NFL December Byes, Patriots/Bills, Bucs and More!
College Basketball Road tough on the road…

Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a shaky November losing three of four games. But they ran the table in December on the way to winning the Super Bowl. Two years ago, Kansas City lost four of seven games in mid-season but won all 5 December games which helped propel them to a Super Bowl title in February. The 2020 Bucs also had their bye in the first week of December as did the Patriots in 2018. Both teams used the week to heal up and soon hoist the Lombardi Trophy. In 2019, Kansas City’s bye was the last week in November. It’s a nice combo to play your best football in December while catching a late-season bye week.

Likely postseason teams this year that have their byes late in the season are Arizona, Kansas City, Green Bay, Tennessee, and New England. By contrast, Buffalo and Dallas already had theirs in Week 7, Tampa Bay in Week 9. So now we get the December stretch run where teams will try and win division titles with some of them even gaining a second bye the first week of the playoffs.

Tampa Bay didn’t have that second bye last year, but the champion 2018 Pats and 2019 Chiefs did.  For this pivotal month, Tampa Bay has a game against Buffalo next week, a potential Super Bowl preview, along with two games against Carolina.

The Bills and Panthers are 1-2 in the NFL in total defense. The Chiefs’ offense and defense struggled in the first half of the season, but Andy Reid made personnel adjustments and they’re clicking on both sides of the line. That’s especially true on defense, so pay less attention to the Kansas City defensive stats in the first half of the season and more to what they’re doing down the stretch.

The Patriots and Bills face each other twice in December, while the Ravens have to play the Packers and Rams sandwiched around a game at Cincinnati. Green Bay is primed to have a strong finish and wrap up a bye with a relatively easy schedule with games against the Bears, Browns, Vikings, and Lions. They also play four of their final six at Lambeau Field alongside a December bye.

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Basketball Road Woes: More than any other sport, there is often a huge difference between how college basketball teams play at home than on the road. Duke is the latest example, playing its first true road game of the season at Ohio State as a 3-point favorite but blowing a 15-point lead in a 71-66 loss. Ohio State’s Value City is a noisy arena and when Duke went cold in the second half, the crowd was into it…West Virginia hasn’t played a true road game yet and won’t until December 18 at UAB…Does Arkansas Pine Bluff even have a gymnasium? Two years ago the team opened by playing 16 of 19 games on the road, finishing 4-26. Last year, they played 19 road games while going 4-21. This season, they play 10 of their first 12 away from home. Pine Bluff was a 38-point underdog Saturday and lost at Baylor by almost 50. They’re 6-3 OVER the total with a defense that already looks gassed.

Football Chalk Rules! It’s been a season of underdogs in the NFL, but the favorites finally had a big weekend…to the dismay of the books. It started on Thursday when the road favorite Cowboys won and covered at New Orleans, 27-17, and continued right on through Sunday. QB Tom Brady had to throw 51 passes and chalk bettors needed all of them along with a late field goal for Tampa Bay to get the cover as an 11-point favorite, 30-17. Bettors also backed the favored Colts, Eagles, and Dolphins and didn’t have to sweat as all three rolled.  NFL totals actually moved down and the books made out much better. Bettors won as the Giants/Dolphins was bet down to 40- as Miami won, 20-9, but they lost wagering the Cardinals/Bears total down to 43-. Arizona led 21-7 at the half on the way to a 33-22 win despite QB Kyler Murray throwing for just 123 yards. 4 Chicago turnovers gave Arizona some great field position for some easy points. I had Arizona on a three-team winning teaser with Indy and Washington.

The Vikings/Lions Total went down from 48 to 46- but Detroit finally won a game in a 29-27 shootout. The lesson there: If you’re going to wager on the UNDER, make sure at least one team is good defensively. The Lions are fifth-worst in the NFL in yards allowed, the Vikings are third-worst. In addition, both are in the bottom 10 in points allowed  In college football’s big Saturday, we saw a rarity with mighty Alabama as an underdog and bettors still going against them. Georgia went from a 4- to 6- favorite over Alabama but an early 10-point lead evaporated in a 41-24 ‘Bama rout. Wiseguys on the Under and so we’re we but without that late INT it really could have been no scoring for 1 QTR and a half.

“Don’t leave them uncovered.”…Michigan went from a 10 to 12-point favorite against Iowa and rolled, 42-3. Total bettors had to sweat a late Michigan TD that put it over by a point. Much to our DISMAY! We had the UNDER!

NBA Blowouts: Quite a week for NBA start-to-finish blowouts. Portland went from a 3 to 5-point home favorite against San Antonio but the Spurs led wire-to-wire in a 114-83 rout. Portland’s All-Star guard Damian Lillard didn’t play and is out another week with an abdominal injury. Lillard did play Monday at Utah but it didn’t matter in a 129-107 loss. Portland ended the week the same way getting destroyed at home by the Celtics, 145-117. The Blazers are on a 1-5 SU/ATS run despite starting a stretch playing 15 of 19 at home…

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