March Madness Betting Trends:
Best OVER Teams
Nobody wants to bet on an UNDER, especially during the most exciting time in college basketball. So for our first March Madness betting trend, we will look at the best OVER teams in the tournament.
| Team | O/U Record |
|---|---|
| No. 6 Alabama | 21-10-1 |
| No. 12 UAB | 21-11 |
| No. 5 Iowa | 22-12-1 |
| No. 4 Arkansas | 20-13 |
| No. 10 Miami | 20-13 |
| No. 7 Ohio State | 18-12 |
| No. 3 Wisconsin | 18-12-1 |
| No. 1 Arizona | 20-14 |
| No. 10 Davidson | 18-13 |
| No. 11 Michigan | 18-13 |
UAB is the lowest seed listed as a No. 12, and while they won the Conference USA to earn their bid, the Blazers didn’t play – let alone beat – a Top 25-ranked team all season. The only team UAB played all year that made the tournament was San Francisco, who the Blazers lost to. It’s worth taking their great ATS record with a grain of salt as they get ready to face No. 5 Houston in the opening round.
Some top teams like Arizona, Wisconsin, Arkansas and Iowa appear on the list, but Alabama might be the most interesting at the top of the chart. The Crimson Tide ended up as a 6 seed and will play either Rutgers or Notre Dame after the First Four, but we have liked this talented team all year as a sleeper.
Alabama has wins over No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 4 Arkansas, No. 1 Baylor, No. 3 Tennessee and No. 5 Houston this season, but losses to Georgia, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt in the first round of the SEC Tournament have shown their immaturity as a team. Still, they are interesting as a sleeper given their ATS record.
March Madness Betting Trends:
Best UNDER Teams
At the opposite end of the spectrum, the following chart shows the teams that hit the UNDER this season more often than not.
| Team | U/O Record |
|---|---|
| No. 16 Georgia State | 18-8 |
| No. 9 Creighton | 21-11-1 |
| No. 6 Colorado State | 19-10 |
| No. 8 Seton Hall | 20-11 |
| No. 16 Saint Peter’s | 19-11 |
| No. 8 San Diego State | 19-12 |
| No. 16 Norfolk State | 16-11 |
| No. 1 Gonzaga | 17-12 |
| No. 3 Tennessee | 19-14 |
| No. 6 LSU | 19-14 |
It shouldn’t be much of a surprise to see three of the four No. 16 seeds here as teams that clearly don’t have top offenses.
What is interesting is the presence of Gonzaga and Tennessee, two of the tournament’s top teams. Both are great defensively, and perhaps the lines have skewed higher in their games as sportsbooks assume they will blow out their opponents.
Also appearing on this list are four teams who play each other in the first round. Consider the UNDER when betting on Georgia State vs Gonzaga and San Diego State vs Creighton.
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March Madness Betting Trends:
Best ATS Records
If you’re not a fan of betting on totals, no worries, we have March Madness betting trends for spreads as well.
| Team | ATS Record |
|---|---|
| No. 15 Saint Peter’s | 21-9 |
| No. 14 Longwood | 20-9 |
| No. 16 Texas A&M C.C. (First Four) | 20-10 |
| No. 15 Norfolk State | 17-9-1 |
| No. 5 Houston | 22-12 |
| No. 5 Iowa | 22-13 |
| No. 4 Arkansas | 20-12-1 |
| No. 5 Saint Mary’s | 18-11-2 |
| No. 9 TCU | 18-11-3 |
| No. 3 Texas Tech | 21-13 |
March Madness Betting Trends: Worst ATS Records
Now it’s time to look at the best fade teams in the nation.
Pay close attention to the teams on this list as some could be primed for an upset, at least against the spread.
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| Team | ATS Record |
|---|---|
| No. 6 Alabama | 11-21 |
| No. 6 Texas | 12-19-1 |
| No. 3 Purdue | 13-20-1 |
| No. 11 Michigan | 13-18 |
| No. 4 Illinois | 13-18 |
| No. 5 Connecticut | 13-18-1 |
| No. 10 Loyola Chicago | 13-17-1 |
| No. 2 Kentucky | 14-18-1 |
| No. 11 Rutgers (First Four) | 14-17 |
| No. 10 San Francisco | 14-17 |