The Big 12 has made four appearances in the College Football Playoff and is still looking for its first win as Oklahoma is 0-4. The Sooners represent the best chance once again for a victory as we enter the 2021 season. Most sportsbooks have Iowa State right behind them in the futures market with Texas and Oklahoma State rounding out the top four.
As we return to normal in college football, it’s time to dissect the season win totals for every team in college football. This article will be the first of many to provide my opinion on the posted total and if there’s any value in either direction. Sometimes the number is just right and I’ll say so. We’ve got full 12-game slates including non-conference contests that we didn’t see last year.
Baylor (Over 5.5 +110…Under 5.5 -139)
Preseason Big 12 Poll Rank: 8th
Non-Conference Games: at Texas State, Texas Southern, BYU
Schedule Notes: The Bears get Iowa State and Oklahoma at home as part of a stretch where they leave Waco twice from Sept. 25-Nov. 13.
QB Battle: Junior Gerry Bohanon vs. sophomore Jacob Zeno vs. freshmen Blake Shapen and Kyron Drones
Roster Notes: Former BYU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes has some work to do with quarterback Charlie Brewer transferring to Utah. His departure leaves the team looking for a new signal-caller with potentially four options. Whoever wins the job will have a trifecta of awesome WRs and an offensive line infused with transfer talent. The portal also was kind to the Bears’ defense, adding former LSU tackle Siaki Ika’s size (6-4, 250) to their front. The secondary returns intact while the linebacking corps must overcome the loss of William Bradley-King. Improvement is coming for Baylor in head coach Dave Aranda’s second season.
Prediction: Slight lean to the over because of the price. If Baylor can find a quarterback, six or seven wins are highly attainable. The Bears dealt with multiple COVID-related interruptions last year on their way to finishing 2-7 with three of those losses coming by just one score.
Iowa State (Over 9.5 +110…Under 9.5 -139)
Preseason Big 12 Poll Rank: 2nd
Non-Conference Games: Northern Iowa, Iowa, at UNLV
Schedule Notes: After two straight at home to open up the slate, six of Iowa State’s next nine contests are on the road including a tilt in Oklahoma. Beware of the Nov. 13 game at Texas Tech sandwiched in between a home contest against Texas and the showdown in Norman with Sooners.
QB: Brock Purdy
Roster Notes: Nearly everyone (19 of 22 starters) is back with Purdy and Breece Hall leading the way on offense. Purdy has security blankets in place in senior tight ends Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen. Seven offensive linemen with 93 combined starts will block for all this talent. The reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year is back in linebacker Mike Rose as well as safety Greg Eisworth II. Both are part of an experienced defense returning that must deal with high expectations. There are no excuses for Matt Campbell’s Cyclones after a Fiesta Bowl win last season.
Prediction: Lean to the over especially at +110. There aren’t a ton of toss-up games on this slate.
Kansas (Over 1 -195…Under 1 +150)
Preseason Big 12 Poll Rank: 10th
Non-Conference Games: South Dakota, at Coastal Carolina, at Duke
Schedule Notes: FCS South Dakota represents the best chance for a win this season and rarely are there easy wins against teams from the Missouri Valley Football Conference. The Jayhawks will likely go winless in the Big 12 again with home games against Baylor and Kansas State representing the “best” chances for a victory.
QB Battle: North Texas transfer Jason Bean vs. sophomore Jalon Daniels vs. senior Miles Kendrick
Roster Notes: Kansas’ defense returns the majority of its starters and features a pretty solid secondary. The problem is that the front seven isn’t very strong, which puts even more pressure on the back end. RB Pooka Williams and WR Andrew Parchment are gone, but there is some talent at wide receiver. Former Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold was a great hire for the program but he’s got a massive rebuilding job ahead of him.
Prediction: No play here as I see one win and I’m certainly not taking the over at that price.
Kansas State (Over 5.5 -139…Under 5.5 +110)
Preseason Big 12 Poll Rank: 7th
Non-Conference Games: Stanford (Arlington, Texas), Southern Illinois, Nevada
Schedule Notes: The Wildcats have just two road games through October with the last two coming at Kansas and Texas. KSU also hosts Oklahoma and Iowa State with a bye week in between both matchups.
QB: Skylar Thompson
Roster Notes: Thompson will need more from players not named Deuce Vaughn, the Wildcats’ leading rusher and receiver last season. We’ll see what Illinois transfer Daniel Imatorbhebhe can bring at tight end as he tries to replace Briley Moore, who had 22 receptions and three touchdowns. I don’t know what to make of KSU’s defense with Wyatt Hubert and Elijah Sullivan leaving, but there’s an infusion of talent from the transfer portal that should hopefully improve things on this side of the ball.