Top 25 Picks and Previews
No. 7 BYU at No. 3 Utah (-5.5) (12 p.m., ABC)
The “Holy War” should be amazing. This is the first top-10 showdown between the in-state rivals. BYU has averaged 2.5 yards per carry the last two weeks – a trend that could be reversed if running back LJ Martin returns. Utah averages 6.4 yards per carry in the same stretch. How will Devon Dampier and Bear Bachmeier add to those totals?
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No. 5 UCLA (-6.5) at Minnesota (12 p.m., Fox)
UCLA ranks third in the Big Ten in total defense (260.8 yards per game). How will that travel to Minnesota? The Gophers are a hangover risk after the overtime loss at Indiana, but Minnesota allowed 12 points per game in home wins against Michigan and Iowa. The Bruins are 8-0 ATS this season. UCLA has allowed seven points per game in its last five games, but this will be a tough one on the road.
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No. 10 Texas (-2.5) at No. 19 Missouri (12 p.m., ESPN)
This is a tricky line. Missouri averages 167.1 rushing yards per game behind Austin Simmons, who has a 165.5 passer rating at home. Arch Manning has played in just one road game this season – a 20-17 victory against Tennessee when he had 201 passing yards and an interception. Missouri has a plus-5 turnover margin in SEC play. The Longhorns are minus-5. That’s the key for Texas to get out with a victory.
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Texas A&M at No. 23 South Carolina (-7.5) (3 p.m., ESPN)
The Gamecocks average 35.7 points per game in its last three victories, and LaNorris Sellers has seven TDs and one interception in that stretch. Texas A&M averages 10.7 points per game in three SEC road losses, but the Aggies are coming off a bye week. South Carolina is 1-2 ATS when favored against Power 4 opponents, so this is a dicey line. Remember the 31-30 thriller between these teams last year?
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Oregon at No. 11 Ohio State (-7.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Interesting spot here for the Buckeyes after the loss to USC. Does Ohio State rally around backup quarterback Luke Fahey, who had an uneven performance in his first start? Oregon is 1-2 S/U on the road this season, and Dylan Raiola will be tested by the Buckeyes’ defense. Oregon has allowed 400 rushing yards on 5.3 yards per carry the last two weeks, however, and Ohio State has never lost consecutive regular-season games under coach Ryan Day.
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No. 9 Alabama at No. 15 LSU (-5.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer is 2-0 S/U against LSU. Both teams had a bye week to prepare. Can the Crimson Tide generate enough on the ground behind quarterback Keelon Russell? Sam Leavitt averages 338.5 passing yards, seven TDs and no interceptions with a 75.9% completion percentage since the loss to Kentucky. Lane Kiffin was 3-3 S/U at home against top-10 opponents at Ole Miss. Will he get his first huge home win for the Tigers?
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Cincinnati at No. 17 Houston (-10.5) (3:30 p.m., Fox)
The Bearcats have won the last five meetings in the series, but Cincinnati has allowed 203.3 rushing yards per game through a 1-3 stretch. That’s almost identical to the 203.5 rushing yards the Cougars average on the ground. Houston is 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite, but we like their chances to pull away here in the second half behind running backs Makhi Hughes (516 yards, 4 TDs) and Ra’Shaun Sanford II (447 yards, 2 TDs).
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No. 20 Boise State (-17.5) at Colorado State (6 p.m., USA Network)
Colorado State ranks 137th in the FBS in scoring defense under first-year coach Jim Mora. Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen suffered a leg injury in Week 9, but backup Max Cutforth had 131 passing yards and three TDs in his place. The Broncos can lean on Dylan Riley against a Rams’ rush defense that allows 261.6 yards per game. Colorado State is 0-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog.
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No. 8 Kentucky at No. 16 Tennessee (-6.5) (6:15 p.m., ESPN)
Tennessee has one of the most-disruptive defenses in the SEC led by defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam. How will Kenny Minchey fare against a pass defense that leads the conference at 165.6 yards per game? Kentucky’s defense can play, too, with a run defense that allows 113.3 yards per game. The Vols are 5-0 S/U against the Wildcats under Josh Heupel, but Kentucky has enough offense to pull off another SEC road upset.
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No. 2 Georgia (-3.5) at No. 12 Ole Miss (7:30 p.m., ABC)
What will Georgia do to slow down Trinidad Chambliss, who averaged 340.5 total yards with five TDs in the two meetings against the Bulldogs last season? Gunner Stockton can match that. He averaged 285.5 total yards with eight total TDs in those matchups last season, and we trust Georgia’s defense a little more in this matchup. The Bulldogs are 3-1 ATS as a road favorite with Stockton the last two seasons.
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No. 1 Miami at No. 4 Notre Dame (-5.5) (7:30 p.m., NBC)
This line has moved up a point from its opening. Can Notre Dame land enough pressure on Darian Mensah to slow down a Hurricanes’ offense that leads the FBS with 49 points per game? CJ Carr was making his first career start against Miami last season. He has 10 TDs and one interception in his last three games, and the Hurricanes have allowed 300-plus passing yards with 10 TDs in three straight games. Remember, Miami has lost three straight in South Bend since 1984. The game delivers on the hype, and the Irish score their signature victory.
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No. 21 Iowa at Northwestern (-1.5) (7:30 p.m., Fox)
This line is a bit surprising. The Wildcats average 40.3 points per game at the new Ryan Field, but the Hawkeyes have won the last four meetings in the series and rank fourth in the FBS in rushing defense at 79 yards per game. The coordinator matchup between Chip Kelly and Phil Parker is worth it – and Iowa is 2-0 S/U as a road underdog.
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Oklahoma at No. 25 Florida (-6.5) (7:45 p.m., SEC Network)
Which team bounces back? Oklahoma’s run defense popped in the loss to South Carolina by allowing 212 rushing yards. The Gators average 92 rushing yards per game the last four weeks. John Mateer averages 263 passing yards with four TDs and no interceptions for the Sooners the last two weeks. This translates to an ugly game, but the Gators pull out the victory late.
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West Virginia at No. 13 Texas Tech (-17.5) (9:30 p.m., ESPN)
The loaded college football week should end with a shootout. West Virginia allows 32.2 points per game, and Thomas Castellanos and J’Koby Williams should have success against a Mountaineers’ defense that allows 166 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry. West Virginia can counter with Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook in the running game. They have combined for 1,759 rushing yards on 5.0 yards per carry.