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Archived: The OTL Weekly Report


Sep 12, 2018 EST


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Week 4 College Football Big 12 Report

The primary question all bettors need to address is whether Texas (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) can score. It has put up 10, 7, 9, and 7 points respectively in the last four meetings versus TCU (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS). Longtime Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson, in fact, surrenders just 15.7 points per game in seven career matchups. He is 5-2 SU and ATS, claiming victory by an 11.9 average margin.

The Longhorns’ offense struggles against more than just the TCU defense; it also largely ineffective versus ranked conference opponents. Since 2006, Texas posts just 23.3 points per game in this situation. The “under” is 30-12 with a 52.3 average final score staying 6.3 points shy of a 58.6 total. The passing game stumbles to just 216.6 yards on 32.7 tosses.

Texas might be lucky to reach two touchdowns. Since the start of last season, TCU has squared off against eight opponents averaging fewer than 40 points per game. It surrenders 12.6 points per contests. The Longhorns posts 31.3 through three games, but came up 5.5 and 12.5 shy of market projections against Maryland and Tulsa before rebounding for a 37-point effort in its win over USC last Saturday.

Texas stays competitive in this game only with a strong defensive effort. TCU wins 27-20. Pick “under” 50.5 for the best betting value.

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Around the Big 12 (All Games Saturday)

Akron at Iowa State (-19.5), noon ET: Unranked Big 12 teams such as Iowa State (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) are 43-9 SU and 32-16 ATS (66.6 percent) hosting MAC opponents since 1980. The Power 5 conference wins by 21.2 points per game.

Kansas at Baylor (-9.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, on FS1: This is the first game since 2016 Baylor (2-14 SU, 1-2 ATS) will kick off home chalk hosting a Big 12 opponent. Kansas (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS), meanwhile, is looking to string together three wins for the first time since 2009. For what it’s worth, the Jayhawks’ 31-7 win at Central Michigan in Week 2 as 3-point pups was their first road underdog upset since 2007. They went 1-47 and 15-30-3 ATS in their 48 prior attempts.

Kansas State at No. 12 West Virginia (-14.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN: West Virginia (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) is just 10-17 ATS (37.0 percent) at Mountaineer Field since joining the Big 12 in 2012. Kansas State (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), however, has lost all three visits to the Morgantown fortress, failing to score more than 20 points in each visit.

Army at No. 5 Oklahoma (-31.5), 7 p.m. ET: Army (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) brings its triple-option attack to Oklahoma (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) posting an efficient 4.9 yards per rush. The “over” is 22-6-2 in the last 30 matchups the Sooners lay 20-plus points to a team accruing greater than 3.5 yards per carry on the year.

Texas Tech at No. 15 Oklahoma State (-13), 7 p.m. ET, on FS1: In the last 25 years, Texas Tech (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) is 24-36-1 (40.0 percent) against ranked opponents, including going 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 matchups. The defense yields 51.5 points per game in this span. The 79 total might no be enough against Mike Gundy’s high-flying Cowboys.

Around Conference USA

Florida Atlantic at No. 16 Central Florida (-14), Friday 7 p.m. ET, on ESPN: The only prior meeting was in 2003 when FAU was still an FCS team. The Owls are 13-3 ATS away vs. winning teams. UCF is 29-20 ATS since 2009 as a home favorite.

Western Kentucky (+3.5) at Ball State, 3 p.m. ET, on ESPN3: This is the return game of last year’s home-and-home won by the Hilltoppers 33-21 at 12-point home favorites. Ball State is 15-22 ATS as a home favorite.

Florida International (+26.5) at No. 21 Miami-FL, 3:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN2: These two schools are nine miles apart and this is their third meeting. FIU is 0-2 (1-1 ATS) and faces a Hurricanes crew that is 11-1 ATS after a win by 17 or more.

Charlotte (+10.5) at Massachusetts, 3:30 p.m. ET, on ELVN: This is Charlotte’s first road game of the season and they are 7-10-1 ATS since 2015. UMass is back home after three straight road losses and non-covers, losing by 31.3 PPG.

North Texas (-13.5) at Liberty, 6 p.m. ET, on ESPN3: North Texas is off to a 3-0 (2-1 ATS) start and is 11th in scoring in the country (49.3 PPG) and third in passing offense. Liberty is 1-1 SU & ATS and is 14th nationally tossing the pigskin.

Louisiana Tech (+20) at No. 6 LSU, 7 p.m. ET, on ESPNU: This is the fourth bayou battle since 2003, with LSU 3-0 and 2-1 ATS. Bulldogs coach Skip Holtz is 30-15 ATS as a road dog in his career and LSU is 8-19 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.

Rice at Southern Miss (-14.5), 7 p.m. ET, on ESPN+: This is the conference opener for both teams. Since 2007, Rice holds a 6-2 ATS and has won outright half the time. Southern Miss is 48-30 ATS the first month of the season.

Texas State at UTSA (-7), 7 p.m. ET, on ESPN+: These Lone Star State combatants are a combined 0-5-1 ATS and Texas State has the lone victory, over FCS Texas Southern. The Roadrunners have won and covered both prior meetings but are 0-6 ATS at the Alamodome since the last home contest of 2016.

N.C. State at Marshall (+6), 7 p.m. ET, on CBSSN: Marshall has not beaten North Carolina State in four previous tries. The Thundering Herd is on a 7-0 ATS underdog run. The Wolfpack is 25-12 ATS in road games when playing with two weeks or more of rest.

New Mexico State at UTEP (+3), 7:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN3: For two bad football programs, the I-10 rivalry is intense. The Miners hold a 15-8 SU edge since 1993 and in El Paso are 10-2 and 5-4 ATS. (No lines prior to 1998.)

Around the Pac 12

Washington State at USC (-4.5), Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN: Washington State (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is a trendy against-the-spread bet in its matchup at USC (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) with 64 percent of early action backing the Cougars. Careful here. Since 2016, home favorites in Pac-12 matchups are 55-8 SU and 39-21-3 ATS (65.0 percent) overall.

Arizona (-6.5) at Oregon State, 4 p.m. ET, on PAC12: Oregon State (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS), despite owning just 11 winning seasons in the last 20 years, has dominated its series against Arizona (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) in this span. The Beavers are 13-4 SU and 13-3-1 ATS overall. In 12 contests kicking off with a single-digit line, they have won and covered the number (-0.8 avg.) in all but one.

No. 7 Stanford (-1) at No. 20 Oregon, 8 p.m. ET, on ABC: In the modern era (1980 and up), Oregon (3-0 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) is 5-2 SU and ATS with a line in-between 4 points. The Ducks average 31.7 points per game to 23.4 for Stanford (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS). The Cardinal will need more. Pac-12 away favorites are 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS when scoring less than five touchdowns as road chalk since the start of last season.

OTL sources have information on 3 particular games Saturday that you can bet your Max Bet on. No hype whatsoever. This is what we do…WIN!

 

Just like the 2 Private Plays we released Last Week in College!

Virginia (-3) over Ohio (+3) (in Nashville)

This game has added intrigue now that it has been shifted from Charlottesville to Nashville (it will played at Vanderbilt Stadium) due to the impending weather issues along the East Coast. Virginia appears to have found a quarterback. Bryce Perkins, a one-time Arizona State Sun Devil, has run for 100-plus yards in each game while combining to throw four touchdowns and one interception. The Cavs are 1–1, with a convincing win over Richmond and a 20–16 loss at Indiana. Ohio has played only one game, and the Bobcats — the preseason favorite in the MAC East — had to rally to beat a Howard team that lost to Kent State by 30 points the following week. Early Reports say OVER the TOTAL 54 is the Best Bet on the Board for this game.

FIU (-4) over UMass

FIU has played relatively well early this season, losing at home to Indiana by 10 followed by a solid 10-point win at Old Dominion. UMass posted gaudy numbers in a Week 0 win over Duquesne but has since struggled against FBS competition, losing at Boston College 55–21 and at Georgia Southern 34–13. The Minutemen have been dominated at the line of scrimmage, giving up 272 yards rushing to Boston College and 334 to Georgia Southern while gaining a total of 173 yards on the ground in those two games.  FIU has been solid already 2-0 ATS but is the number to high on this game? We don’t think so. FIU is for real and will cover with ease in this high scoring game. The Total has moved 5 Points already from 59 to 64 and with good reason. Take FIU and OVER!

 

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