. At the age of 34, it is more likely than not his impact would have decreased once again. His departure means that we will see the potentially dynamic duo of Josh Allen and Yannick Ngakoue on the field together in 2020.

The Jaguars have one of the most middle-of-the-road schedules of the 2020 season, with 14 of their 16 opponents projected to win between 6.5 and 9.5 games. What that means is that while the schedule is not overly difficult, it is certainly not easy either. Their easiest game of the schedule is projected come in Week 4 when they face the Cincinnati Bengals, and their toughest is expected to be Week 15 on the road against the Baltimore Ravens.

They do have a reasonably easy start, with three of those first six games coming against teams projected to win 6.5 games or less in the 2020 season. However, what that means is that if they do not capitalize early, then this season could look awfully messy, real quick. Not one of their final 10 opponents are projected to win less than eight games, which means there will be no let-up in the second half.

This schedule for the Jaguars does not get any more comfortable when you start breaking it down in more detail. They do only have to play one prime time game in 2020, which comes in Week 3 when they host the Miami Dolphins. Playing regularly on a Sunday can be an advantage as it avoids short weeks and the complications that come from being on Thursday or Monday Night Football regularly.

However, outside of primetime games, there are several disadvantages on the schedule for the Jaguars. Firstly, the Jaguars were supposed to play back-to-back home games in London in 2020. That second game would have been a massive advantage for the Jaguars, but with the cancellation of the International Series in 2020, that advantage has been lost.

Additionally, the Jaguars are at a disadvantage in both of their games against the Houston Texans. In the first game, it will be the second of back-to-back road games, following the game in Cincinnati in Week 4. In the Week 9 matchup, they will catch the Texans coming off their Week 8 bye, while the Jaguars will have spent the previous weekend playing on the West Coast.

That is also the second team coming off a bye that the Jaguars will face in 2020. In their Week 6 matchup with the Detroit Lions, the Lions will be coming off their bye week as well. Catching teams off a bye can be an advantage some seasons, but generally, it is viewed as an advantage for the team coming off the bye. Then to compound all of this, the Jaguars will also have to host the Green Bay Packers in Week 10, coming off the disadvantageous situation in Week 9 against the Texans.

Suggested bets

Current win total: 5.5

2020 is going to be a really tough year for the Jaguars. They play in an extremely tough division, with a schedule that never lets up throughout the 17 weeks and with multiple points of disadvantage. They are going to need Minshew to take the next step as a quarterback if they are to remain in the playoff race into the second half of the season.

So much of their season will depend on how they perform in that opening six games, where the three weakest projected opponents on the schedule can be found. If they come out of that with three wins, then they have a shot of hitting the over. However, coming out of that stretch with just one or two wins could mean we see the Jaguars struggling to get close to five wins, which is the total projected by my colleague Cole Thompson.

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Given that the Jaguars lack sure-fire contributors at key positions, there is a lot to be pessimistic about entering 2020. First-round pick Henderson could be thrown into the starting lineup quickly on the outside, and the team will likely be looking at their pass rush to help out a mediocre secondary.

That pass rush could be superb if Allen and Ngakoue are together, but rumors swirling that Ngakoue will not play on the franchise tag, or could be traded, then they may not have that pass rush to lean on. If the pass rush cannot consistently harass opposing quarterbacks, then this defense could find themselves vulnerable to being passed on plenty in 2020, putting a lot of pressure on their second-year quarterback.

The play of Minshew is going to be the crux of whether this team gets close to hitting the over or not. If Minshew struggles, then 5.5 wins looks exceptionally high. However, if he takes the next step in certain areas, then we could be looking at a team capable of getting closer to a .500 record.

However, even if Minshew does take those steps, six wins with their schedule and a team devoid of talent in multiple areas will be tough. Therefore, this looks like a prime opportunity to take the under on the Jaguars projected win total.

1u – Jacksonville Jaguars Under 5.5 2020 regular-season wins