Another week’s worth of games means another week’s worth of situational spots to consider in college football. Situational spots will never be the deciding factor for a bet, but they sure can be part of the handicap, as we have talked about all season long. There are a lot of games that merit additional looks week in and week out and Week 8 is no different.
We’re getting to a critical point in the season for a lot of teams. These games in the middle of the year can make or break a season because some teams face thin margins for error when it comes to making a bowl game. Seats for coaches are getting hotter with each passing week.
Here is some of that information with some situational spots to consider for Week 8:
South Alabama at Troy – This is a spot where the dog could have a little bit of bark. This is a Little Brother vs. Big Brother conference game, as Troy is usually among the class of the Sun Belt and South Alabama is trying to find its way. Troy has bigger fish to fry this season, though a spotlight game on ESPN may keep the Trojans more invested. Still, South Alabama, while not the better team by any means, could be much more focused for this rare Wednesday night affair.
Louisiana at Arkansas State – The Red Wolves defense has been embarrassingly bad this season. The offense has come to the rescue a couple teams, but has also fallen short a couple times. Louisiana has a little bit of extra rest here, while the Red Wolves are on a lot of extra rest after not playing in Week 7. Louisiana may have been taken down a peg by the loss to Appalachian State, but this is an enormous game for Sun Belt West Division championship hopes. This should be a good one with two highly motivated teams.
Ohio State at Northwestern – A Friday night game in Evanston is weird, isn’t it? Both teams are on some extra rest here, but the Buckeyes do have Wisconsin on deck next week. While Northwestern isn’t nearly good enough to take advantage of that and win the game outright, the Wildcats are getting 28 points at home. Also, the Buckeyes are very much in look-ahead mode with what will be their first legitimate test of the season on deck.
Army at Georgia State – This is a tough game on both sides. Army just went to Bowling Green, Kentucky and lost to Western Kentucky. After returning home for a week of practice and the usual in West Point, Army heads back out on the road for Atlanta to take on Georgia State. Georgia State’s offense has been quite potent of late, but will now face limited possessions against the triple-option. Of course, this spread would have been over two touchdowns before the season, but is now below a touchdown. It’s a tough matchup for Georgia State, but Army has underachieved so far.
Central Michigan at Bowling Green – Hello, BGSU. The Falcons knocked off the Toledo Rockets for the first time in nine tries to win the I-75 Trophy. That was a season saver for a Falcons team having a rough go of it. Now they have to get back to business as a home underdog against Central Michigan. This feels like a really, really terrible spot for a BG team not really going places this season. The line has moved up with CMU laying road doubles for the first time in a while, which is due in large part to this spot.
Purdue at Iowa – Can Iowa let out some frustration this week? The Hawkeyes have scored 15 points the last two weeks against Michigan and Penn State. Purdue’s bad defense is in town this week. Purdue had an out-of-body experience last week to blow out Maryland. Maybe that’s the new normal for Jeff Brohm’s team? What’s the new normal for Iowa? I guess we’ll see as they step way down in class.
Kent State at Ohio – It sure does feel like the Golden Flashes are in a much different spot than Bowling Green. The Falcons won their rivalry game as a 26-point dog. Kent State won the Wagon Wheel for the first time since 2014, but went into that game against Akron as a 14.5-point favorite. It seems like the Flashes want more and may be capable of it. Ohio is not the class of the MAC, as some expected. In fact, the Bobcats have been quite bad. This feels like a fairly decent spot for Kent State, even coming off of the win over Akron.
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Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan – The final installment of the Michigan MAC Trophy series is this week. Western Michigan can lay claim to the trophy for the fifth time in six years. Eastern Michigan has looked pretty bad in recent weeks, but this game has been decided by a field goal each of the last two years. EMU will show up in a big way here. It all depends on which version of Western Michigan shows up.
Kansas at Texas – Another loss in the Red River Rivalry for Texas. That marks four of the last five. Now Texas has a chance to let out some frustration against Kansas. Or, Texas has the chance to struggle and let Kansas hang around. It’s tough to know what the mentality of the Longhorns is after a second loss, albeit to another top-five opponent.
Wisconsin at Illinois – Wisconsin is in the same spot as Ohio State this week. The Badgers are actually laying more than four scores on the road, but that huge game in Columbus looms very large. Illinois is awful, though, so the Badgers could very well cover this number. You’ll have to factor that spot into the equation, though.
Toledo at Ball State – Nobody in the MAC is any good this season. Toledo and Ohio are used to looking down from the mountaintop, but they’re struggling to even get within arm’s reach of the summit this year. Now Toledo has to shake off the loss to Bowling Green by playing a much better Ball State team in Muncie. This spot very clearly favors Ball State, a team on the rise, over Toledo, a team on the decline.
Oregon at Washington – It’s been a while since Oregon was tested. They’ll get a test this week up in Seattle against the Huskies. Washington has been all over the place this season, losing games they shouldn’t and then blowing out teams they shouldn’t. It’s a really hard spot to know what we’re going to get from either team, but it’s fair to say that this is Oregon’s first legitimate opponent in a while.
Colorado at Washington State – Mike Leach has questioned his team multiple times this season and they haven’t really responded well. Coming out of the bye, Washington State got outgained by Arizona State, despite throwing the ball 30 more times with 18 more completions. It’s clear that Leach’s team didn’t answer the bell and it’s hard to see them answering the call this week as a big favorite against Colorado either.
Florida at South Carolina – This has become a bad spot both ways. Initially, I loved the idea of betting South Carolina here, as the Gators were off of games against Auburn and LSU. Now, South Carolina comes in off of the biggest upset since the school beat #1 Alabama at home back in 2010. With SC’s QB questions, it was going to be hard to take them anyway, but it’s entirely possible that the spot now favors a Florida team that hung in there against LSU. The Gators are off next week before the Cocktail Party against Georgia. I feel like maybe the spot is better for Florida and that’s a cheap price with SC’s injuries.
LSU at Mississippi State – This is a tough spot for LSU. After a big offensive showing against Florida, the Tigers go on the road as a 19.5-point favorite to StarkVegas. A date with Auburn is on deck for LSU. Mississippi State isn’t as good as some people expected, but this is a team with talent. We’ll see if LSU relaxes this week and if it allows the Bulldogs to hang around.
Baylor at Oklahoma State – Baylor is coming off of a double overtime game against Texas Tech. Oklahoma State lost to Texas Tech the week before the bye, but was -5 turnovers in that game. The spot sure seems to set up better for Oklahoma State, especially with a key injury on the Baylor defense, but the line is moving against the Cowboys at home in this one. The spot surely seems to favor the home chalk, though, so we’ll see if this line comes back up as the week goes along.
Michigan at Penn State – What a difference a few months makes. The Wolverines were a clear road favorite in this game over the summer with Games of the Year lines. Now the Wolverines are getting nine points in Happy Valley. This is a second straight tough game for Penn State. Michigan turned the game against Illinois into an unnecessarily tough game before pulling away late. This is a big one in State College. Michigan has Notre Dame on deck, but they cannot overlook this one with Big Ten East implications.
Air Force at Hawaii – What a huge effort last week for Air Force to bounce back from the Navy loss and blow out Fresno State. Now the Falcons make the long trip to Honolulu to take on the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii played well on offense at Boise State, but the defense was shredded. Let’s see what happens here, as Nick Rolovich’s team faces the Air Force option for the first time since 2016. Hawaii did face Army last year and played pretty well, for what it’s worth.