Here are the picks & tips for April 17, 2019:

901/902 NY Mets at Philadelphia (-117, 9)

It all came together for the Phillies yesterday. I talked about Matz as a regression candidate and Pivetta as a guy that wasn’t likely to live up to market expectations. Man, there were some plays I left off the card yesterday. That was the hardest part of yesterday. Writing all that information and figuring out which plays made the cut and which ones didn’t. I do regret not taking Cleveland. Not taking this over. It’s frustrating.

Anyway, Zack Wheeler and Jake Arrieta wrap up the series today. Wheeler got back on track last time out with a solid showing against the Braves over six innings. Wheeler has a 7.47 ERA with a 3.91 FIP and a 4.74 xFIP. His high ERA is a byproduct of a lot of things, chiefly a high walk rate, a .341 BABIP, and a 54.7% LOB%. Wheeler walked seven in his start against the Nationals and only four in his two other starts, so we have to wonder if that walk rate is really as detrimental as it suggests, since it was really a one-game outlier.

Wheeler did go heavier with his slider against the Braves and also saw his velocity average 98 mph. I’m not sure if that’s a hot gun in Atlanta or if the Mets found some sort of mechanical flaw that was holding Wheeler back. I guess we’ll see today if he can sustain his spike in that department.

Because the Phillies walk so much, I’m not going to be on the Mets today, but another good start from Wheeler would swing the pendulum back in his favor following last year’s excellent start.

Arrieta also has one start with a big walk blip. Outside of that, he’s off to a fine start with five runs allowed on 13 hits in 20 innings of work. He’s only struck out 15, but he’s not a big whiff guy anyway. He did strike out seven Marlins last time out, so most lineups are vastly superior to the Marlins, who lead the league in K%.

I’m not really sure what we’ll get from Arrieta today. He’s benefited from a vastly improved infield defense thus far, but there are clear signs of regression with a 90.1% LOB% and a .212 BABIP against.

OTL PICK: UNDER 9

903/904 St. Louis at Milwaukee (-136, 9.5)

Michael Wacha Flacha Flame and Corbin Burnes get ‘er going this afternoon at Miller Park. The Cardinals will enjoy Thursday’s off day and the Brewers will entertain the Dodgers in a rematch of last weekend’s series.

Wacha has been a mess this season. He allowed seven runs on eight hits, including three home runs, in his last start against the Dodgers. At least he only walked one batter! That was big because Wacha had walked 12 batters in his previous two starts. He walked eight against the Padres, struck out seven, and only allowed one run on three hits. Wacha has an 84.8% LOB%, which took a big hit in that start against the Dodgers.

He allowed eight baserunners over six innings in his first start against the Brewers, but the only one that scored came home on a solo homer. We’ll see what he has in store for today. Wacha’s starts are somewhat predictable in that his changeup determines the outcome. If it’s good early on, he can have success. If it’s not, look out.

Corbin Burnes is fascinating. He’s struck out 21 in 14.1 innings, but he’s also already allowed nine home runs out of his 21 hits. He’s given up 16 runs on the season. He literally goes from unhittable to mistake pitch in the blink of an eye. He’s allowed three home runs in every start. He struck out 12 Cardinals in his 2019 debut, but allowed four runs on six hits. He’s only struck out nine of 48 batters since.

That’s a concerning trend in my opinion. Burnes is a guy that hovered around a strikeout per inning in the minors. This home run problem is a new thing, but the more chance she allows teams to put the ball in play and get on base, the more damning his current home run issue is. His command just hasn’t been sharp, as he has a .353 BABIP to go along with the 64.3% HR/FB% and home runs don’t count towards BABIP because they are not balls in play.

I am somewhat interested in the Cardinals today. Like I’ve discussed before, the Cardinals are a really good fastball-hitting lineup. So far, Burnes has thrown 57% four-seamers and about 10% sinkers, so he’s been pumping a lot of fastballs up there. He’s thrown about 23% sliders. His fastball usage was very high in his first start. He’s mixed in a few more splitters in this other two starts, but he didn’t use the pitch at all against the Cardinals. Woodruff threw a lot of fastballs yesterday, but located better than he did the first time against the Cardinals. Will Burnes have the same success?

If it was somebody other than Wacha, maybe I’d be involved. For now, even from a 1st 5 standpoint, I’ll stay away. Something is up at Miller Park because the place has been a launching pad, specifically for the Brewers, who have scored just shy of seven runs per game at home so far.

OTL PICK: Cardinals +125 over Brewers

905/906 Cincinnati at LA Dodgers (-161, 8.5)

Sonny Gray has thrown the ball really well in his three starts for the Reds. We’ll see how he fares today in a day game against a very solid LA Dodgers lineup. Walker Buehler will attempt to get back on track for the Dodgers against the lackluster Reds lineup.

I’m not going to say that Gray is back, but there are so many encouraging signs thus far. Gray has cut his walk rate, sustained his strikeout gains over 2017-18, and his GB% is up there at 52.8%. Gray walked four and didn’t strike out anybody in his first start with the Reds, but he has a 13/0 K/BB ratio since in a rematch against the Pirates and a start against the Marlins.

This is a monumental step up in class from those two teams, though. That is my worry about Gray today. It’s been great to see him throw the ball so well in the early going, but he’s faced a couple of subpar offenses. What he does today could give me a different perspective on what we can expect from him going forward.

Buehler didn’t get much of a Spring Training and it has shown so far. In three starts he’s allowed 11 runs on 13 hits over 12 innings with an ugly 9/5 K/BB ratio. Buehler’s too good for this to last too long. I think the Dodgers screwed with his head a little bit with how they handled him in Spring Training. I don’t think he’s felt like he has been able to go full bore and it seems like they’ve kind of neutered him to a degree by worrying too much about his workload and things like that. I don’t know if that switch will flip for Buehler and if he’ll just go out there and go max intent.

For right now, he’s only thrown 12 innings after minimal game work in the spring. I’m not sure where he’s at mentally or physically at this point. I know the velocity looks fine, but the command hasn’t and neither has the control.

OTL PICK: UNDER 8.5

907/908 San Francisco at Washington (-128, 8.5)

A lot of respected people in the fantasy and saber communities seem to have stock in Jeff Samardzija this season. Samardzija owns a 1.62 ERA with a 2.66 FIP and a 4.79 xFIP in his 16.2 innings so far. He has not allowed a home run and the league average HR/FB% is up over 14%, so that’s why his xFIP is so high. There will be a lot of pitchers this season that come nowhere near their xFIP marks, so it’s almost a useless stat in some respects.

Samardzija allowed four runs, three earned, on nine hits over his first 9.2 innings with a 6/5 K/BB ratio. He’s coming off of far and away his best start of the season with seven shutout innings at home against the Rockies with seven strikeouts. His velocity is still way down from 2017, his pitch mix has adjusted with more cutters.

I’m not really buying much stock yet. His Z-Contact% is 81% and his career mark is 86%. Guys usually don’t suddenly set career highs in stats like that in their mid-30s, especially with a velocity decline. Samardzija’s 10.6% SwStr% is his highest since 2014. That was a long time ago in pitcher years. He’s not getting many chases, but his O-Contact% is the lowest it has been since 2014 as well. I’m just not buying these things as sustainable developments.

He will get the benefit of a stiff breeze blowing in from right field on a seasonable evening at Nationals Park. The ball really carries well there in the summer months, but not as well here in April and May.

We’ll see Jeremy Hellickson for the first time in a week for the Nationals. After six shutout innings against the Phillies, Hellickson got a couple of extra days. He’s only pitched eight innings so far this season with the six last time out and two in relief on April 2. He walked four, so he wasn’t as sharp as he’d like to be in  that April 10 start, but he only allowed three hits to avoid damage.

Hellickson was 22nd in average exit velocity against last season at 86 mph. He did allow a fair amount of hard contact on fly balls and line drives, but he did a great job of giving his fielders a chance on ground balls. Over 61% of the balls in play in that start were hit on the ground.

The problem with backing Hellickson and the Nats here is that he’s had such minimal work that it’s hard to know what to expect, even against a mostly punchless Giants lineup. The full game is scary because the Nationals are at a big bullpen disadvantage here.

OTL PICK: UNDER 8.5

909/910 Chicago Cubs (-155, 8) at Miami

Let’s talk about Sandy Alcantara for a minute here. The Marlins have taken money at home with regularity and Alcantara took money last time out against the Phillies. He allowed six runs on 11 hits. He had allowed two runs on eight hits in his previous 12 innings, though he did walk five Braves on the road on April 6.

Let’s dig deeper into Alcantara’s start against Philadelphia. Alcantara is 11th in average exit velocity against on the season, minimum 25 batted balls. If we bump that to 50 batted balls, he’s second behind Kenta Maeda. In that start against the Phillies, Alcantara allowed hits with exit velocities of 65.8 mph, 70.3 mph, 74.2 mph, 77.8 mph, and 81.6 mph. Sure, he also allowed some high-velocity contact at 108.5, 105.7, 105.6, and 101.8, but opposing batters are 10-for-31 on batted balls of 88 or less mph against Alcantara on the season. That’s the 27th-highest mark out of 236 pitchers with at least 10 such batted balls. When you consider that Alcantara has only allowed 19 hits, that’s 10 of them on low-velocity contact.

Does that mean that I want to take him and his team against Cole Hamels? No, not really, but it’s to illustrate why I dive as deep as I do. I’ll circle some spots to back Alcantara as we go forward.

Hamels looks pretty good so far with eight runs allowed on 16 hits in 19 innings of work with a 15/3 K/BB ratio…. or does he?

Hamels ranks 191st out of 203 pitchers in average exit velocity with at least 25 batted ball events. He’s allowing a 97.9 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives and 51.7% of his balls in play have been hit at 95+ mph. He’s already allowed eight barreled balls this season. He rates poor to below average in the nine categories on his Statcast player page, which are fastball velocity, fastball spin, curve spin, K%, exit velocity, Hard Hit%, xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. In other words, it appears that Hamels is a pretty big regression candidate with his .232 BABIP.

I’ll look to back Alcantara against less dangerous lineups and lesser starters. Obviously the prices will be lower, but the Cubs certainly have the ability to hit lots of different guys and the Marlins don’t.

OTL PICK: OVER 8

915/916 Boston at NY Yankees (-119, 9)

I’d rather lose a bad handicap than suffer a bad beat. At least I can point to what I did wrong, like trust Chris Sale and maybe overreact a little bit about James Paxton. The Red Sox and Yankees meet again on Wednesday with Nate Eovaldi against JA Happ. You know what I can’t figure out? How the Red Sox offense has been this bad. Boston is 21st in wOBA at .291 and has a 78 wRC+.

I mentioned that there have been some bad luck scenarios on high-velocity contact, but this group has been inexplicably bad. A .268 BABIP is certainly a culprit, but the .372 SLG and the complete lack of power has been something that I just cannot wrap my head around. A few guys are just off to really slow starts, but Mookie Betts with a .220 BABIP and a .307 wOBA is rather astonishing. I know it’s early and guys go through these things in the middle of the season, too, but the Red Sox off to this slow of a start on offense is really something. The weather hasn’t been great, obviously, but this poor level of contact quality from Boston is definitely a surprise.

Maybe things will improve today against JA Happ, who has been awful for the Yankees thus far. Happ has allowed 12 runs on 19 hits in 12.1 innings of work. He’s struck out 13, but he’s also walked five and allowed four home runs. Happ strikes me as a guy really hurt by the juiced ball. He’s tilting way more to the fly ball side once again and has a very unfavorable home park factor.

The Yankees tried to change him in his first start and have him throw fewer fastballs, but that didn’t work. So he went back to throwing more fastballs and that still didn’t work. It’s concerning that Happ was rocked by Baltimore and the White Sox. The Red Sox, despite the awful start, have a lot more promise and potential than those two lineups.

Then there’s Nate Eovaldi, who has also been a mess. Eovaldi has allowed 14 runs on 18 hits in 15 innings of work with 10 strikeouts and 10 walks. He’s given up six home runs, including four in road starts at Seattle and at Oakland. I feel like 2018 was probably the pinnacle for him. It seemed like a lot of people bought into some epiphany for him. I really didn’t. I’m not really sure what there is to love outside of the high velocity, but he had never maximized that in the past anyway. He had good advanced metrics by not allowing home runs, but he never turned the velocity into strikeouts and never really stood out from a command standpoint.

OTL PICK: UNDER 9

925/926 Houston at Oakland (-108, 9)

We’re seeing a little money on the board for the A’s today in the matchup between Wade Miley and Frankie Montas. The Astros crushed the A’s yesterday and our under got crushed by a leadoff walk, two singles, and a sac fly to turn a fortunate push into a disappointing loss on yesterday’s total.

I gave Marco Estrada way too much credit yesterday against an Astros lineup hitting everything in sight. Let’s see what happens today with Frankie Montas. Montas is getting quite a bit of buzz right now with a 58.3% GB%. Montas has a high FIP because he’s allowed four home runs and only has 14 K in 17 innings, but his 28.6% HR/FB% should come down, hence the 3.91 xFIP.

Montas survived five innings against the Astros a couple starts ago with two runs allowed on seven hits. He walked three and struck out five. This is a much better spot for him, though. When you look at parks that suppressed ground balls last season, no park did that more than Oakland Coliseum. This ballpark only allowed a .203 BA on grounders. That was 25 points lower than any other ballpark in baseball. Perhaps it was just a one-year outlier, as Oakland Coliseum has the 12th-highest this season at .249, but also one of the larger sample sizes. The Coliseum was 21st in 2017.

So, that should help Wade Miley as well, right? Miley’s GB% is down to 45.5% after being up in the zone a little too much last time out. In fact, he had a 12.5% GB% in that start against the Mariners. He should see better returns tonight in a rematch with the A’s, who failed to score against him in 5.2 innings on April 6.

The A’s really hit lefties well, which is why this total is still up in the 9 range, even though we have two ground ball guys that shouldn’t allow a lot of home runs. The obvious concern here with an under is that there will be a lot of balls in play, which means that crazy things can happen or errors can be made. These are two really solid infield defenses, though.

The Astros are just so red hot right now that I’m going to play them tonight. They’re really locked in and they’re hitting everything in sight. They had 10 baserunners in five innings against Montas, but only managed the two runs. I’m not sure he can keep walking that tightrope with a .205 BABIP and a 96.8% LOB%. The Astros were 1-for-8 with a walk the first time through the order in that first game. They were 6-for-9 the second time through and drew two walks the third time through.

I think seeing Montas for a second time should help them. I think Miley is plenty good enough to get by, especially in a park that should play to his strengths. Also, the Astros appear to have a noticeable bullpen advantage over the A’s at this point in time.

Pick: UNDER 9

927/928 Pittsburgh at Detroit (-106, 8.5)

What a tough beat on the under yesterday for this interleague matchup. Today we’ll see Trevor Williams and Spencer Turnbull with a total of 8.5. The favorite has flipped in this game. Williams is doing what he did last season over again, much to the chagrin of hardcore sabermetricians. After posting a 3.11/3.86/4.54 pitcher slash last season, he has a 2.45/4.07/4.99 pitcher slash this season.

Williams doesn’t get strikeouts. He’s actually cut his walk rate down this season, which is excellent, but he lives on contact management. He has allowed a .222 BABIP this season after allowing a .261 BABIP last season. He’s 31st in average exit velocity against this season at 85.3 mph among those with at least 25 batted balls. If we remove relievers and go up to 40 batted balls, he’s 13th. That’s his claim to fame.

He’s tilting a little more to the fly ball side at the outset here, which can’t hurt at Comerica Park with the spacious outfield and with winds blowing in from left field. The Tigers are also a very right-handed-heavy lineup and Williams has held righties to a .128/.190/.308 slash in 43 PA so far. He was actually a little bit better against lefties last season, but still held righties below a .300 wOBA.

Turnbull is something of a positive regression candidate per the metrics, as he has a 4.80 ERA with a 3.54 FIP and a 3.92 xFIP in three starts. He has a .400 BABIP against, which is why he’s in line for some positive regression. Turnbull has a really nice arsenal and a 12.5% SwStr% on the season. The thing about Turnbull is that I’m not sure how much I trust him just yet. He’s managed to allow three runs in every start and has allowed 18 hits as a predominantly fly ball pitcher. Is that a command issue? A defensive issue for the Tigers?

He’s right behind Williams in exit velocity and he’s actually seventh in fly ball/line drive exit velocity, so he’s not allowing a ton of hard aerial contact. Remember that list of pitchers and their batting averages on balls in play of 88 or less? Well, opposing batters are 9-for-24 against Turnbull on low-velocity contact. He’s allowed a .295 BA with an xBA of .249 based on his basted ball data. He’s also 31 points higher in the wOBA department than his xwOBA suggests. He’s actually gotten quite unlucky on fastballs with a .387 BA against, despite an average exit velocity of 86 mph.

I think this game sets up pretty well as a live betting opportunity. Turnbull has faced 27 batters the first time through the lineup and has a 12/2 K/BB ratio with a .160/.222/.200 slash. The second time through, he’s faced 27 batters, only has two strikeouts, and has allowed a .458/.519/.750 slash. The Tigers bullpen, as I talked about on Monday’s podcast, is a pretty big regression candidate in my eyes and we saw that yesterday with Shane Greene giving up that Starling Marte homer.

I know nobody likes Trevor Williams, but I believe in what he’s doing. I’m less convinced about Spencer Turnbull, simply because the league is making in-game adjustments and the Tigers already rank 27th in UZR/150 in outfield defense. He’s a fly ball guy that needs those to be converted into outs.

I won’t have an official pick here, but I would look to live bet Pittsburgh if they get behind early. I can’t track that in the spreadsheet, but that’s how I’d approach this one.

OTL PICK: OVER 8.5