MLB Underdogs have been the story of the season so far. We love to find profitable angles and trends to help bettors approach a grueling MLB season and one of the ways so far in 2021 has been to just blindly bet every underdog moneyline. If you had backed every MLB underdog on the moneyline so far this season with $100 bets (858 games), you’d be up to $2,284.66 in profit. Those profits aren’t quite as juicy as they had been but the goal in sports betting should be long-term gains, not getting rich quickly.
We will be updating this report with new data weekly all the way through to the final out of the World Series, so be sure to check back frequently.
We also have been keeping track of all the MLB First Five Inning betting results from this season and you can find those updated records in his betting report. MLB Underdogs!
All profits listed based on $100 per bet.
2021 MLB Underdogs Moneyline Profits
| Situation | Underdog SU Records | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 379-479 (44.2%) | +$2,284.66 |
| HOME | 145-162 (47.2%) | +$2,211.19 |
| ROAD | 234-317 (42.5%) | +$73.47 |
| LAST 3 DAYS | 16-23 (41.0%) | -$309.96 |
| LAST 7 DAYS | 39-51 (43.3%) | -$270.76 |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 77-103 (42.8%) | -$285.75 |
| LAST 30 DAYS | 156-233 (40.1%) | -$3,126.96 |
| DAY | 156-192 (44.8%) | +$1,521.72 |
| NIGHT | 223-287 (43.7%) | +$762.94 |
MLB Underdogs: Betting records as of June 7, 2021
With MLB underdogs winning outright 44.2 percent of the time, profits are remaining steady for bettors. If you had backed every MLB underdog so far this season, you’d be up to $2,284.66 in profit. That’s a decent return in just over two months of the season.
Home underdogs are holding steady so far this season at 145-162 SU through 307 games and are holding up their end of the bargain with profits of $2,211.19 for $100 bettors.
With so many games each day, it’s important to look at the splits to see how this MLB underdog trend is faring. For example, over the last month, underdogs have been sinking hard and the well may be drying up for new bettors trying to adopt this strategy. In that span, underdogs are 156-233 SU with negative profits of -$3,126.86 for $100 bettors.
Picking and choosing your spots while anticipating a regression can sometimes make a huge difference to your bankroll.
2021 MLB Underdogs Runline Profits
| Situation | Underdog ATS Records | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 519-362 (58.9%) | -$602.58 |
| HOME | 186-136 (57.8%) | +$330.6 |
| ROAD | 333-226 (59.6%) | -$933.18 |
| LAST 3 DAYS | 26-19 (57.8%) | -$226.85 |
| LAST 7 DAYS | 58-38 (60.4%) | +$48.48 |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 110-78 (58.5%) | -$476.15 |
| LAST 30 DAYS | 229-175 (56.7%) | -$2,010.28 |
MLB Underdogs – Betting records as of June 7, 2021
Personally, I don’t usually bet or recommend bettors play +1.5 runlines for MLB underdogs. The juice is often such a squeeze that bettors likely have to wager more than $100 each time just to make the potential returns worth it and then the team you back could still lose by two runs anyway.
MLB Underdogs: The fact remains that if you had blindly bet $100 on the +1.5 runline for every MLB underdog, you’d have negative profits. When you look at the underdog runline record and see 519-362, that would obviously get bettors excited because an angle is hitting at 58.9 percent. The issue, as I mentioned, is most +1.5 runline odds are -200, or worse in some cases, which seriously negates potential profits. That’s why just taking the moneyline instead of the +1.5 runline in MLB is the more sound investment long term.
| Day | Underdog Runline | Underdog Profit | Underdog SU | Underdog Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 48-38 (55.8%) | -$441.36 | 36-48 (42.9%) | +$28.54 |
| Tuesday | 82-55 (59.9%) | +$61.52 | 69-68 (50.4%) | +$2,339.57 |
| Wednesday | 80-46 (63.5%) | +$1,001.02 | 58-67 (46.4%) | +$1,077.37 |
| Thursday | 67-44 (60.4%) | +$136.58 | 47-61 (43.5%) | +$193.33 |
| Friday | 72-57 (55.8%) | -$872.0 | 45-79 (36.3%) | -$2,018.85 |
| Saturday | 84-66 (56.0%) | -$695.16 | 58-87 (40.0%) | -$1,082.38 |
| Sunday | 86-56 (60.6%) | +$206.82 | 66-69 (48.9%) | +$1,747.09 |
Betting records as of June 7, 2021
If you had blindly bet $100 on every underdog moneyline exclusively on Tuesdays (137 games), you’d be up to $2,339.57 in profit.
MLB Underdogs Moneyline Team Report
| Team | Underdog Win % | Underdog SU Record | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 69.6 | 16-7 | 1,277.71 |
| Brewers | 61.5 | 16-10 | 903.76 |
| Astros | 61.5 | 8-5 | 445.14 |
| Yankees | 60.0 | 3-2 | 110.5 |
| Rays | 60.0 | 18-12 | 1,005.52 |
| Giants | 57.1 | 16-12 | 950.0 |
| Blue Jays | 54.8 | 17-14 | 750.48 |
| Indians | 53.8 | 14-12 | 450.24 |
| Mets | 50.0 | 10-10 | 170.61 |
| Mariners | 49.0 | 24-25 | 791.15 |
| Phillies | 46.7 | 14-16 | 152.24 |
| Braves | 46.7 | 7-8 | 42.91 |
| Angels | 46.4 | 13-15 | 157.75 |
| Reds | 46.2 | 12-14 | 208.1 |
| Athletics | 45.5 | 10-12 | 7.91 |
| Cubs | 44.8 | 13-16 | 53.37 |
| Cardinals | 43.3 | 13-17 | -111.25 |
| Padres | 42.9 | 6-8 | -71.0 |
| Tigers | 40.7 | 22-32 | 308.0 |
| Royals | 39.4 | 13-20 | -196.0 |
| Marlins | 39.4 | 13-20 | -138.85 |
| Pirates | 37.7 | 20-33 | -320.42 |
| Orioles | 37.7 | 20-33 | -652.72 |
| Rangers | 37.0 | 20-34 | -370.91 |
| Twins | 33.3 | 6-12 | -482.99 |
| White Sox | 30.0 | 3-7 | -400.09 |
| Nationals | 30.0 | 9-21 | -902.76 |
| Rockies | 29.8 | 14-33 | -1,480.0 |
| Diamondbacks | 29.4 | 15-36 | -1,636.5 |
| Dodgers | 0 | 0-0 | $0 |
MLB Underdogs: Betting records as of June 7, 2021
While it’s still very early in the 2021 MLB season, certain teams are clearly cash cows when tabbed as underdogs. One team that will likely be vying to be king of MLB underdogs when the season concludes is the Boston Red Sox at 16-7 SU. The Red Sox are first in MLB for profits in this spot and now stand at $1,277.71 in 23 games.
The next team on the profit list is another squad from the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays at 18-12 SU in 30 games. Had you backed them with a $100 bet each time in this spot, you’d be up $1,005.52 in profit.
As it stands on June 7, there is only one team that has yet to lose as an underdog this season and that’s the Los Angeles Dodgers (who have yet to be an underdog).
MLB Underdogs Starting Pitcher Report
| Pitcher | Profit | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | 598.0 | 5-0 (100.0%) |
| Kevin Gausman | 581.0 | 4-0 (100.0%) |
| Casey Mize | 575.0 | 6-5 (54.5%) |
| Jordan Lyles | 530.0 | 6-5 (54.5%) |
| Kyle Gibson | 502.09 | 7-4 (63.6%) |
| Chris Flexen | 490.0 | 6-3 (66.7%) |
| Aaron Civale | 469.0 | 4-0 (100.0%) |
| John Means | 462.04 | 5-2 (71.4%) |
| Tyler Mahle | 456.0 | 3-0 (100.0%) |
| Adrian Houser | 382.0 | 3-0 (100.0%) |
| Danny Duffy | 372.0 | 3-0 (100.0%) |
| Brandon Woodruff | 365.0 | 3-0 (100.0%) |
| Brad Keller | 345.0 | 5-4 (55.6%) |
| Steven Matz | 333.0 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Matt Moore | 328.0 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Logan Gilbert | 310.0 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Andrew Kittredge | 306.15 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Kris Bubic | 304.0 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Michael Wacha | 297.0 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Justus Sheffield | 295.15 | 5-4 (55.6%) |
| Jose Urena | 292.0 | 5-5 (50.0%) |
| T.J. Zeuch | 290.0 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| John Gant | 289.0 | 4-3 (57.1%) |
| Chad Kuhl | 287.0 | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Taijuan Walker | 279.15 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 278.0 | 4-3 (57.1%) |
| Hyun Jin Ryu | 272.0 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Nick Neidert | 265.0 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Rich Hill | 263.0 | 4-2 (66.7%) |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 263.0 | 4-3 (57.1%) |
| Jeff Hoffman | 257.01 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Bailey Ober | 255.0 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Jesus Luzardo | 254.0 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Nick Pivetta | 247.0 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Miguel Castro | 245.0 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Marcus Stroman | 243.0 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Jose Quintana | 236.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Domingo German | 222.0 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Logan Webb | 217.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Shane McClanahan | 216.0 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Chris Bassitt | 216.0 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Trevor Rogers | 209.0 | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Jose Urquidy | 206.01 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 205.24 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Keegan Thompson | 205.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Brett Anderson | 197.0 | 4-3 (57.1%) |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 170.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 167.09 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Vince Velasquez | 166.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Sean Manaea | 163.0 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Sam Hentges | 163.0 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 155.09 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Junior Guerra | 155.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Dylan Bundy | 153.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Zach Plesac | 151.24 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Julio Teheran | 147.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Johnny Cueto | 144.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Adam Plutko | 144.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Ryan Castellani | 137.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Alec Mills | 133.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Phil Maton | 131.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Alex Cobb | 130.0 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Joe Musgrove | 127.0 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Wade Miley | 125.24 | 4-3 (57.1%) |
| Travis Bergen | 125.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Bryse Wilson | 125.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Chris Archer | 123.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Pablo Lopez | 120.0 | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Jose Berrios | 120.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Kwang Hyun Kim | 119.15 | 4-3 (57.1%) |
| Zack Greinke | 118.13 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Alek Manoah | 117.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Trent Thornton | 115.0 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Randy Dobnak | 115.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Chase De Jong | 109.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Miles Mikolas | 108.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Justin Dunn | 108.0 | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Cristian Javier | 106.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Kyle Wright | 103.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Aaron Nola | 102.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Freddy Peralta | 100.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon | 100.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Cal Quantrill | 100.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| German Marquez | 97.19 | 4-4 (50.0%) |
| Matt Harvey | 94.0 | 5-6 (45.5%) |
| Garrett Richards | 79.0 | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Zach Davies | 77.0 | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Miguel Yajure | 70.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Adbert Alzolay | 70.0 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Tyler Anderson | 56.0 | 4-5 (44.4%) |
| Ross Stripling | 56.0 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Zac Gallen | 54.0 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Griffin Canning | 52.15 | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Luis Garcia | 43.04 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Jack Flaherty | 40.0 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Collin McHugh | 40.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| James Kaprielian | 38.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Vladimir Gutierrez | 33.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Huascar Ynoa | 32.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Ian Anderson | 30.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Yu Darvish | 28.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Spencer Howard | 28.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Stephen Strasburg | 25.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Max Fried | 25.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Kohl Stewart | 24.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Charlie Morton | 18.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Taylor Widener | 17.0 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| David Peterson | 14.0 | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Ervin Santana | 8.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Dinelson Lamet | 5.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Shane Bieber | 3.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
Betting records as of June 7, 2021
A lot of handicapping for MLB revolves around starting pitching and how a team performs when a specific hurler is on the mound. Well, certain starters in 2021 have emerged as go-to bets when their team is tabbed as an underdog. Three starting pitchers in particular – Martin Perez, Kevin Gausman and Casey Mize – are raking in the profits for bettors early this season.
Martin Perez of the Boston Red Sox is the most profitable underdog starting pitcher in MLB at 5-0 in this spot with profits of $598 had you backed him and the Red Sox each time.
Kevin Gausman and the San Francisco Giants have a perfect 4-0 record when tabbed as dogs and Gausman is starting. Gausman is now the second-most profitable starting pitcher in this spot and has profits of $581 for $100 bettors.
Casey Mize of the Detroit Tigers is the third-most profitable underdog starting pitcher in MLB at 6-5 as a dog with profits of $575 had you backed him and the Tigers in this spot each time.
Just remember, this trend is only applicable when these teams/pitchers are underdogs, and doesn’t mean to blindly back the team just because that specific pitcher is on the hill.