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Belmont Stakes Betting Guide


May 27, 2021 EST


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The Belmont Stakes is the third and final leg of the American Triple Crown. The 2021 race takes place the first Saturday in June at Belmont Park. So make sure to clear June 5 on your calendar.

The Belmont Stakes returns to it’s traditional 1 1/2 mile distance this year, and the New York Racing Association (NYRA) announced that the 153rd running of the Belmont Stakes will headline a blockbuster Belmont Stakes Day card that includes nine graded stakes with eight Grade I races.

The big storyline entering this year’s Belmont Stakes centers around trainer Bob Baffert. Baffert has been suspended by New York Racing officials and will not be allowed to enter any of his horses into this year’s Belmont, including Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit.

There will be no Triple Crown winner this year, as Rombauer – at 11/1 odds – won the Preakness Stakes.

HORSES TO WATCH

Rombauer won the Preakness Stakes at 11/1 odds with jockey Flavien Prat aboard. He’s improved his Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) in each of his last five races including 103 when winning the 1 3/16 mile Preakness Stakes from off the pace by 3 ½ lengths, and 100 when a distant third in the Blue Grass behind Essential Quality. He’s moved to No. 1 in the NTRA Top 3-year-old Thoroughbred Poll ahead of Essential Quality and Mandaloun. Now the question arises about distance and the 1 ½ mile Belmont Stakes. Rombauer has shown versatility racing on dirt, turf and synthetic, which is passed down through his versatile pedigree and sire. But his pedigree profile tends to pass along more speed than stamina. Trainer Mike McCarthy won his first American Classic in the Preakness, and the former assistant to trainer Todd Pletcher will turn to three-time Belmont Stakes-winning jockey John Velazquez to ride Rombauer after Flavien Prat chose to ride Hot Rod Charlie.  

Rock Your World is 3-for-4 after winning the 1 1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby wire-to-wire in front of Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit with a 103 ESF. But the supremely talented Rock Your World failing to fire when finishing 17th in the Kentucky Derby, which was won by Medina Spirit. The Candy Ride colt did not race as a 2-year-old after being purchased for $650,000, and trainer John Sadler started Rock Your World on the turf to let him develop. The dark-bay colt has a stamina-oriented dirt pedigree from top to bottom. He has tactical speed and a versatile running style that can handle the longer distances. Jockey Joel Rosario will ride him for the second straight race.

Known Agenda is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won the Belmont Stakes three times, including twice with horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness, like Known Agenda. Pletcher has also had six horses finish second in the Belmont Stakes, and four of those runner-ups also had five weeks from the Derby without a race in between. Known Agenda has great action, and displayed his strong turn of foot around the far turn and through the top of the lane in his impressive off-the-pace Florida Derby win with a strong 112 speed figure. He finished 9th in the Kentucky Derby after getting shuffled way back breaking from the rail. He’s raced three times at 1 1/8 miles and once at 1 ¼ miles, and has a pair of solid works over the Belmont track thus far. Known Agenda is bred beautifully for longer distances as a son of two-time Horse of the Year and Hall of Famer Curlin. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides Known Agenda again.

Hot Rod Charlie has won 2-of-8 starts including a track-record time in the 1 3/16 mile Louisiana Derby. He’s hit the board in all four graded stakes starts since November’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and has repeatedly held his own since adding blinkers in those four stakes starts around two turns. That includes a close third place finish at 5/1 odds in the Kentucky Derby when he produced a career-best 109 speed figure. Hot Rod Charlie is a son of Oxbow, who won the 2013 Preakness and finished second in the Belmont Stakes. He has stamina on his sire’s side, and a speedy female family pedigree from his dam. Hot Rod Charlie will ship in from the West coast and Santa Anita, and Flavien Prat will take the reins again after his solid Derby ride.

More horse profiles to be updated as additional contenders and runners go from possible to probable, like Essential Quality, as Belmont Stakes week approaches.

HORSE RACING WAGERS AND BETS

In addition to the traditional “straight” wagers (Win, Place, Show), fans can also attempt to cash big in the various “exotic” pools. Exacta (first two), Trifecta (first three) and Superfecta (first four) wagering are all offered, and cashing a ticket in any of these pools can produce a bigger payday.

  • Win: Bet on the horse you think you will win the Belmont Stakes.
  • Place: Get paid the place price if your horse finishes first or second.
  • Show: A show bet pays the least, but you win and get paid the show price if your horse finishes first, second or third.
  • Exacta: Predict the first two horses in the correct order.
  • Trifecta: Predict the first three horses in the correct order.
  • Superfecta: Predict the first four horses in the correct order.
  • Super High Five: Predict the first five horses in the correct order.

The Belmont Stakes betting odds are finally determined by the pari-mutuel system at the track which means your potential payout depends on how much money is in the pot overall, divided by how many bets are placed. The odds will fluctuate in the build-up to the race and never more so than in the final few moments before post time.

PICKING A BELMONT STAKES WINNER

In the last 14 non-Triple-Crown editions of the Belmont Stakes, the favorite has won just three times. Afleet Alex (2005) won by 7 lengths, Point Given (2001) by 12 lengths and Tiz The Law by 3 3/4 lengths. Traditionally, long shots have cashed in and have provided some strong payouts in the win and exotic pools.

A FILLY IN THE 2021 BELMONT STAKES?

Trainer Todd Pletcher dropped an intriguing nugget the morning after the Kentucky Derby, involving filly and Kentucky Oaks winner Malathaat. Pletcher was asked about her possibly taking on the boys in the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes on June 5.

“We’re not sure about that one yet,” he said. “She’s a special filly and appears quite capable of running the distance. At some point this year she’s likely to take on the boys, but we’re still not sure where or when that might be.”

In 2007 Pletcher won the Kentucky Oaks with Rags to Riches, before beating future two-time Horse of the Year Curlin in the Belmont Stakes by a head in a classic stretch-run duel. As it turns out, Curlin is the sire of Malathaat.

BELMONT STAKES HISTORY AND RESULTS

Year Winner Odds Time Jockey Trainer
2020 Tiz the Law 4-5 1:46.53 (1 1/8 miles) Manny Franco Barclay Tagg
2019 Sir Winston 10-1 2:28.30 Joel Rosario Mark Casse
2018 Justify 4-5 2:28.18 Mike Smith Bob Baffert
2017 Tapwrit 6-1 2:30.02 Jose Ortiz Todd Pletcher
2016 Creator 15-1 2:28.51 Irad Ortiz, Jr. Steve Asmussen
2015 American Pharoah 3-5 2:26.65 Victor Espinoza Bob Baffert
2014 Tonalisst 12-1 2:28.52 Joel Rosario Chris Clement
2013 Palace Malice 13-1 2:30.70 Mike Smith Todd Pletcher
2012 Union Rags 3-1 2:30.42 John Velazquez Michael Matz
2011 Ruler on Ice 24-1 2:30.88 Jose Valdivia, Jr. Kelly Breen
2010 Drosselmeyer 13-1 2:31.57 Mike Smith Bill Mott
2009 Summer Bird 12-1 2:27.54 Kent Desormeaux Tim Ice
2008 Da’ Tara 38-1 2:29.65 Alan Garcia Nick Zito
2007 Rags to Riches (f) 4-1 2:28.74 John Velazquez Todd Pletcher
2006 Jazil 6-1 2:27.86 Fernando Jara Kiaran McLaughlin
2005 Afleet Alex 6-5 2:28.60 Jeremy Ros Tim Ritchey
2004 Birdstone 3-1 2:27.40 Edgar Prado Nick Zito
2003 Empire Maker 2-1 2:28.20 Jerry Bailey Robert Frankel
2002 Sarava 70-1 2:29.60 Edgar Prado Ken McPeak
2001 Point Given 7-5 2:26.40 Gary Stevens Bob Baffert
2000 Commendable 18-1 2:30.00 Pat Day D. Wayne Lukas

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