Baker Mayfield is coming off a concerning four-interception game against the Packers, only his second multi-INT tally of the season. However, both of those have come in the last month, raising some concern heading into a matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that’s struggled this season, but that’s still been solid against the pass when Joe Haden has been healthy. The Steelers have been particularly stingy against air attacks at home, allowing just 208.6 passing yards per contest in that split. Mayfield also has a spotty track record against the Steelers thus far in his career, completing just 59.1 percent of his passes, averaging 184.8 pass yards per contest and mustering a so-so 7:4 TD:INT on his way to a 2-4 record versus Pittsburgh. Also troublesome for Mayfield is the matchup between his offensive line and the Steelers’ notorious pass rush – Cleveland has allowed 39 sacks, while Mike Tomlin’s club has accrued 41.
Fortunately for the battered Browns signal-caller, his head coach may very well be calling a healthy dose of running plays. Not only is Cleveland already prone to do so – the Browns rank No. 2 in Rush Offense DVOA, No. 1 in adjusted line yards facilitated and No. 1 in yards per rush – but the Steelers have also alarmingly turned into one of the worst run defenses in the league this season in the absences of Stephon Tuitt and Tyson Alualu. Pittsburgh ranks No. 30 in Rush Defense DVOA and allows an NFL-high 142.7 rushing yards per contest. While the Steelers did do a solid job on Chubb in the first meeting, Kareem Hunt could well suit up in this game if he can overcome his ankle injury after missing the first meeting while on injured reserve.
The Steelers’ pedestrian passing game has a mixed outlook against the Cleveland’s secondary. While the Browns have been impressive overall while allowing just 215.1 passing yards per contest, they’ve been much more generous on the road (254.7 PYPG allowed) than at home (180.5 PYPG surrendered).
Pittsburgh has given up 35 sacks and Cleveland has tallied 37, however, so pass protection could certainly be an issue. Nevertheless, the Browns are only ranked No. 22 in blitz rate, which could help up the chances of Big Ben staying upright. Another encouraging metric for the Steelers is the 67.0 percent completion rate and 10.6 yards per completion Cleveland gives up on the road.
Najee Harris has logged a massive workload as a rookie while filling a true workhorse role, but unfortunately for the talented Alabama alum, he’s had to fight for every yard he’s gotten on the ground. Pittsburgh’s offensive line ranks No. 28 in adjusted line yards per carry facilitated and Harris is averaging a meager 3.7 yards per carry. The Browns check in with just a No. 18 ranking in Rush Defense DVOA and Run Stop Win Rate while yielding 110.9 rushing yards per contest, so the matchup is far from a prohibitive one if Tomlin opts to bang Harris into the line with his typical frequency.
The game will mark the 141st meeting in a series the Steelers lead by a 78-61-1 margin. The most recent game between the teams unfolded in Week 8 this season, a 15-10 road win for Pittsburgh.
In that game, Roethlisberger threw for 266 yards with one touchdown, while Najee Harris collected 91 rushing yards and a touchdown and Diontae Johnson led all pass catchers with a 6-98-line on 13 targets. For the Browns, Mayfield threw for 225 yards, while Nick Chubb paced the ground attack with 61 yards on 16 carries.