What Horses are the 2021 Kentucky Derby Contenders?
Let’s take a look at the top 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders:
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Essential Quality +325
This colt checks all the boxes and is the early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby at Bovada at +325. The Brad Cox trainee was the champion two-year-old of 2020, capping off his season by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). The colt won both of his preps this year, taking the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park in his three-year-old debut and then won the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland by a hard-fought neck over Highly Motivated. Cox has become one of the top conditioners in the game, and this will be his first year with Derby starters. His other contenders are Mandaloun and possibly Caddo River.
Rock Your World +450
This colt burst onto the Kentucky Derby scene by winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 2. His early Derby odds have dropped to +450, good for second choice among the Kentucky Derby 2021 horses. The colt raced on turf in his first two starts. He broke his maiden on grass in his debut on January 1 and then won the Pasadena going a mile on turf on February 27. The colt has the distinction of being the only 2021 Kentucky Derby horse that owns a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure with his 100 he earned in his Santa Anita Derby victory. His trainer, John Sadler, is 0-for-4 with his Derby starters, the most recent a 14th-place finish with Candy Boy in 2014.
Known Agenda +700
No trainer in the history of the Kentucky Derby has started more runners than Todd Pletcher, who has started 55 runners with just two wins — Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. He likely will start four this year, led by Known Agenda, the winner of the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park in his last outing. The colt made three starts as a juvenile, running third in the Remsen (G3) in his stakes debut. The colt put it all together in his last outing and comes into the Derby with the right running style to win the race.
Hot Rod Charlie +800
This Doug O’Neill trainee won the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his last start and his 99 Beyer Speed Figure is topped only by Rock Your World’s 100. This colt was beaten just three-quarters of a length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall at Keeneland at whopping odds of 94-1. His three-year-old debut this year came in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita where he was beaten a neck and a nose in a third-place finish. He now comes back off a 42-day break; the last Derby winner to win off such a break was Animal Kingdom in 2011 and we must go back to Needles in 1956 to find another. (Last year Authentic won the Derby off a 49-day break but let’s not forget that race came in September and it was his fifth start of the year). O’Neill has started six runners in the Derby and has won with a pair — I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016.
Highly Motivated +1000
This colt gave Essential Quality all he could handle in the Blue Grass. The Chad Brown trainee set the early fractions and battled on gamely in the stretch to come up just a neck short. The colt came off a four-month break to run third in the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct going a one-turn mile in his first start of the year. In the Gotham, he bobbled coming out of the gate and made a mild late run. There is plenty of early speed in the Derby this year and this colt will likely need to come from off the pace like he did in the Gotham. Brown is 0-for-5 with his Derby starters, the best finish a second with Good Magic in 2018.
Medina Spirit +1400
As usual, early this season Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had a barn full of 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders, but now that the dust has cleared, he is down to just one. Medina Spirit gives Baffert a chance to become the only trainer in the history of the race to win it seven times. The colt was no match for Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby, checking in second and beaten 4¼ lengths. Two back he was a distant second to his stablemate Life Is Good in the San Felipe (G2), the winner now off the Derby trail with an injury. Medina Spirit did win the Robert B. Lewis three back. His numbers are coming up light but when you have Baffert calling the shots, there is a chance this colt can be in the mix.