AFC East Prediction and Picks

The AFC East will be among the most hotly contested divisions in the NFL in 2023, even though the Buffalo Bills have claimed the crown in each of the last three seasons. However, the rest of the division has stepped up, most notably with Aaron Rodgers and Jalen Ramsey coming to town.

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are contenders so long as Josh Allen’s right arm can keep slinging the ball. With Stefon Diggs on the other end to catch it, it’s safe to say that Buffalo should remain favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Still, it’s tough to shake how embarrassing the team’s playoff loss was last season. The Cincinnati Bengals annihilated the reigning division champs to the tune of 27 points, largely due to the defense allowing 412 points and 30 first downs.

On the bright side, Matt Milano remains an intimidating presence after tallying 11 passes defended plus 12 tackles-for-a-loss, both career highs. The Bills also return a fully healthy Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer to its safety room, talented players who missed 17 combined games last season. They get back depth piece Damar Hamlin, who thankfully recovered from his scary injury in January and now leads Comeback Player of the Year odds.

However, Buffalo still lacks a capable cornerback next to Tre’Davious White or a reliable wide receiver opposite Diggs. There are key holes in the roster that could cause the Bills to falter in the shadow of their 13-win season a year prior.

With a good coach in Sean McDermott and a star quarterback in Allen, the Bills will do well. Expect the Bills to cover the win line, but at -140 on most books, it’s likely not worth the odds. If you do want the Bills to win the division, you can get them at a slight boost at +130 on PointsBet or Bet365 compared to +115 on DraftKings.

The Bills possess the seventh-hardest schedule in the NFL for 2023, which is still the best in the division.

• Win line: 10.5
• Pick: Over
• Prediction: 11-6

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins scrapped their way to the playoffs in 2022, earning a Wild Card spot with nine wins. But Tua Tagovailoa’s numerous concussions, causing him to miss four games, was easily the story of Miami’s season.

If he can avoid serious injury, he can continue to build on what was a strong first season under head coach Mike McDaniel. Only Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes posted better QBRs than Tagovailoa in 2022.

The Alabama signal-caller is often slighted across the sports world for his deep accuracy, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. He topped the league in both yards-per-attempt (8.7) and deep-ball accuracy, which measures a quarterback’s completion percentage on throws beyond 20 yards.

He wasn’t perfect, with multiple near-interceptions that could’ve added to his eight-interception total. With a second year in McDaniel’s system and the return of a speedy receiver duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, however, Tagovailoa can clean up those errors.

He may even receive some additional help on the defensive side of the ball. The team traded for Jalen Ramsey, who should help fellow cornerback Xavien Howard solidify 2022’s fifth-worst passing defense.

Add in star Christian Wilkins and a two-time Pro Bowler in Bradley Chubb, and there’s a contender flowing through the Miami waters. The Heat already shocked the NBA, and the Florida Panthers blew up the best. The Dolphins will continue the state’s winning ways in Vice City.

At +300 on most books, the Dolphins are worth a shot at the division title. At the very least, the over on the 9.5-win line at +130 is a strong bet to make.

The Dolphins do have the second-hardest schedule for 2023.

• Win line: 9.5
• Pick: Over
• Prediction: 12-5

New England Patriots

The Patriots haven’t finished last within their division under Bill Belichick since the coach’s first season in New England back in 2000.

But time has caught up. The Patriots have missed the playoffs in two of the last three seasons and with the rest of the AFC East improving alongside a strong conference, it’s hard to see the Patriots as anything other than a spoiler for other teams.

New England finished with eight wins last season and doesn’t look all that different a year later. Jakobi Meyers has been replaced with another slot receiver in Juju Smith-Schuster. Newly signed tight end Mike Gesicki is coming off a near career-low 362 receiving yards after flaming out in Miami.

Meanwhile, Mac Jones looks just as much a question mark as the day Roger Goodell called his name on draft night in 2021. The quarterback ranked 28th in QBR and a pitiful 66th in EPA, otherwise known as expected points added. It measures plays that increase or decrease a team’s chance of scoring. With average — at-best — weapons around Jones it’s hard to imagine a meaningful step up in a tough division.

Defensively the Patriots will likely be stout, thanks in part to Belichick. The secondary is remarkably deep, and Matt Judon remains one of the best, albeit streaky, pass-rushers in the league.

Still, the team will struggle to reach its win total let alone sniff a division title. Betting against the Patriot Way doesn’t always end well, but it’s the right route for bettors.

The Patriots are tied with the third-hardest schedule for 2023.

• Win line: 7.5
• Pick: Under
• Prediction: 7-10

New York Jets

The Jets have been the butt of most jokes for the last two decades. But now the Jets have a good shot at joining the front of the pack after adding the leader of it — Aaron Rodgers.

It’s hard to describe how bad Zach Wilson has been in New York. With 15 touchdowns to a ridiculous 18 interceptions over just 22 starts it’s clear that if Rodgers is just average, the team will see a massive boost.

The Jets saw their playoff hopes dramatically dwindle over the back half of 2022, finishing 7-10 after starting the year 6-3. Still, there are plenty of silver linings.

Then-rookie first-rounder Sauce Gardner was the worthy owner of Defensive Rookie of the Year, the first cornerback to do so since Marshon Lattimore in 2017. Quinnen Williams was dominant, with 12 sacks as an interior defensive lineman which earned him his first Pro Bowl and All-Pro nod.

Others like C.J. Mosley and D.J. Reed contributed their fair share to a defense that ranked fourth in points allowed. That was the franchise’s best finish since 2009.

With all the key pieces set to return — and notable additions added in Rodgers, Allen Lazard, and Mecole Hardman, not to mention the draft — it’s more than fair to expect a substantial improvement in New York.

The Jets have the sixth-hardest schedule in 2023.

• Win line: 9.5
• Pick: Over
• Prediction: 10-7