College Football Sleepers. College football has many predictable elements to it. Only a few schools are truly in contention for a College Football Playoff bid, and the Heisman Trophy will go to the best quarterback on a top 10 team. We know which conference will produce the national champion (the SEC), if Texas will be back (no), and who will have the worst offense in the Big Ten (Iowa). We know which conference will cannibalize itself from the playoff (the Pac-12), which conference will have a refereeing crew blow a game in preposterous fashion (again, the Pac-12), and which conference will bury a marquee matchup on a cable channel most of the country can’t see (you guessed it, the Pac-12).
But the 2023 season will also bring many opportunities for College Football Sleepers / teams to break out in exuberant fashion and enthrall the nation with their surprise performances. Let’s predict the future by using the 2022 surprise teams and try to find candidates for the upcoming season that fit in a similar mold.
Florida State, Oregon State, Penn State, Texas
The Longhorns, Nittany Lions, and Seminoles were stalwarts during the rise of televised, big-money college football and through the BCS era. Each has suffered through lean years in recent memory, but many expect that to change this season. By the time August rolls around, you will be sick and tired of hearing about these three three marquee programs from the national media hype train, because the case for each program is obvious.
Penn State brings back a sturdy defense and plans to fix its limited offense by turning over the reins to blue chip quarterback Drew Allar. His ascendancy, along with star running backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, will finally elevate the Nittany Lions past the Buckeyes and Wolverines and into the tournament. Florida State has one of the most talented rosters in the country, an impressive portal class full of proven stars, a manageable ACC schedule, and a Heisman contender quarterback in Jordan Travis. Texas finds itself ready to reap the rewards of the rebuild of a three-year upward arch – and Arch Manning – and will rise to reclaim the Big 12.
At least one will certainly break through, but all will have so much hype that their success will hardly be a surprise. (Bonus prediction: one of these three will also match another 2022 surprise team, the Texas A&M Aggies, but for the opposite reason.)
The pick is the Oregon State Beavers. Jonathan Smith’s outfit is sneaking under the radar of Pac-12 hype, even though it won 10 games, finished ranking 17th in the country, and beat Oregon and Florida to close out the season. The Beavers had the second-best defense in the conference in 2022, and they gave USC hell in a narrow 17-14 loss. Running back Damien Martinez is a star; he eclipsed the century mark in each of the last six regular season games. They did all this with second-string freshman quarterback Ben Gulbranson pressed into action after an injury to starter Chance Nolan. Smith scored an upgrade at the position with incoming transfer DJ Uiagalelei (another sly Tennessee parallel: a former ACC washout transfer quarterback resurrecting his career in new digs).
Oregon State has a friendly schedule, as well: no Power Five opponents in the non-conference, and the Beavers do not have to face USC in the regular season. The Beavers have four league games at home compared to five on the road, but the breakdown is friendly: conference peers UCLA, Utah, and Washington all travel to Corvallis, and they catch doormats Colorado, Arizona, and California in winnable road games.
10-2 or 11-1 is on the table for Smith, who has built a sturdy program in the shadows of more hyped regional rivals. Here’s to believing that this is the year the Beavers take another step forward.
Auburn, Louisville, Wisconsin
Yes, I’m grouping TCU and Washington together here, and not because both wear purple. I know TCU won the Big 12 regular season and went to the national championship, while Washington did not play for its conference title, nor was it in the playoff picture. While the results were miles apart, the process was very similar: new coaches inheriting a pretty solid roster and effectively turning the page from the previous staff and revitalizing a culture that had grown stale.
The Badgers will certainly be a popular pick to reprise this storyline, thanks to Luke Fickell bringing new energy to a program in desperate need of it. His new offensive coordinator (Phil Longo) and transfer quarterback (Tanner Mordecai) bring a style of ball that has literally never been seen in Madison before. The defensive talent is already in place, and the division is imminently winnable. Louisville will also receive a jolt in the offensive playbook, as Jeff Brohm finally arrives from Purdue. The Cardinals had a salty defense last season, and the new ACC schedule is very friendly, but replacing star quarterback Malik Cunningham will be a challenge.
Auburn’s slide to the nadir was reminiscent of TCU’s: an old-school ball coach trying to do old-school ball coach things in the modern era, like cronyism on staff and a lack of interesting ideas on offense. The talent never really waned in Fort Worth; it was just poorly appropriated, and the same thing could be said on The Plains. Bryan Harsin’s Tigers ranked 18th in 247 Sports’s team talent composite, but 55th in SP+ when Harsin was finally shown the door after Week 9. Auburn will not make the playoff like TCU did – not with its annual dates with Alabama and LSU and a bout with Georgia looming – but a 10-2, 9-3 season is in the works.
Arizona State, Colorado, Rutgers
Greg Schiano continues to inch Rutgers back toward respectability, and this season his team returns 73% of production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, good for 23rd in the country. The Scarlet Knights open with Northwestern and then a manageable non-conference schedule, giving them the chance to gain some confidence before the Big Ten slate. Kenny Dillingham is charged with rebooting the Arizona State program, and he has done just that, with over 40 newcomers (transfers and high school recruiters) joining the locker room. Dillingham was last seen revitalizing the Oregon offense in Dan Lanning’s first year; can he pull off the same trick in the desert?
Colorado is the pick here, and the entire college football world will be watching. The Buffaloes had roamed through some rough terrain in recent years, but Deion Sanders – and his talented son, quarterback Shedeur Sanders – have arrived to inject life. A host of talented recruits and transfers are also setting up camp in Boulder, and expectations are actually beginning to soar for a one-win team.
James Madison, Liberty, South Alabama
Liberty replaces a clean-cut evangelical play-calling wizard with a mulleted evangelical play-calling wizard. The Flames will have a clear financial and institutional advantage over almost every other program in the new-look C-USA and could be favored in every game they play this fall. South Alabama was five points away from a 12-0 season in 2022 – losing only by one to UCLA and four to Troy – and will return stars on both sides of the ball, ranking 13th in Connelly’s returning production.
But the pick is the Dukes in only their second year of FBS football. James Madison’s defense was outstanding last season, especially in the front seven; the Dukes return 81% of their defensive production (seventh on that side of the ball). Head coach Curt Cignetti will have to reload the offense after losing his trio of stars with QB Todd Centeio, RB Percy Agyai-Obese, and WR Kris Thornton. Arizona transfer Jordan McCloud is the favorite to run the offense, and Kaelon Black was impressive filling in for Agyei-Obese and is ready for a workhorse role. Cignetti is known as a quarterback whisperer and has made a habit of building powerhouse offenses in Harrisonburg. This is one of the sturdiest college football programs not in Tuscaloosa or Fargo, and the Dukes will find themselves in a New Year’s Six bowl game.
Akron, Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie at Louisiana Tech and Joe Moorhead at Akron are two well-regarded offensive minds charged with bringing exciting play – and hopefully wins – to the moribund programs they inherited. Cumbie’s Bulldogs were atrocious on defense in 2022, ranking 130th in SP+, but rank sixth in returning production. The offense was far better (59th in SP+), but will be reloading; Cumbie’s Air Raid system and incoming transfer QB Hank Bachmeier give fans reason for optimism for continued success, along with the forgiving C-USA slate. Akron is a tougher sell; Moorhead is spearheading one of the toughest rebuilds in FBS but has a returning star in dual-threat QB DJ Irons.
Arkansas State is the choice here. Butch Jones’ Red Wolves are ready to turn the corner in the third year of his tenure. Jones has a proven track record of success and just signed his second straight top recruiting class in the Sun Belt. Replacing veteran QB James Blackman won’t be easy, but Colorado transfer J.T. Shrout will get the first crack at the gig. Jones’ outfit finished last in the Sun Belt West last season, finishing with three wins overall and a 1-7 mark in conference. But that record doesn’t show that Jones is building the program’s overall competency; in five of their losses, the Red Wolves held a lead in the fourth quarter. The old adage applies here: first you lose big, then lose close, then win close.
End College Football Sleepers