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Archived: Can the Raiders +4 Upset the Rams Monday Night?


Sep 09, 2018 EST


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The NFL opens the 2018 regular season with its annual Monday Night Football doubleheader, and the late game will feature a high profile return. The Oakland Raiders host the Los Angeles Rams in Jon Gruden’s first game as a head coach since 2008. It marks his first game coaching the Raiders since a 2002 playoff appearance.

Where is the money?

It is on the Rams by a big margin. William Hill’s 100+ sportsbooks had 84 percent of money coming in on the Rams. As of Friday 63 percent of the money at online sportsbooks are on the Rams. The Raiders traded Khalil Mack on cutdown day, and the Raiders’ offseason as a whole has been viewed as among the worst in the NFL.

The Westgate SuperBook had one of the first lines for this game and opened the Rams as 1.5 point favorites. You could get this as low as a pick ‘em in April, but the line has changed with bettors hitting the Rams heavily. Sportsbooks are sitting at either four points or 4.5 points. The point total is set at 49.5.

This game features resolution for a pair for a pair of players given the franchise tag. The Rams agreed to terms making Aaron Donald the highest paid defensive player in the league. Shortly after that, the Raiders traded their best player, star edge rusher Khalil Mack, to the Chicago Bears, where he supplanted Donald as the highest paid defensive player in the league. A brief surge in betting moved the line up to as high as 5.5 points, but it returned to four or 4.5 points across sportsbooks.

The Rams stumbled to close the season, dropping four of five against the spread. It is worth noting, however, they went 5-3 ATS in their eight road games last season. Oakland finished poorly as well, going 1-3-1 ATS in their final five games. They were 3-3-1 ATS at home (they gave up their home game with the New England Patriots for a London game).

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