College Football Early Lean and POWER RATING Predictions

Michigan State +19.5 at Ohio State, over/under: 67.5. Some have expressed sticker shock at this price, but there’s nothing to indicate it’s too out of hand given the separation Ohio State’s offense has created over every other team in the country. Taking Michigan State is a leap of faith in coach Mel Tucker, who should be schematically shrewd enough to have his team hang around for a while. Michigan State +19.5.

Iowa State +4.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 60. The records may not indicate the better team here, as Iowa State is at +1.7 net yards per play against FBS opponents to Oklahoma’s .7 net yards per play. This might be the last week where the market vastly overestimates the Sooners. Iowa State +5.

Arkansas +21 at Alabama, over/under: 58. Arkansas’ pass defense might be just stingy enough to limit Alabama and avoid getting blown out. Alabama -20 was my fair number, so this spread is spot-on and the home team would be the pick if the market continues to move in Arkansas’ direction.
Arkansas +21.

SMU +12 at Cincinnati, over/under: 65. Cincinnati hasn’t seen a passing offense the caliber of SMU’s behind quarterback Tanner Mordecai all year. This was a much easier take when the Mustangs were available at +14 or higher, but still probably holds value down to +10.5. SMU +12.

Virginia +13.5 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 66. Virginia’s offense has actually been a tad more efficient than Pittsburgh’s this season, at 6.9 yards per play to 6.8. The Panthers should win this game, but the Hoos are all too comfortable in the shootout-style they often fall into.   Virginia +13.5

UAB +4.5 

UTAH -3

KANSAS ST +1

CLEMSON -3.5

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