Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers Free Preview
In game four, these two teams combined to put up 208 points, just under the projected point total of 212.5. The 76ers won 106-102, covering as 3.5-point favorites. Philadelphia did an excellent job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (27-35; 77.1 percent). Miami, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (15.3 vs. 20.7). Simmons played a huge role in the victory, recording a triple-double with 17 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists.
Conflicting tempos will be on display in this showdown. Philadelphia has preferred an up-tempo style of play (fourth in possessions per game), while Miami has been slower-paced (20th in possessions per game). Also, the Heat rank 21st in offensive efficiency (105.2), while the 76ers rank third in defensive efficiency (102.7).
Of Miami’s 86 games, 44 have finished under the O/U total, while 43 of Philadelphia’s 86 games have finished over the O/U total. The 76ers hold a significant advantage in terms of straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 55-31 SU and 51-35 ATS, while the Heat are 45-41 SU and 42-40-4 ATS.
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Heat, it’s been James Johnson, who has averaged 13.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists, while the 76ers have received solid contributions from Marco Belinelli (19.0 points and 1.6 steals).
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Prediction
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Betting Notes:
The Heat rank 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.8) while the 76ers rank 27th (18.4).
Philadelphia ranks 16th in fast break points per game (11.4) while Miami ranks 27th (9.6).
Philadelphia ranks second in assists per game (27.1) while Miami ranks 16th (22.8).
Philadelphia ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (41.3) while Miami ranks ninth (43.6).
Philadelphia is 28-14 ATS at home, while Miami is 25-16-2 ATS on the road.
The total has gone under in 22 of the Heat’s 43 road games, while 22 of the 76ers’ 42 home games have gone under.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Miami is 27-6 and Philadelphia is 22-0.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Heat are 33-21 and the 76ers are 52-19.
The Heat rank 13th in steals allowed per game (7.6) while the 76ers rank 26th (8.5).
Philadelphia ranks fifth in second chance points per game (13.9) while Miami ranks 26th (11.0).
The 76ers rank first in rebounds per game (47.5) while the Heat rank 20th (43.4).
The Heat rank ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.3) while the 76ers rank 17th in three pointers allowed per game (29.4).
Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.4) while Philadelphia ranks 21st in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
Bettings Trends:
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
Over their last five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
The 76ers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 15.2, up from 4.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 108.4 points per game (4.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.2 points per game (11.6 above their season average).