After two thrilling Championship games, the matchup is set for Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, Feb. 13, in Los Angeles, where the Rams will play in their home stadium against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Rams had to climb back from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter – the largest margin ever in the final quarter of the NFC Championship game – to avoid losing a seventh straight matchup with the physical 49ers. Now Sean McVay’s club is headed to the Super Bowl for the second time in four years, although this time he has some new pieces in place.

Matthew Stafford has enjoyed the confines of SoFi Stadium all year. He posted a 21:6 TD:INT ratio over eight regular season home games and completed 71% of his passes for 539 total yards with four TDs and one pick over two home starts in these playoffs. McVay’s offense has also been integrating trade acquisition Odell Beckham Jr., who topped 100 receiving yards in the NFC Championship for the first time since October, 2019. And Cooper Kupp – who won the receiving triple crown with a monster season – was out with an ACL tear when the Rams lost, 13-3, to the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII in 2019.

The Bengals opened the two-week lead into Super Bowl LVI in a familiar role, as underdogs. Joe Burrow and his young offensive teammates weren’t necessarily expected to win at Tennessee or Kansas City, but they took down the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the AFC with an assist from rookie kicker Evan McPherson, who is 12-for-12 on field goal attempts and 4-for-4 on extra points in these playoffs. McPherson kicked another game winner to down the Chiefs, but the Bengals might have lost starting TE C.J. Uzomah (knee) in the process.

While Burrow has been clutch since the last third of the regular season, Cincinnati’s defense has been the biggest reason for a remarkable turnaround. The Bengals went 4-12 last year and finished with the fewest wins (2) in the NFL two seasons ago. Cincy owner Mike Brown responded by shelling out major money for defensive acquisitions, including sack leader Trey Hendrickson. They added a trio of experienced CBs in Eli Apple, Chidobe Awuzie, and former Pittsburgh mainstay Mike Hilton, and added depth along the defensive line through the draft.

Here are the betting trends of note for both the Bengals and the Rams from recent seasons:

• The Rams are 7-10 Against The Spread (ATS) when favored this season
• The Rams are 2-7 ATS when facing AFC foes since 2020
• The Rams are 10-2 Straight Up (SU) in non-division games this season
• Rams games are 6-3 to the Under this season when they’re favored at home
• The Bengals are 6-1 ATS when listed as road underdogs this season
• Bengals games are 6-1 to the Under when they’re listed as road dogs this season
• The Bengals are 7-3 SU on the road this season
• The Bengals are 2-3 ATS and SU when facing NFC foes this season
• Bengals games are 4-0 to the Under when they’re playing on a rest advantage this season

LA VS. CINCINNATI GAME MATCHUP

The Rams got stud second-year RB Cam Akers back from an Achilles tear shortly before the playoffs, but received a scare when he had to depart the NFC Championship with a shoulder issue. Akers returned to action, but starting TE Tyler Higbee (knee) appeared to suffer a serious injury that could thrust second-year TE Kendall Blanton into a leading role on Feb. 13.

Rams safety Taylor Rapp (concussion) should be able to clear protocol after missing their previous three playoff games. Penn State product Nick Scott has been starting at SS with veteran Eric Weddle available as an emergency option after he came out of retirement for an appearance against the Cardinals in the Wild Card round.

With Aaron Donald anchoring the middle, the Rams have allowed just 54 rushing YPG at a 3.2 YPC clip in these playoffs. They held the Cardinals and 49ers under 290 total scrimmage yards, but have allowed three rushing scores in these playoffs. During the regular season, 54.6% of TDs scored against the Rams at SoFi Stadium came on the ground, which is the highest percentage in football. However, the Bengals scored rushing TDs at the fourth-lowest rate (22.2%) in road games.

Burrow has flashed tremendous chemistry with former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase, but he might have to look elsewhere with top-rated CB Jalen Ramsey looking to shadow the rookie. In the AFC Championship, the Bengals attacked rusty Chiefs CB Makonnen Fenton with big-bodied WR Tee Higgins to pick up key conversions throughout the second half. Higgins should see a lot of Darious Williams in this matchup. Williams allowed a league-average 62% catch rate and stands at 5-foot-10 while Higgins is listed at 6-foot-4 with a 67.3% catch rate on the season.

Joe Mixon has handled the lion’s share of touches out of Cincy’s backfield all season and he posted 105 scrimmage yards at Tennessee and 115 scrimmage yards at Kansas City. Mixon’s rushing production dropped slightly in road games this year with 9 of his 13 TDs coming at home, but he averaged 10.4 yards per catch in those road games. In the NFC Championship, the Rams yielded three catches for 50 yards to Elijah Mitchell.

The Bengals have not been strong in rush defense lately. They’re allowing 127.3 rushing YPG at a 5.9 YPC clip in these playoffs, but only gave up 4.2 YPC on the road in the regular season. CIncy’s defense is bending without breaking, as they’ve held opponents out of the end zone on 61.5% of red zone possessions this postseason. The Bengals were the third-best red zone defense on the road during the regular season.

Stafford clearly looked more comfortable at home all season and that helped the Rams convert on a league-high 53.3% of third downs at SoFi stadium (compared to just 34.6% of third downs on the road). The Rams leaned on the pass while averaging the fourth-fewest rushing YPG (93.7) in those contests and they’ve struggled to finish drives with a 46.7% TD conversion rate in the red zone this postseason.

Cincy has been even worse in the red zone with a 36.7% TD conversion rate in the postseason. Burrow is completing 68.9% of his passes, but has taken 12 sacks with two interceptions so far in his postseason career. The Bengals allowed the second-highest sack rate (9.2%) this season, yet still went deep frequently with the third-most yards per pass (7.8).

The Rams averaged the second-most yards per pass (7.9) and the fifth-most passing YPG (277.9) this season. Their QB was sacked at the sixth-lowest rate (4.8%) and their defense produced the third-most sacks (50) on the other side of the ball.

HOW THE RAMS VS. BENGALS SUPER BOWL LINE IS CHANGING

Below is a look at how the odds for the Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl are changing in the days leading up to kickoff. The Bengals opened as +4 underdogs against the Rams and here are how things have changed since. The spread has toggled at most online sportsbooks between the original -4 Rams number and Rams -4.5 since the line was initially set.

Caesars Sportsbook posted a Rams -3.5 number on the Thursday ahead of the Super Bowl.

• Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl spread Sunday, January 30: Rams -4, Bengals +4
• Super Bowl spread Monday, January 31: Rams -4.5, Bengals +4.5
• Super Bowl spread Friday, February 4: Rams -4.5, Bengals +4.5
• Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl spread Sunday, February 6: Rams -4, Bengals +4
• Super Bowl spread Monday, February 7: Rams -4.5, Bengals +4.5
• Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl spread Tuesday, February 8: Rams -4, Bengals +4
• Super Bowl spread Wednesday, February 9: Rams -4.5, Bengals +4.5
• Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl spread Thursday, February 10: Rams -4, Bengals +4
• Super Bowl spread Friday, February 11: Rams -4, Bengals +4