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Archived: Chiefs only -3 Point Favs Thursday Night?


Oct 15, 2019 EST


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A pair of AFC West teams lock up in the opening game of the week 7 NFL slate in the Mile High City. The Kansas City Chiefs are on the road as they make the trip to face the Denver Broncos Thursday night. Kansas City came up a 31-24 home loser to Houston in their last contest Sunday afternoon. Denver recorded a dominating 16-0 home win over Tennessee in their previous contest Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs own a 63-54 advantage in the all-time regular season series and have taken the last seven meetings. Last season, Kansas City prevailed 27-23 on the road on October 1, 2018 and 30-23 at home on October 28, 2018.

Kansas City started the season where they left off last year but hit a speed bump of late. The Chiefs opened the season with four straight victories, rolling over the Jaguars (40-26) and Raiders (28-10) before winning a pair of close games over Baltimore (33-28) at home and Detroit (34-30) on the road. Kansas City has battled through injuries to skill position players but they’ve been held in check for long stretches in the last couple of games. The Chiefs were neutralized by the Colts in a 19-13 home loss in week five before falling to Houston at home last week. Perhaps a change of venue will help rejuvenate Kansas City.

The Chiefs got off to a strong start against Houston but wilted as the game wore on and couldn’t make clutch plays on either side of the ball late in the contest. Kansas City led 17-3 after the opening quarter but gave up 20 second quarter points to trail by six at the half. The Chiefs regained a 24-23 lead after three quarters but was ground up on a 12 play, 93 yard drive that chewed up 8:32 off the clock, leaving them down with just over six minutes to go: they gave up a two-point conversion that put them down seven. Kansas City went three and out on their ensuing possession before seeing Houston grind out the final 5:03, in part by converting a 4th and 3 coming out of the two-minute warning. The Chiefs were outgained 472-309, allowed 35 first downs while picking up 20 and were dominated in time of possession by a 39:48 to 20:12 margin. Kansas City did force three turnovers but committed a pair in the defeat.

Denver looked dead in the water after the first four weeks of the season as the team struggled to get things going for first-year coach Vic Fangio. The Broncos started the year with four straight losses, including a pair at the final gun on field goals, leaving many to wonder if this was another wait until next year for the team. Denver was beaten on Monday Night Football to open the season, falling 24-16 on the road against the Raiders. That was followed by a 16-14 home loss to Chicago on a 53-yard field goal at the final gun. Denver then lost at Green Bay (27-16) and at home to Jacksonville (26-24), again giving up a field goal on the game’s final play. Things have turned around in the last couple weeks as the Broncos beat the Chargers (20-13) before dropping the Titans: can the Broncos’ defense swarm Patrick Mahomes and company here for a third straight win?

The Broncos were aggressive defensively against the Titans and that helped them earn a second straight win. Denver’s defense carried the way in the game as the team mustered only one touchdown. That proved to be enough as Denver recorded seven sacks, intercepted three passes and held the Titans to only 39 yards on the ground with a 1.9 yard per carry average. The Broncos owned a 270-204 edge in total offense despite getting edged 12-11 in first downs and a 30:14 to 29:46 disadvantage in time of possession. Denver did force three turnovers while committing only one: Phillip Lindsay scored the lone touchdown in the game on a two-yard run while Brandon McManus booted three field goals. That was more than enough.

Our Wintrac Computer Software program which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has uncovered critical information on this matchup. Our Wintrac program is up almost $8,400 for $100 bettors already in the NFL this season. It has nailed it’s recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 7 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 31-15 run.

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