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Archived: College Football Betting Angles

Nov 16, 2022 EST

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Local MAC rivals sitting less than 25 miles apart in Northwest Ohio, where the BGSU campus and its Dix Stadium sit in clear view off of I-75. But Toledo has routed the Falcons the past two years by 49-17 & 62-24 scores after enduring a stunning upset at hands of BGSU in 2019, when the 26 1/2-point underdog Falcs marched into Dix and walked out a 20-7 winner.

Take a look at thisWeeksBetting Angles in College Football.


The Rebs have covered this matchup the last two seasons, including a 27-13 win last November 13 at Allegiant Stadium. But UNLV on 5-game SU skid this season, even with 4-1 spread mark away. Meanwhile, the Bows have covered five of last six in 2022, including last four on islands. Note the connections between these programs and the many Hawaiian island natives living in Clark County; for a time there was thought of moving Hawaii’s entire home schedule to Las Vegas and the old Sam Boyd Stadium on Boulder Highway after news in the past two years that Aloha Stadium was to be condemned, though UH instead opted to build a temporary stadium on campus while a replacement for Aloha moves beyond the planning stages.
Utah @

These teams met twice late last season with both results strongly favoring Utah, which clubbed the Ducks 38-7 on November 20 and came back to destroy the Webfoots again in the Pac-12 title game two weeks later in Las Vegas, 38-10.
Fresno State @

Last year must seem a long time ago for Nevada, which won a 41-31 shootout on the blue carpet last October 2 behind a big effort from RB Toa Taua, who blasted for 124 YR and a pair of TDs, while since-departed QB Carson Strong passed for 263 yards. But after a 2-0 break from the gate this season, Nevada has lost eight straight (1-7 vs. line). Meanwhile, Fresno has won its last five outright in 2022 and can sew up a spot in the MW title game with a win this week.
San Jose State @
Utah State

All Utags last year in a 48-17 romp at Logan, stretching USU series win streak to five (all big margins) since 2013.
Colorado @
Washington U

The 20-17 CU win over U-Dub at Boulder last November would turn out to be the final W CU has also won and covered last two meetings. Buffs however 2-8 vs. spread in miserable 2022.
Colorado State @
Air Force

The Falcs have won last the five meetings vs. their upstate foe, covering three of last four. The Rams have covered 4 of last 6 in 2022 but had dropped ten in a row SU and vs. line prior. CSU also 9-1 “under” this season…no surprise with the lowest-scoring offense in the country (under 13 ppg!). The Force has covered 7 of last 11 at Colorado Springs, and 8-3 last eleven laying double digits. Falcs also “under” four of last five in 2022. (This looks like an “under” situation!)

Long history in this LA rivalry that began way back in 1929 when SC won 756-0. After another 52-0 win the following year, it was decided to stop the series until the Bruins could get more competitive, which they did by 1936 and a 7-7 tie that confirmed the series was “on” and a staple for LA area fans. During the WW2 years the teams would play twice per season. The acknowledged heyday of the series came in the late 60s, however, when Tommy Prothro arrived at UCLA from Oregon State and elevated the match of wits vs. SC;s John McKay to chess-master levels. Most recall the 1967 showdown for number one in the nation with the top Heisman contenders (UCLA”s Gary Beban and SC’s OJ Simpson); in a classic game the Trojans would win 21-20 thanks to Simpson’s 64-yard TD gallop with 10 minutes to play and negating a brilliant show by Beban, who passed for 301 yards in defeat despite battling badly injured ribs. We will never know how the Bruins would have reacted the next week vs. a punishing Syracuse at the Coliseum had they beaten the trojans; instead, they were manhandled by the then-called Orangemen, 32-14, though Beban would narrowly win the Heisman over Simpson (who would claim the prize the next year). Prothro-McKay also featured a pair of dramatic Beban TD passes in last four minutes to reverse the scoreline and give the bruins a stirring 20-16 win and the Rose Bowl bid, and backup QB Norm Dow, in for an injured Beban, leading a 14-7 UCLA upset in 1966. By us, however, the game of the series came in 1969, when UCLA and USC both entered at 8-0-1 (better than the comparable ’67 records) and win by the Trojans 14-12 inside of the last 2 minutes on a rainbow TD pass from soph QB Jimmy Jones to WR Sam Dickerson, who ran just inside the end line across the end zone to make a spectacular diving catch for the winning TD in a 14-12 classic. To recent years, and Chip Kelly 2-2 SU and vs. spread vs. SC while with Bruins. Last four in this series also way “over” (62-33 UCLA LY), with the last three landing on 87, 81, and 95 points!
Syracuse @
Wake Forest

Recent series trends favor the home team, which has covered the last three meetings. Both cooling down lately, Wake no wins or corers last three this season, Cuse 0-4 SU and 1-3 vs. line last four after getting mauled by Florida State last week.
Oklahoma State @

We’ll see about the future of the colorful “Bedlam!” rivalry that is due to go on hiatus when the Sooners make their move into the SEC, likely by 2025. OU is 6-1 SU last seven in Bedlam, but hasn’t covered last four at Norman this season and just 1-6 vs. spread last seven in 2022. Note Mike Gundy’s OSU 7-2-1 vs. spread last ten at Stillwater.
Mississippi @

Sam Pittman has covered in both of his tries at Arkansas vs. Ole Miss, including a memorable game in 2020 when his (and Barry Odom’s) defense would pick off six passes in a 33-21 upset of the Rebs. Last year the Hogs got another spared cover but not quite the win, though they came close. Very close, scoring a TD on a 9-yard pass from KJ Jefferson to Warren Thompson on the final paly of regulation time to cut th score to 52-51. Wanting to go for the win right there, Jefferson’s pass was broken up and Ole Miss hung on 52-51. Ole Miss had scored what turned out to be its winning TD with just 1:07 to play.
Texas Tech @
Iowa State

Things started going sideways for the Cyclones last November 13 when stunned by the 12-point dog Red Raiders in Lubbock, 41-38. it was Tech’s high-water mark under interim Sonny Cumbie, who had earlier been promoted to replace the dismissed Matt Wells, and this result might have helped Cumbie land the La Tech job for 2022. It was a big game for the Red Raiders’ then-0frosh QB Donovan Smith, who passed for 322 yards and 3 TDs and led a last-second drive to give PK Jonathan Garibay a shot at a king-sized 62-yard field goal, which he made on the final play! Matt Campbell had won and covered five straight vs. Red Raiders prior to that upset loss at Lubbock.
Tennessee U @
South Carolina

Vols have won last three in series, 2-0-1 vs. line in those. Last year’s matchup in Knoxville was a quick TKO for the Vols, who roared to a 28-0 lead after the first quarter 9with three TDP by QB Hendon hooker in the first 15 minutes) and 38-7 by halftime in an eventual 45-20 cruise last October 9 at Neyland Stadium. UT 8-2 vs. spread this term, while Gamecocks not making much progress for Shane Beamer (6-8 as dog since last season).
Boise State @

Wyo not winning in this matchup lately but Craig Bohl has nonetheless covered the last three vs. Boise without any outright Ws. Cowboys “under” last three this season after last week’s border war grinder vs. Colorado State and this Mountain West series is “under” 6-1 the last seven meetings.
Stanford @

Specifics of this year’s Big Game not terribly interesting, with bowl non-eligible after difficult seasons. Stanford is also continuing its numbing nosedive under David James, failing to win or cover the last four this season and now on a debilitating 2-15 slump against the spread since early last season. Cal is 2-1 SU, 3-0 vs. line last three in series. But it’s a sentimental day on Saturday in Strawberry Canyon as it marks the 40th anniversary of “The Play” which has been replayed thousands of times, the end-of-game kickoff return lateral-upon-lateral that finally resulted in DB Kevin Moen carrying the baton, er football, the last leg while Stanford band members were on the field thinking the game had ended, and running over a trombone player in the end zone when scoring the winning TD in the 25-20 classic. It was the biggest win of the Joe Kapp era at Cal ( close second would be an emotional 17-11 win in 1986 after Kapp had been notified of his pending dismissal), and denied Stanford, with John Elway, a chance to play in the Peach Bowl that year as the Tree fell to 5-6. This year also marks the final big Game for Cal play-by-play announcer Joe Starkey, who gained broadcast immortality with his description of The paly that remains a good listen to this day. Starkey’s first season as Cal play-by-play man was in 1975 and the memorable Joe Roth-Chuck Muncie year in Berkeley when the Golden Bears would tie UCLA for the Pac-10 crown but lose the Rose Bowl big due to a 28-14 late-October loss to the Bruins at the LA Coliseum.
Georgia Tech @
North Carolina

Relatively sure that the tar Heels haven’t forgotten the 45-22 loss last season to a 14-point dog Yellow Jackets side in a game played at the Falcons’ Mercedes Benz Stadium. Tech having bad season but has actually covered 3 of 4 on road. Jackets also on 9-2 “over” run since late last season after another “over” vs. Miami last week. Note that UNC has covered last three vs. ACC foes at Chapel Hill.
Arkansas St @
Texas State

Some conflicting trends here, as the Bobcats have won and covered a pair of 2-point thrillers the past two seasons, including a 24-22 nailbiter at Jonesboro to close the 2021 campaign. Now, Butch Jones’ Red Wolves have dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line in 2022 after failing to cover in close win over UMass last week, all after covering first five from gate this season. Ark State, however, is 6-1 vs. spread last seven on road.
Cincinnati U @

Interesting here, as the Bearcats are 1-8-1 vs. the line their last ten away from Nippert Stadium, while the Owls have been hooting lately for new HC Stan Drayton, covering seven of their last nine games.
Iowa @
Minnesota U

“Floyd of Rosedale” (Floyd’s statue is of a pig!) is at stake here and the Hawkeyes have won and covered last three meetings. Iowa 4-1 vs. spread last five away in reg season, has won and covered three straight impressively, and is also on 8-3 “under” run.
Penn State @

Some interesting background with these two schools, as regional sources long ago told us that none other than Joe Paterno was intrigued by the Rutgers job and the potential it offered after the Scarlet Knights initially moved into the old Giants Stadium at the Meadowlands in the late 70s. Of course, jersey was a Paterno recruiting hotbed, and sources told us he at least thought about a possible move before instead recommending one of his assistants, Dick Anderson, for the job in 1984, one in which Anderson kept for six seasons. Anderson was one of the few Paterno aides who ever went out on their own as a head coach (Galen Hall the other notable aide who took the head job at Florida following the unraveling of the Charley Pell regime in the early 80s). To the present, and James Franklin has won and covered last two meetings, and Scarlet Knights haven’t beaten Nittany Lions in eight tries since joining Big 10. All eight of those matchups have also landed on the “under” side. Franklin has won and covered last four this season after the rout of Maryland last week.
Ohio State @

The last two meetings have been lopsided uckeye routs (66-17 LY, 73-14 in 2019!). Terps now 2-19 vs. spread in second half of reg seasons under Mike Locksley (adjusted for Covid 2020). Maryland also no covers last five in 2022.
Georgia @

Surprisingly, the Wildcats have covered last three meetings, each of those “under” as well. Though they waited as long as they could before their backers could cash any tickets last October 16, with UK scoring a TD with 4 seconds left on a short Will Levis to Wan’Dale Robinson pass to account for the final 30-13 margin…and inside of the 21 1/2-point spread! After last Saturday’s win at Mississippi State, note Dawgs 10-2 vs. spread away from Athens since LY, “under” 9-3 since late 2021.
Texas @

Recurring banana peels in this series for Texas, which has failed to cover the last five vs. KU and even lost outright twice as a heavy favorite in that span of games. Last November was particularly galling as Texas was a 31-point favorite at home but once again could not shake the Jayhawks, who hung around doggedly, forced OT, then bravely went for a 2-point conversion to win the game after matching the Horns’ TD in OT, with Jalon Daniels tossing the PAT to Jared Casey (amid much difficulty) to shock Texas. That also snapped a 56-game KU road losing streak in the Big 12 that had stretched all of the way back to 2008!
NC State @

NC State won and covered this matchup last season 28-13 at Raleigh, but that was with now-injured QB Devin Leary passing for 317 yards. Wolfpack 0-3 vs. spread away this season and 1-6 vs. line last seven after shock loss to BC last week. Meanwhile, the ‘Ville was working on four covers in a row until last week’s loss at Clemson, but still own four straight spread wins at home.
Akron @
Buffalo U

All Bulls lately in this series, winning and covering last four meetings handily, including last year’s 45-10 romp on the road at InfoCision Stadium in the Rubber City. After wins and covers in five straight this season, UB has now lost and failed to cover two in a row. Joe Moorhead is 1-9 this season but has posted serviceable 5-5 spread mark.
Florida Atlantic @
Middle Tenn St

Note that Lane Kiffin was 2-1 SU and vs. line vs. Blue Raiders when he was with the Owls from 2017-19, but Willie Taggart lost and failed to cover vs. MTSU last season. Even after last week’s annual romp past FIU in the Shula Bowl, Taggart 3-7 vs. spread last ten as visitor, FAU also “under” 22-9 with Taggart since 2020.
Boston College @
Notre Dame

Recent history is advantage Notre Dame, as the Irish have won last eight meetings (last ND loss 2008), covering last three. Included in that span was a game at Fenway Park vs. BC in 2015. Though the result that still gnaws at Domers was in 1993, when Lou Holtz’s ND had assumed the top spot in the polls with a memorable 31-24 win over Charlie Ward and Florida State the previous week. Tom Coughlin’s Eagles, however, would score a stunning 41-39 upset on David Gordon’s 41-yard field goal on the last play of the game marked by a superb effort from BC QB Glenn Foley, who passed for 315 yards and 4 TDs. Notre Dame fell to fifth in the polls afterward and was never able to make up the ground in the rankings despite winning out and beating RC Slocum’s Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl; in the end, Bobby Bowden’s FSU finished atop the polls even with the November loss at South Bend, with Holtz settling for the runner-up spot.
Kansas State @
West Virginia

Recent edge to West Virginia, as Neal Brown 2-1 SU and vs. line against Chris Klieman past three seasons, and Mounties have won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings vs. the Wildcats.
Houston U @
East Carolina

If getting points, note Pirates 9-2 last ten as dog since early 2021, while Cougars “over” 9-1 in 2022 after another shootout last week (43-36 vs. Temple).
Washington State @
Arizona U

There has been five straight “over” results in one of the highest-scoring rivalries in the nation, with the recent scorelines such as 44-18, 38-34, 69-28, 58-37, and 69-7 the last five meetings! Cougs have won and covered last two and four of last five clashes. Note that Wildcat QB Jayden de Laura spent the past two season as the Cougars’ starting QB beofre his offseason transfer to Tucson.
Tex San Antonio @

Edge Roadrunners lately in this CUSA matchup, winning the last six six meetings, covering last four and five of last six. Note Rice “over’ 8-2 this season even after falling just short of another “over” against WKU last week.
Northwestern @

Road team has covered last three meetings. Cats 3-2 vs. spread away this season, but some negative numbers to report here as NU just 3-7 overall vs. number (1-9 SU, no wins since Week Zero opener in Dublin vs. Nebraska). Purdue 0-4 vs. spread at Ross-Ade vs. FBS-level foes this season.
Illinois @

These teams live in different halves of the big Ten so they don’t meet annually, in fact the last time was 2019. Note Illini and Bret Bielema 6-1 vs. spread last seven on road, 8-4 as dog since LY, also “under” 14-6, though off of back-to-back losses at home. Meanwhile Jim Harbaugh 9-3-2 vs. spread at Ann Arbor since lY, also “under” 8-2 since late 2021.
Indiana @
Michigan State

Note the road team has covered last four in series (Spartans 3-1 SU in those games). Hoosiers however on a desperate 5-18 spread skid, including 1-10 vs. spread last ten away from Bloomington.
Wisconsin @

The “Barry Alvarez game’ as the former Badgers head coach and AD was an alumnus of Nebraska where he played LB for Bob Devaney’s teams in the early 60s. Badgers have won last eight in series though Huskers 3-2 vs. line last five meetings.
Connecticut @

Some illuminatiing trends here. Huskies actually covered this one a year ago despite losing 52-21. Jim Mora has covered seven straight this season, and Huskies also “under” 5-1 last six this season. UConn on 15-5 spread run since early 2021. Army no covers last four hosting FBS-level foes at Michie Stadium.
Duke @
Pittsburgh U

Pitt dominated this series in recent years vs. David Cutcliffe’s Duke, winning the last six outright and covering five of those. Including last year’s 54-29 romp at Durham when Kenny Pickett torched the Blue Devils with 416 YP and 3 TDP and spearheading a big second quarter when the Panthers scored 23 points. No more Cutcliffe at Duke, however, and the Blue Devils are already bowl-eligible for Mike Elko, 7-3 SU and 6-4 vs. line in debut season for Blue Devils.

The Wonder Frogs continue to stay unbeaten for first-year HC Sonny Dykes, who’s also dropped just one spread decision (8-1-1 vs. line). TCU has topped the Bears the past two seasons, including a rousing 30-28 win at Fort Worth last season in the first game after HC Gary Patterson, on the job since 2001, stepped down (or was he pushed out?). Interim Jerry Kill (now at New Mexico State) shepherded TCU during last November.
Virginia Tech @

One of Liberty’s signature wins under Hugh Freeze in its quest for relevance the past couple of years was a wild 38-35 win at Blacksburg on November 7, 2020, when PK Alex Barbir hit a game-winning 51-yard field goal with one second to play. Note the skidding Hokies are on a 6-15 spread skid since early 2021, and 1-4 vs. line away this season. VPI also “under” 15-8 since last season.
Navy @
Central Florida

In the lone meeting between these sides since 2019, the Mids, 15.5-point dogs, scored a rousing 34-30 upset at Annapolis last season, Navy’s first win after an 0-3 start a year ago. Trailing 30-17 into the 4th Q, the Mids would score the game’s final 17 points, the last of those on Isaac Ruosse’s 4-yard run with 3:09 to play. Note Navy has now also covered its last seven away from Annapolis after coming back and making it close last week vs. Notre Dame at Baltimore.
San Diego State @
New Mexico

The connection here is Rocky Long, who served for nine years as HC at San Diego State from 2011-19 nd ten years at New Mexico (1998-2008), plus serving as defensive coordinator at both schools, and his current position now with the Lobos. Rocky also played college FB as a DB at new Mexico and for a short while had a pro career in the old WFL with the infamous Detroit Wheels. The Aztecs won and covered 31-7 in Carson LY also an “under” result. SDSU has covered last two on road this season, also “under” 6-4 in 2022. Lobos no covers last five this season, no covers last six vs. MW at Albuquerque
South Florida @

Neither of these teams will be “bowling” this season. Series-wise, Golden Hurricane has won and covered three of last four meetings (didn’t cover in 2021, however). Bulls actually 3-2 vs. spread away (though 0-4 at home vs. points) in what has been a bad season with Jeff Scott just dismissed last week. USF also “over” 7-3 in 2022. Meanwhile, Tulsa now working on five straight spread Ls after Memphis loss, also 1-4 as chalk this season.

Note that Tulane HC Willie Fritz is 0-6 SU vs. SMU, Ponies on 7-game SU series win streak. The Greenies had won and covered last five and 8 of 9 this season were on a 12-2 spread uptick since late 2021 before losing at home to Gus Malzahn and UCF last week. SMU has covered last four this season, and big “overs” last two years in series.
Western Michigan @
Central Michigan

Not much home edge lately in this directional-Michigan special, with the visiting team covering the last TEN (!) Broncos-Chippewas battles!
Eastern Michigan @
Kent State

This spread is right up the alley for EMU, as the Eagles are back in their preferred MAC road dog role, standing a hard-to-believe 19-1-1 vs. the line their last 21! Included are outright wins as road dog in two earlier tries this season at WMU and Ball State.
Ohio @
Ball State

There teams haven’t met since 2019. But the current news in the MAC is to watch the Bobcats, who are still on the upswing with SU wins in last five and covers last six this season after Miami-O win last week.
Bowling Green @

Local MAC rivals sitting less than 25 miles apart in Northwest Ohio, where the BGSU campus and its Dix Stadium sit in clear view off of I-75. But Toledo has routed the Falcons the past two years by 49-17 & 62-24 scores after enduring a stunning upset at hands of BGSU in 2019, when the 26 1/2-point underdog Falcs marched into Dix and walked out a 20-7 winner.


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