Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders

Navy Midshipmen

• Head coach: Brian Newberry (fourth year, 26-12 overall)
• 2026 projection: 63rd in SP+, 8.1 average wins (6.6 in the American)

It tells you quite a bit about the state of flux in this league that a Navy team that has to replace its starting quarterback is starting out atop the pile. But the flux is not Navy’s fault. Newberry’s Midshipmen have gone 21-5 over the past two seasons thanks to a combination of aggressive run defense, a great third-and-long pass rush and, perhaps most notably, Drew Cronic’s modernized option offense. Over two seasons and 24 starts, QB Blake Horvath rushed for 2,549 non-sack rushing yards and 33 TDs, an excellent total even for an option QB. But he also passed for 2,933 yards (16.6 per completion) and 25 more scores. This Navy offense is more willing and able to attack with the forward pass when the numbers are right.

We’ve gotten a sustained glimpse at Horvath’s successor, too. Over 19 appearances and two starts in two seasons, Braxton Woodson has rushed for 6.7 per non-sack carry and nine scores, and he has thrown for 353 yards (13.1 per completion) and two touchdowns as well. When the Midshipmen have a stellar QB, they win lots of games. With Woodson and three offensive line starters (plus two key backups) returning, there’s reason for optimism there.

There’s also reason for caution: In Eli Heidenreich, Horvath, Alex Tecza and Brandon Chatman, Navy must replace four players who combined for 4,257 yards from scrimmage last season. The leading non-QB returnees in that category are receivers Luke Hutchison (136 yards) and Joshua Guerin (71). The pipeline for successful Navy running backs is reliable, but no one on this roster has proven himself yet.

With no redshirts available, Navy is used to dealing with pretty heavy turnover, but the defense actually returns far more experience than usual: Of the 15 defenders with 200-plus snaps last season, eight are back, including playmaking lineman Griffen Willis and linebacker MarcAnthony Parker. Since Newberry arrived as Navy’s defensive coordinator in 2019, the Midshipmen have finished between 53rd and 75th in defensive SP+ every season. This should be another season in that range.

If the skill corps provides a new batch of playmakers and the defense helps as expected, Woodson should be more than capable of delivering another big season. The schedule will help, too: Of the six teams projected closest to the Midshipmen in SP+, Navy plays only two in conference play (Army-Navy is a nonconference game). The Midshipmen are projected underdogs against only Notre Dame, and they’re at least a four-point favorite in all but one American game. There are some ifs here, but Navy is well established for a run at its first conference title game appearance in a decade.

Memphis Tigers

• Head coach: Charles Huff (first year)
• 2026 projection: 70th in SP+, 7.5 average wins (5.2 in the American)

After winning just 12 games over a five-year span from 2009 to 2013, Memphis ramped up investments, made a run of good hires and rapidly became one of the steadiest Group of 6 teams in the country. The Tigers have averaged 8.9 wins per year since 2014.

Every coaching change is an opportunity for a reversal in fortune, of course, but hiring Charles Huff certainly made a lot of sense. He won the Sun Belt at Marshall in 2024, and in his only season at Southern Miss in 2025, he brought in a huge number of Marshall players and immediately flipped the Golden Eagles from 1-11 to 7-6. He has brought another caravan with him to Memphis — 53 transfers in all, including 17 from Southern Miss. This is one of the biggest roster flips in the country, and there really aren’t many truly proven players, but there’s athleticism and competition everywhere you look.

The competition starts at QB, where sophomore blue-chipper Air Noland will continue battling former Division II star Marcus Stokes into fall camp. The floor should be pretty high here, and while only one offensive line starter returns (guard Parker Mitchell), Huff signed four starters from elsewhere in the Group of 6 and added a pair of FCS veteran starters as well. Experience won’t be an issue. In the skill corps, veterans like running backs Dallan Hayden (Colorado/Ohio State) and Manny Covey (Cincinnati) and receivers Tychaun Chapman (Southern Miss/Marshall/UNC) and Terrell Timmons Jr. (Colorado/NC State) are both well traveled and semi-proven. I love the offensive coordinator hire, too: Kevin Decker called one of the most explosive offenses in the country at Old Dominion in 2025. He’s a steal.

It’s a similar story on a defense that features almost no returnees but adds loads of seasoned veterans. The Southern Miss connection could really pay off here — among the 11 former Golden Eagle defenders are seven players who saw at least 225 snaps and, in end J’Mond Tapp, safety Ahmere Foster and nickel Ian Foster, at least three outright stars. Huff also added some former star recruits such as tackle K.J. Miles (Temple/Georgia Tech), linebacker Christian Thatcher (Utah) and safety Stonka Burnside (Mississippi State), plus active smaller-school defenders such as end Justin Wallace (Western Carolina) and corners Darius Malcolm Jr. (Wofford) and Ellis Ellis Jr. (Austin Peay). If Huff and his staff can craft any semblance of chemistry here, Memphis appears to have as much upside as any team in the conference, just as it has for most of the past decade-plus.

UTSA Roadrunners

• Head coach: Jeff Traylor (seventh year, 53-26 overall)
• 2026 projection: 73rd in SP+, 7.5 average wins (5.3 in the American)

Three years ago, in response to losing Cincinnati, Houston and UCF to the Big 12, it sure seemed like the American went with quantity over known quality in adding six Conference USA programs that had seen iffy-at-best football consistency. Sure enough, for as lovely as North Texas’ 2025 run was, it’s the only winning season produced by any of five additions (Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice and UAB) thus far. In the other 14 combined seasons, these teams are 57-114 with an average SP+ ranking of 110.7.

UTSA, on the other hand, has been a model of stability. The Roadrunners went 23-5 with two SP+ top-60 finishes in their p ast two seasons in CUSA, and while the win total has gone down against tougher teams, they’ve been over .500 every year and have averaged an SP+ ranking of 58.0. And if they can turn their close-game fortunes around in 2026, they could contend: They were 2-6 in one-score finishes in 2024-25.

Offense has been the calling card under Traylor. UTSA has averaged an offensive SP+ ranking of 31.8 over the last five seasons, and with quarterback Owen McCown, big-play running back Will Henderson III, two of last year’s top three receivers and three offensive line starters (plus two more who started games) returning, it’s hard to see the Roadrunners suddenly falling off in this regard. Henderson averaged a thrilling 6.9 yards per carry last season (3.5 after contact), and wideout AJ Wilson averaged 17.0 yards per catch. Explosiveness should remain a strength.

McCown was inconsistent in 2025, with a few duds dispersed throughout the season, but his best moments were incredible: Against Tulane and East Carolina, for instance, he threw for 618 yards and nine touchdowns with a Total QBR over 95.0, and the Roadrunners scored a combined 106 points.

The defense must deal with major turnover — of the 22 defenders with 200-plus snaps, only eight return — but that’s less scary when you have ranked outside the top 80 in defensive SP+ for four of the past five years. Longtime coordinator Jess Loepp seeks havoc and turnovers and seems OK with giving up occasional big plays in the name of getting the ball back to the offense. And at the very least, Traylor has given him quite a few productive veterans. That includes edge rusher Elijah Baldwin (UTEP), plus smaller-school standouts such as tackles Jeremiah Bailey (Eastern Kentucky) and Jusiah Sampleton (CSU Pueblo) and, in safeties Xavier Walton (Angelo State) and Nate Robinson Jr. (Marist), a duo that combined for 10 interceptions and 20 pass breakups last year. Traylor also landed former blue-chippers in edge rushers Collins Acheampong (Bowling Green/UCLA/Miami) and Dylan Spencer (Texas Tech) and safety Joel Rogers (LSU). Any improvement here would help the cause.

East Carolina Pirates

• Head coach: Blake Harrell (second full year, 14-5 overall)
• 2026 projection: 76th in SP+, 7.8 average wins (5.5 in the American)

Harrell is setting the bar high in Greenville. In the 19 games before he took over at East Carolina, the Pirates went 5-14. In his first 19 games in charge, they went 14-5. They hadn’t won more than eight games in a season in 12 years, and they hadn’t produced a top-40 SP+ ranking in 25. Harrell pulled off both last season. North Texas’ Eric Morris deservedly won the conference’s coach of the year award in 2025, but I hope Harrell got serious consideration.

If Harrell’s Pirates win nine games again in 2026, definitely give him the award. That would be quite the feat. Both of last year’s coordinators are gone, as are 10 offensive starters and basically 8.5 defensive starters. Ten players, including quarterback Katin Houser (Illinois), three all-conference linemen (two offense, one defense) and safety Ja’Marley Riddle (Georgia), transferred to power conference teams. You get punished for mid-major success these days, and Harrell’s job will be quite a bit harder this fall.

He made some pretty exciting moves, though, grabbing former North Texas offensive coordinator Jordan Davis and Memphis defensive coordinator Jordon Hankins. Instead of loading up on lower-level transfers, Harrell instead focused quite a bit on mid-major production in the portal: He added running backs Ashton Gray (North Texas) and Michael Allen (Marshall), receiver Landon Sides (North Texas), tight end Kanen Hamlett (Appalachian State), offensive linemen Brandon Best (Kennesaw State) and Hayes Creel (Southern Miss), linebacker Crews Law (Memphis), cornerback Ashton Levells-Mitchell (Florida International) and safety Zyeir Gamble (Appalachian State). Throw in all-Big Sky offensive lineman Ethan Kramer (Northern Arizona), former blue-chip receiver Ray Ray Joseph (Miami) and a couple of quarterbacks from the power conference ranks — Mitch Griffis (Texas Tech) and Emory Williams (Miami) — and you have an awfully intriguing transfer class.

Griffis has thrown for 2,314 yards and 17 touchdowns, and has shown some fun scrambler-gambler tendencies, in parts of five seasons at Wake Forest and Texas Tech. Meanwhile, the more pocket-based Williams went 1-1 as a spot starter at Miami back in 2023 and has produced a solid career Total QBR of 70.8. They will battle into the fall, but whoever wins the job could play at a pretty high level.

Calling ECU a contender after all that turnover makes me a bit nervous, but Harrell made a lot of sensible moves, and with what he has done thus far, he gets the benefit of the doubt. Playing only one of the league’s top three projected teams, while playing each of the bottom three, will help, too. This season will be quite the test, but we don’t have any evidence that Harrell might fail it.

Army Black Knights

• Head coach: Jeff Monken (13th year, 89-63 overall)
• 2026 projection: 81st in SP+, 7.1 average wins (5.0 in the American)

Just two years ago, it was easy to wonder whether service academies could remain competitive in this new version of college football. Never mind the way the transfer portal allowed non-service academies to maintain a higher level of overall experience and development; it was the changes to cut blocking rules that seemed to be having the biggest impact, especially for the types of option offenses Army and Navy ran. From 2017 to 2021, one of the two teams won at least nine games each season, and the programs combined for a .576 win percentage and an average SP+ ranking of 75.8. But in 2022-23, their combined win percentage fell to .438, their average ranking to 102.0. Navy replaced coach Ken Niumatalolo in 2023, but Army stuck it out with Monken. Both teams changed offensive coordinators, attempting to freshen things up in different ways.

All decisions were rewarded. The teams are a combined 40-13 (.755) over the past two seasons, with an average ranking of 53.8. And the only reason that record isn’t even higher is that Army forgot how to win close games last season: The Black Knights were 4-5 in one-score finishes after going 23-16 in such games from 2017 to 2024.

Quarterback Cale Hellums returns this fall, and that’s probably a very good thing for the Army offense. The Black Knights were 6-4 when he started and 1-2 when he didn’t, and they averaged more points per drive (2.69 vs. 1.73) with far better success on third (44.8% conversion rate vs. 29.5%) and fourth downs (75.6% vs. 53.3%) when he was in the lineup. He’ll be without last season’s top two rushers, but four starting linemen return, including all-conference center Brady Small, and senior fullback Carson Smith and sophomore Godspower Nwawuihe — a breakout star in last season’s Fenway Bowl, with 171 yards and two touchdowns — should assure the proper firepower in the backfield. Deep threat Brady Anderson (27.2 yards per catch!) returns out wide.

Army’s bend-don’t-break defense has been effective over the past three seasons, but it’s facing quite a bit of turnover. Three of last season’s top five linemen return, including excellent end Jack Bousum, but last season’s three primary linebackers and five of six defensive backs are gone. This is Army, so there are of course plenty of upperclassmen waiting for their opportunities; junior nickel Cole Searight and corner Jaxon Hammond are particularly exciting. But returning linebackers combined for just 22 tackles and no TFLs last season. They bear the burden of playmaking proof.

After nine one-score finishes last year, Army has another 10 such games projected for 2026. The minor details will matter quite a bit, but if Monken’s Knights recover their close-game magic, they could make a title run.

A couple of breaks away from a run

South Florida Bulls

• Head coach: Brian Hartline (first year)
• 2026 projection: 80th in SP+, 7.9 average wins (4.5 in the American)

If you hire Hartline as your head coach, you’re expecting him to build a hell of a roster. Hartline was long regarded as Ohio State’s best recruiter over his nine seasons as an assistant at his alma mater, and his first USF roster will feature 10 former blue-chippers, 24 incoming transfers from power-conference rosters and a power-conference roster’s worth of big dudes. His Bulls will immediately look the part.

Tactics and organization? We’ll see. Ohio State’s most conservative recent offenses were the two that had him as coordinator (2023 and 2025), whether or not he was calling the plays, and his new offensive coordinator, Tim Beck, is an old friend who hasn’t been part of a particularly good offense in a while. If USF scores lots of points, it will be because of superior athletes.

It might have those athletes. Hartline’s first starting QB will likely be Michael Van Buren Jr. The former blue-chipper showed solid promise as a freshman at Mississippi State before getting caught in the wake of LSU’s disastrous offense last season. Most of his supporting cast will be newcomers, but holdovers such as guard Thomas Shrader and receiver Mudia Reuben (plus, perhaps, youngsters like running back Chase Garnett) could come in handy. Among the most proven transfers are running backs D.J. Crowther (Dartmouth) and Jason Collins Jr. (Morgan State); receivers Cameron Seldon (Virginia Tech), Kenny Odom (UTEP) and Arhmad Branch (Purdue); and a solid haul of linemen led by all-Sun Belt guard Caleb Cook (Georgia Southern).

On defense, Hartline nabbed ECU’s aggressive Josh Aldridge and handed him lots of transfers, including a couple of power conference starters. There aren’t many proven veterans, but corner Za’Quan Bryan (Minnesota) and nickel Ayden Jackson (Georgia Southern) should be immediate hits, and outside linebackers MarShon Oxley (West Virginia) and Shamar Meikle (Oregon State) seem like solid havoc creators. My favorite newcomer of the bunch, however, might be defensive tackle Major Dillard (Norfolk State), who made 70 tackles last year … at 330 pounds! Chasing plays like a linebacker!

It wouldn’t take that much to make USF a contender, but I do need to see that the offensive tactics are up to speed.

Tulane Green Wave

• Head coach: Will Hall (first year)
• 2026 projection: 87th in SP+, 6.5 average wins (4.6 in the American)

If one SP+ projection in this piece caught your eye, it was probably Tulane’s. The Green Wave are 43-13 over the past four seasons and reached the CFP last season, and they already proved sturdy enough to survive one major coaching change, replacing Houston-bound Willie Fritz with the dynamite Jon Sumrall in 2024. How on earth are they projected 87th overall and seventh in the American?

It’s a fair question. Here’s my best stab at answers.

1. SP+ didn’t like the Green Wave very much last season. They went 5-0 in one-score games, and their three losses were by a combined 88 points. The defense graded out pretty poorly, and they finished just 45th in SP+.
2. Coaching change effects. One new piece in the SP+ projections is an adjustment for coaching changes — if you overachieved far beyond your 20-year average and lost your head coach, regression will probably hit you pretty hard. Tulane stunk for most of that 20-year window until these past four seasons, so even ranking 45th was quite a bit higher than its 20-year average. Therefore the regression monster is expected to get pretty mean.

Consider this season a test of the infrastructure. Is a four-year run of excellence enough to create a regression-proof program? Especially when the school made a pretty uninspiring hire and returns only about six starters?

Tulane’s offense could be pretty solid if it has a quarterback. A combination of sophomore running back Jamauri McClure (last five games of 2025: 490 yards at 6.5 per carry), senior Anthony Brown-Stephens, Zycarl Lewis Jr. (another explosive sophomore) and transfer running back/slot man Jaylin Lucas (Florida State) should assure that the skill corps is properly dangerous. Meanwhile, the line returns three players with starting experience and adds three transfers. Be it junior Kadin Semonza, Houston/Louisiana transfer Zeon Chriss-Gremillion or rising sophomore Dagan Bruno, a capable QB should be able to engineer points.

The defense returns more than the offense, but it also needed an upgrade. Linebacker Chris Rodgers is proven, and the secondary should be sound with sophomore corner E’zaiah Shine, safety Jack Tchienchou and exciting transfers such as nickel Kajuan Banks (USF), Marquez Stevenson (Texas Tech) and Anthony Rogers (Nicholls). But last season’s top four linemen are gone, and only one semi-proven transfer (South Alabama’s Ed Smith IV) has arrived.

Florida Atlantic Owls

• Head coach: Zach Kittley (second year, 4-8 overall)
• 2026 projection: 95th in SP+, 6.2 average wins (3.6 in the American)

You might also find it odd that FAU is barely behind Tulane. The Owls have finished under .500 for five straight years, averaging a 100.6 SP+ ranking, and even during an entertaining 2025 season, they still went 0-7 against top-100 opponents, staying within one score only once.

If Tulane’s projection is a story of turnover in the transfer era, however, FAU’s projection is based around an old, reliable concept: continuity. The Owls have the best returning production of any Group of 6 team, and while my opinions don’t play a role in the projections, I absolutely loved the transfer class Kittley brought to Boca Raton.

Quarterback Caden Veltkamp was eighth in the nation with 3,641 passing yards last season, operating the nation’s most up-tempo offense to solid success. He sat out the spring after shoulder surgery but should be ready to go in the fall. Kittley managed to retrain 1,000-yard slot man Easton Messer and 575-yard wideout Dominique Henry and added some athletic but unproven transfers, such as Tucker Holloway (Virginia Tech) and Kelby Valsin (Texas Tech). Veltkamp could stand to get more help from the run game; Kittley leaned on smaller schools for reinforcements on the line and at running back — new addition Leonard Farrow rushed for 1,438 yards (8.1 per carry) at Division II’s Fairmont State.

The defense tackled well in 2025, but opponents tended to gain quite a few yards before the contact came. In the search for better disruption, Kittley added some of the most exciting small-school transfers in the country, such as defensive end Kenyon Garner (28 TFLs at Livingstone), linebacker Nate Fischer (8.5 TFLs and 12 passes defended at San Diego), corner Ahlston Ware (12 passes defended at Ferris State) and safety Bo Simpson-Nealy (seven TFLs at Western Carolina). In tackles Blake Burris (SMU) and Corey Clark (Mississippi State), he added a couple of 300-pound power-conference guys, too. It seems like this was a pretty big production upgrade; we’ll see what coordinator Brett Dewhurst can do with it.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

• Head coach: Tre Lamb (second year, 4-8 overall)
• 2026 projection: 98th in SP+, 6.4 average wins (4.1 in the American)

“First-year head coach crafts a fun, up-tempo offense and leads a young team to some decent results (while mostly bombing against good teams).” We just talked about a team like that with FAU, but Tulsa fits the same description. Lamb’s first season after coming over from ETSU wasn’t an absolute thrill, but his Golden Hurricane got 2,158 passing yards out of freshman quarterback Baylor Hayes, beat Oklahoma State for the first time since 1998 and upset Oregon State and Army late to finish 4-8 and 104th in SP+, a ranking better than either of Kevin Wilson’s seasons before Lamb.

Hayes returns, as do five of the seven offensive linemen who started at least four games (they average 6-foot-5, 314 pounds) and six of the top eight defensive backs, including four players who were sophomores last season. Corner Elijah Green (five INTs, eight breakups) and nickel Devin Robinson (5.5 TFLs, one INT, three breakups) are stars.

That’s a good starting point, but the transfer portal will have to provide any further answers.

The skill corps and defensive front six got hit pretty hard by attrition. Lamb landed veterans such as linebacker Devin Hightower (UAB) and end Jayden Madkins (Louisiana Tech) for the defense, but I’m not sure about the depth there. I do, however, love the skill corps additions. In terms of yards from scrimmage, Tulsa’s top six players have departed. Slot receiver Grayson Tempest has good hands, and sophomores Josh Smith and Donnell Gee Jr. caught 14 passes for 325 yards between them; they could be ready for more opportunities. Meanwhile, the running back haul of DJ McKinney (New Mexico), Trequan Jones (Old Dominion), Damari Alston (Auburn) and Seth Davis (Mississippi State) is better than most power-conference programs managed, and there’s decent potential in receivers David Wells Jr. (Oregon State), Javon Ross (Bethune-Cookman), Jimmy Calloway (Tulane) and Oran Singleton (West Virginia).

Dominic Richardson was a star at running back, but this seems like a net gain. The Golden Hurricane scored more than 30 points three times and allowed more than 30 seven times. I’m betting that ratio evens out this year.

Temple Owls

• Head coach: K.C. Keeler (second year, 5-7 overall)
• 2026 projection: 102nd in SP+, 5.8 average wins (3.9 in the American)

For two months, Keeler coached about as well as anyone in college football. Reality struck his Owls down in November.

• First 8 games: 5-3 record, 33.3 PPG, 26.0 PPG allowed, +9.4 PPG vs. SP+ projections
• Last 4 games: 0-4 record, 16.3 PPG, 37.0 PPG allowed, -12.1 PPG vs. SP+ projections

It didn’t help that Temple played three of the league’s best teams down the stretch, but the Owls just didn’t quite have enough depth yet. Still, they ended up with their best record and SP+ ranking of the 2020s. It was an encouraging start for a storied coach who has coached in nine FCS and Division III national title games and led Sam Houston to a 10-win season in its second year in the FBS.

If he has a quarterback, Keeler could generate more progress this season. Coordinator Tyler Walker will have an experienced offensive line (four starters return) and a skill corps with running backs Hunter Smith (6.5 yards per carry) and Keveun Mason (6.0), two senior wideouts (Colin Chase and JoJo Bermudez) and one of the league’s best tight ends (Peter Clarke). Either Jaxon Smolik (Penn State) or Ajani Sheppard (Washington State) will land the QB job; both were pretty well-touted recruits, but they’ve combined for 46 snaps and 23 passing yards in their careers. It’s hard to guess what either might have to offer, but they’ll have a strong, persistent run game on which to lean.

Keeler gets a second chance at setting up a decent defense. Temple ranked just 109th in defensive SP+ but played a ton of guys: 28 saw at least 100 snaps. Only 10 of them return, but that includes a disruptive linebacker in Curly Ordonez and intriguing sophomores such as end Russell Sykes IV and corners Denzel Chavis and Adrian Laing. Keeler also signed five junior college players and 11 transfers — my favorites: end Jaylon Joseph (Lafayette), tackle Kevin Hornbeak (Tiffin) and safety Kolin Dinkins (Penn State). Temple averaged a rock-solid defensive SP+ ranking of 54.3 in the 2010s but has averaged a 113.2 ranking in the 2020s. It’s hard to predict major improvement, but Keeler has a track record, and both the sophomores and transfers have potential.

North Texas Mean Green

• Head coach: Neal Brown (first year)
• 2026 projection: 109th in SP+, 5.2 average wins (3.8 in the American)

It’s a pretty cruel world out there. North Texas just fielded its best team, winning 12 games with the best offense in the country, and it even made a rock-solid hire after losing its head coach. But the Mean Green are projected to win five games and fall 87 spots in SP+. And how could they not be?

Here’s a complete list of returnees who saw at least 200 snaps in green and white last year:

DT Terrell Washington (330 snaps)

Here’s a complete list of offensive returnees who saw at least 100 snaps:

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North Texas lost Eric Morris to Oklahoma State, and he took a huge number of his best players with him. The roster was picked apart even further by others.

Brown was excellent as a mid-major head coach at Troy, going 31-8 from 2016-18. He signed quite a few pretty exciting transfers on both sides of the ball, too. On offense: Quarterbacks Tayven Jackson (UCF) and Chaston Ditta (East Carolina); running backs Jahiem White (West Virginia) and Brendon Haygood (Missouri); receivers Corri Milliner (UAB), TJ Chukwurah (Black Hills State) and James Tyre (Western Carolina); and offensive linemen Chandler Strong (Georgia Southern) and Johnny Williams IV (Missouri). On defense: end Davion Rhodes (Georgia Southern); tackles Justin Benton (East Carolina) and Christian Lorenzo (Illinois State); linebackers Aaron Alexander (Arkansas State), Udoka Ezeani (UTEP) and Cedric Roberts (Alcorn State); corners Caden Jenkins (Baylor), Zach Johnson (Southeastern Louisiana) and Peyton Taylor (Emporia State); and safeties Keshawn Davila (Arkansas) and CJ Coombes (Wofford).

Between Jackson, Ditta and redshirt freshman Chris Jimerson Jr., Brown might have a good quarterback, and he might find an overall chemistry experiment here that works pretty well. But almost no one on this roster will have had anything to do with last season’s incredible team.

The indie

UConn Huskies

• Head coach: Jason Candle (first year)
• 2026 projection: 107th in SP+, 5.2 average wins

This seems like a pretty good place to squeeze in UConn because the Huskies basically got North Texas’d as well. Over the past two seasons under Jim Mora, the Huskies won 18 games and improved first to 67th in SP+, then to 53rd. Then Mora left for Colorado State, and 44 players entered the portal; 16 of them followed Mora to Fort Collins.

In response, UConn North Texas’d Toledo and hired former Rockets head coach Candle, who brought in 56 transfers, 19 from Toledo. UConn now has five players who started games for UConn last season and eight who started games for Toledo.

Did you keep up with all that?

While a lot of Candle’s incoming transfers are underclassmen, the Huskies will still have quality veteran player. On offense, veteran running backs Kenji Christian (Toledo), Trey Cornist (Central Michigan) and Cyncir Bowers (West Virginia); receivers Flash Wilson (Youngstown State) and Cam Abshire (Oklahoma State); and tackle Christian Richter (Marshall) will pair with youngsters such as quarterbacks Kalieb Osborne (Toledo) and Jake Merklinger (Tennessee); running back Dashun Reeder (Northwestern); receivers Ryder Treadway (Toledo), Emanuel Ross (Syracuse) and Javon Brown (Toledo); and quite a few linemen. Osborne and Merklinger each got their feet wet last season, and returning sophomore Tucker McDonald showed potential in the spring. As is the case for seemingly every team in the American Conference, quality QB play would make the chemistry experiment more likely to work.

The defense has more proven stars in the front six: Linebacker K’Von Sherman (Toledo) made 17 TFLs for the Rockets last season, while end Anas Luqman (Ohio) and tackle Esean Carter (Toledo) combined for 14.5. Corner Moussa Kane (Duke) was good in a small sample, too, but the secondary will be relying more on athleticism than proven production, and that could be an issue.

It stinks that this is such a heavy transition year, as UConn’s home schedule is awfully fun: Maryland, Syracuse and North Carolina will visit East Hartford, as will last season’s two best Sun Belt teams (James Madison and Old Dominion). There are some memorable win opportunities if UConn is solid, but such massive turnover makes the Huskies a mystery team.

Just looking for a path to 6-6

Rice Owls

• Head coach: Scott Abell (second year, 5-8 overall)
• 2026 projection: 120th in SP+, 3.8 average wins (2.3 in the American)

“Say hello to your new favorite offense.” That’s a line from last year’s Rice preview; it might have been a bit of a hopeful overstatement.

Abell brought his gun-option Davidson offense, which averaged over 300 rushing yards in the FCS, to Rice, and his first Owls team did improve by one win. But while the offensive line was decent despite heavy shuffling, Abell didn’t seem to have a natural fit at quarterback, and they couldn’t even slightly avoid negative plays. That’s anathema to an option attack. There were some fun moments, but Rice averaged only 13.8 points in losses.

Former Miami and UCF quarterback Jacurri Brown now takes over at QB. It’s a fun choice, as Brown has compiled more non-sack rushing yards (927) than passing yards (906) over parts of four seasons. Three of last season’s top four RBs return, including leader Quinton Jackson, and of the 11 linemen who started at least once last season, six return. The receiving corps got a major overhaul, but that will matter only so much if the run game is doing what it should.

Rice’s defense was actually more fun than its offense, for better and worse: The Owls created lots of negative plays but gave up lots of big plays as well. All five of the players with more than four TFLs are gone, as are Rice’s two best cornerbacks, so we’ll see whether coordinator Jon Kay feels comfortable attacking. But Abell made some nice additions to the secondary — young former power-conference corners such as Jamir Benjamin (UCLA) and Kyren Condoll (Duke) and a playmaking smaller-school safety in Koa Akui (Sacramento State).

UAB Blazers

• Head coach: Alex Mortensen (first full year, 2-4 overall)
• 2026 projection: 125th in SP+, 4.1 average wins (2.1 in the American)

Every coaching change is an opportunity for a reversal in fortunes, one way or the other. Just ask UAB. After a long period of destitution, the school made a transformative hire in Bill Clark, who won two Conference USA titles and earned UAB a promotion to the American (and whose promise led the school to backtrack on its decision to permanently drop football in 2015). Then, after Clark retired because of back problems, UAB hired Trent Dilfer. Three years and 11 wins later, the program appears directionless again.

The school replaced Dilfer with his offensive coordinator, Alex Mortensen, who brought in veteran defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. Neither hire was incredibly inspiring, but it might have saved some money for a solid, 39-man transfer class.

The portal will be key to dragging the Blazers out of the nation’s bottom 10 in defensive SP+ for the first time since 2022. In players such as ends Marlin Dean (Georgia State) and Blanche Gold (Morgan State); linebackers Muaaz Byard (MTSU) and Shaun Myers (Colorado); nickel Jeremiah Jordan (Memphis); corners Darrell Sweeting (Marshall) and Que Billingsley (Gardner-Webb); and safety Diezel Wilkinson (Montana), they will have a decent number of semi-proven playmakers.

Any pressure the defense could take off the offense would be welcome. The Blazers have scored plenty of points with Mortensen, but only two returnees — center Adam Lepkowski and guard Calib Perez — started more than four games last season. Quarterback Ryder Burton had some promising moments as last season’s backup, but the skill corps is awfully new and will likely be led by running backs Ja’Vin Simpkins (Coastal Carolina) and Braylon McReynolds (ULM) and receivers Kaleb Brown (a rare returnee) and Ty Mims (Southern Miss/Texas State).

Charlotte 49ers

• Head coach: Tim Albin (second year, 1-11 overall)
• 2026 projection: 138th in SP+, 1.3 average wins (0.5 in the American)

Charlotte’s offense generated one or two big passes per game but fell behind schedule on virtually every other snap. Its bend-don’t-break defense prevented big plays reasonably well but bent way too much for it to matter. It was 109th in special teams SP+, and that was its strength.

Nothing went right in Albin’s first season. His 49ers failed to stay within single digits of a single FBS opponent. And he couldn’t claim much developmental progress because of the 43 players who saw at least 200 snaps only 11 return. As always seems to be the case, progress will be dictated by portal success.

They’re projected dead last in the FBS, but if they buck the odds, here are my best guesses why:

• They have upside at QB. Conner Harrell produced decent numbers last September before suffering a major knee injury, and veteran Grayson Loftis and Western Carolina (via Pitt) transfer Cole Gonzales are in town, too.
• The QB will have pass catchers. Last season’s top eight targets are gone, but the portal delivered slot man Jaden Barnes (Appalachian State), high-upside FCS wideouts Cam Pedro (SE Missouri State) and Zyheem Collick (Bryant), and a pair of tight ends.
• The portal delivered young heft at defensive tackle. Albin landed former North Carolina redshirt freshman Devin Ancrum (6-foot-1, 300 pounds), Catawba sophomore D’Nas White (6-foot-4, 335) and Wingate redshirt freshman Lewis Price (6-foot-4, 295). Linebackers Kadin Schmitz and Curtis Simpson could be exciting if they have an immovable front ahead of them.

The 49ers have huge questions at running back, on both lines (size aside) and in the secondary. But Albin has been part of lots of good football in his career, at least, and everyone should have reason for optimism in May.