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Archived: Bettors cashing in on Pittsburgh / St Thomas

Feb 23, 2023 EST

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Back on Nov. 7, Pittsburgh tipped off its season with an 80-58 thumping of Tennessee-Martin, easily covering as an 8.5-point home favorite.

From there, however, the Panthers dropped three of four games and went 0-3-1 ATS.

Jump ahead to Tuesday night, Pitt outlasted ACC foe Georgia Tech 76-68, but fell short as an 11.5-point home favorite. It was the team’s second straight non-cover after Saturday’s 79-72 loss at Virginia Tech as a 5.5-point underdog.

But in between that early-season 0-3-1 ATS funk and Saturday’s near-miss at Va-Tech? The Panthers were a cash cow, going 18-3 ATS.

That sizzling run is why Pitt (19-8-1 ATS) is sitting atop college basketball’s point-spread standings. But the Panthers aren’t alone in the ATS catbird’s seat, as a little-known low-major from Minnesota has been just as profitable.

And both squads have several teams nipping at their heels.

With the first conference tournaments set to tip off in less than a week, here’s a look at some intriguing point-spread and over/under trends among this year’s 363 Division I squads.

College basketball betting trends: Nothing but net (profits)

A few fun facts about the University of St. Thomas: The school is based in St. Paul, Minnesota; its athletics history dates back to 1904; its 22 varsity teams currently compete in the Summit League; and the school has one of the goofiest nicknames in all of college sports — the Tommies.

One more thing about St. Thomas: It has made a boatload of money this season for astute college basketball bettors.

At 19-8 ATS, the Tommies join Pitt as the current point-spread kings of college basketball. In fact, the Tommies take a five-game spread-covering streak into Thursday’s game at North Dakota State.

St. Thomas and Pitt are the only Division I squads that are 11 games over .500 from an ATS perspective. However, several other teams are knocking on their door.

Texas A&M and Marquette (both 19-9 ATS), Cal State Fullerton and Nevada (both 18-8-1), and Utah Valley (17-7) are all 10 games clear of the .500 mark.

What about the best spread-covering teams at home and on the road? Well, it’s back to St. Thomas and Pitt, respectively.

The Tommies have been nearly perfect for bettors when playing in their gym, going 13-1 ATS at home (as opposed to 6-7 ATS elsewhere).

The next-best moneymakers at home: Bradley and Liberty (both 12-2 ATS), Kansas State (14-5), Cincinnati (13-4) and Nevada (11-2-1).

When it comes to road/neutral-site contests, Wichita State owns the best ATS winning percentage at 8-0-1, with South Florida (9-1) and Pitt (9-1-1) right behind.

Other top road warriors for bettors include Florida A&M and Radford (both 12-5), Northwestern State (11-4) and Miami, Fla. (9-2).

College basketball betting trends: Nothing golden about the Hurricane

College hoops bettors who have had the foresight to wager against Tulsa this season probably are relaxing on a tropical island right now.

Because the Golden Hurricane haven’t just been dreadful on the basketball court, they’ve been a disaster on the wagering front. We’re talking 5-22 both SU and ATS.

And that includes Tuesday’s 62-60 loss to East Carolina as a 3.5-point home underdog, which ended Tulsa’s eight-game spread-covering drought.

It was just the fourth ATS triumph for the Hurricane in 16 home games. On the road? They’re a putrid 1-10 ATS.

To put Tulsa’s horrendous 18.5% spread-covering percentage into real-money terms, if you wagered $110 against the Golden Hurricane in all 27 of their games, you would be $1,650 richer than you were in early November.

Right behind Tulsa in the ATS basement are Georgia State (6-17-2 ATS), Green Bay (8-21) and three name-brand programs, all at 8-19 ATS: North Carolina, Notre Dame and Ohio State.

Then there’s the 2022 NCAA Tournament darling, St. Peter’s.

A year after fattening the wallets of bettors by becoming the first team in history to reach the Elite Eight as a No. 15 seed, the Peacocks are just 7-14 ATS.

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College basketball betting trends: ‘Over’ here, ‘Under’ there

Not only has South Florida been crushing it for bettors when hitting the road, it has delivered big time for those who like to wager on high-scoring games.

Since the Under cashed in three of their first four contests, the Bulls have gone 19-4 to the Over. That 20-7 Over/Under mark is tied with UAB for tops in the nation.

That duo is followed by Youngstown State (20-8), Grand Canyon (19-6), Pepperdine (19-7), Denver (19-8-1), Wake Forest (19-8), and West Virginia and SMU (both 19-9).

What about the low side of things? Three of the six most bankable Under teams in Division I all hail from the Northeast Conference: Stonehill (21-8 to the Under), St. Francis-Brooklyn (18-6-1) and Merrimack (19-8).

Additionally, Oregon State (19-7-1), Wagner (17-6) and St. Peter’s (16-5) have all seen the Under hit in at least 73% of their games.

The top Over teams at home: Grand Canyon (13-2), UNLV (12-5), and Washington, West Virginia, Air Force and Xavier (all 12-6).

The top Under teams at home: Wagner (9-0), Oregon State (11-2-1), Seattle (10-2) and Harvard (9-2).

The most profitable Over teams on the road: Youngstown State (13-2), Idaho State (13-3), Albany (13-4) and Southern Indiana (12-3).

The most profitable Under teams on the road: Kent State 13-2, Georgia Tech and St. Francis-Brooklyn (both 10-2), and Utah and Arkansas State (both 9-2).

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