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CFB Trend Angles


Sep 19, 2022 EST


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CFB Trend Angles

Utah @ Arizona State
09-24The Utes have won and covered the last two meetings, including last October 16 at Salt Lake City when closing fast for a 35-21 win. Down 21-7 at intermission, Utah roared back with four unanswered TDs in the second half on consecutive drives in which QB Cam Rising completed 13 of 15 passes. Note that Kyle Whittingham is also now “over” last eight games away from Salt Lake City as well as 10-4 vs. spread last 14 Pac-12 games. This will be the Sun Devils’ first game since the “parting of ways” with HC Herm Edwards, with RB coach Sergio Aguano taking over on an interim basis. Aguano is well known in the Valley of the Sun from a successful run as head coach at nearby Chandler High School.

Stanford @ Washington U
09-24Some conflicting tech trends here, as the underdog side has covered the last five series meetings, but Stanford enters Seattle on a 9-game spread skid. Meanwhile U-Dub flying at 3-0 SU and vs. line for Kalen DeBoer after 2-7 spread mark previous nine at Husky Stadium.

Wyoming @ BYU
09-24These longtime WAC and Mountain West rivals haven’t met since 2016 Poinsettia Bowl won by BYU, 24-21, though Wyo covered as 10-point dog. (Remember, BYU left the MW for Indie status in 2011, though slated to return to conference affiliation as soon as next year in the Big 12.) Craig Bohl has now covered four of last five as dog after Air Force upset, and Wyo now 14-7 last 21 as dog.

USC @ Oregon State
09-24Sadly this might be one of those matchups that will disappear when SC makes its move to the Big Ten in two years, which means this might be the last visit by the Trojans to Corvallis in the foreseeable future. Maybe not too soon for SC, which has had some occasional and famous problems at Parker/Reser Stadium, and even at home in the Coliseum a year ago vs. the Beavers, who romped by a 45-27 count as they punished the soft Trojan rush defense for 322 rush yards. That was the first OSU win over Troy in Los Angeles since 1960 and a 14-0 whitewash of the Trojans in what was also John McKay’s first game as SC coach, a season in which Troy would be blanked four times. (OSU’s previous most-recent win at the Coliseum was actually in 1971 when beating Pepper Rodgers’ first UCLA edition, 34-17). Modern-day Trojan fans probably recall a couple of painful losses by Pete Carroll teams at Corvallis in 2006 (33-31) and 2008 (27-21) against Mike Riley Beaver editions, results that effectively kept SC out of the national title games in both of those seasons. But the landmark game in series history came back on November 11, 1967, when the top-ranked Trojans hit rainy Corvallis to face a Dee Andros Beavers team that was surging the second half of that season. In front of the largest crowd at the time in Oregon sports history (41,494), OSU’s roughhouse brand of football led by rugged DT Jess Lewis would stymie the Trojans, limited to runs by future (1968) Heisman winner OJ Simpson and little else, and made a 30-yard second quarter FG by PK Mike Haggard hold up for a 3-0 upset win. The Beavers’ punishing defense would pin the Trojans into their own territory and not let them escape in the second half despite the best efforts of OJ, who gained 131 of his eventual 188 yards before intermission. OSU managed enough ball control of its own behind bruising FB Bill “Earthquake” Enyart, who hammered for 135 YR, to keep Troy at bay. It completed quite a late-season trifecta for “The Great Pumpkin” Andros, whose OSU had beaten second-ranked Purdue, tied second-ranked UCLA, and beaten top-ranked SC sandwiched around a romp past Washington State in a furious stretch drive that many believed had the Beavers as the nation’s most-dangerous and perhaps best team by the end of the season. The “Giant Killers” (the subject of a past TGS Pac-12 Retrospective) would miss out on the Rose Bowl bid from the AAWU, however, because of an early-season loss to Jim Owens’ Washington Huskies and the draw vs. UCLA. OSU thus finished 5-1-1 in conference play along with UCLA, while USC, at 6-1, would win the Rose Bowl bid and eventual national crown. But count us among those who have always believed that the best team at the end of ’67 might well have been Dee Andros and his Beavers.

Hawaii @ New Mexico State
09-24Remember, these teams played twice last season! Hawaii won each but failed to cover the spread in the Honolulu game. UH was 2-5 vs. spread on mainland last season before slipping inside sky-high price at Mich on Sept. 10 after Timmy Chang lost and failed to cover first two in 2022.

Boston College @ Florida State
09-24The Noles have won and covered last three in series. Eagles have started slow 0-3 SU and vs. spread, not even able to get over spread hump FCS Maine last week, and BC also on 7-13 spread slide. FSU 3-0 SU for Norvell this season after ’Ville win, Noles have covered 7 of last 9 vs. FBS foes since mid 2021.Kansas State @
Oklahoma

09-24This was a difficult series for Lincoln Riley while he was at OU, failing to cover all five vs. K-State and losing outright to a couple of big-dog Chris Kleiman entries in 2019 & 2020. Will new Sooners HC Brent Venables fare better?

UL Lafayette @ UL Monroe
09-24Some trends worth reviewing in this hot intrastate Sun Belt rivalry, as the road team has covered last seven and is 11-0-1 vs. spread last 12 meetings!

Miami Ohio @ Northwestern
09-24Not a lot of tech positives here, as the RedHawks, even with their cover vs. Cincy last week, are just 2-9 vs. line last eleven reg season non-MAC games. Meanwhile, the Cats are only 1-4 last five as Evanston chalk and 4-11 vs. spread overall since 2021 after shock loss to the SIU Salukis last week. One series matchup of note in the past came in Northwestern’s shock Rose Bowl season of 1995 when the lone reg season loss suffered by Gary Barnett’s Cats was a 30-28 upset inflicted by visiting Miami-O in the second game of the campaign!

Charlotte @ South Carolina
09-24Slow start this season for 49ers, 0-3 SU and vs. spread out of gate, not closer than 17 in process, though they did recover to shock host Georgia State in Atlanta last week. That broke a stretch of six SU and spread losses in a row since LY.

Vanderbilt @ Alabama
09-24No Does SU wins in this series since 1984, when George MacIntyre’s Dores, in the midst of a 4-0 start that season that pushed them as high as 22 in the rankings, went into Tuscalooosa and dumped Ray Perkins’ Crimson Tide, 30-21, behind QB Kurt Page. No wins for Vandy against bama since, with the last encounter especially painful five years ago in Nashville as Nick Saban rolled up a 59-0 score on Derek Mason’s Dores that could have been worse.

Wisconsin @ Ohio State
09-24Last meeting 2019 Big Ten title game won by OSU 34-21 but a Wiscy cover. Badgers rarely a dog lately, not since 2019, though Chryst 9-5 vs. points in role since 2015. Even after Toledo blowout, Buckeyes only 12-15 vs. spread last 27 on board, and 5-7 vs. spread last eleven at Big Horseshoe.

Connecticut @ NC State
09-24After Jim Mora made a positive break from the gate at new job UConn with covers first 2 out of chute this season, the Huskies have been routed the past two weeks by a combined 107-14 (Syracuse and Michigan doing the business). Meanwhile after Texas Tech win last week, Wolfpack 12-3 vs. spread as host since 2020, 6-3 laying DDs.

Arkansas @ Texas A&M
09-24Though Arkansas has been covering games in recent years vs. A&M (now four straight) it hadn’t been beating the Aggies outright. Indeed, not since A&M joined the SEC in 2012 had it lose to the Hogs, whose last win in the series came in the preceding 2011, when the Ags still competed in the Big 12. But that changed last September 25 in Arlington when Arkansas led wire-to-wire in an eventual 20-10 triumph. A couple of big plays from QB KJ Jefferson (85 and 47-yard TD passes) staked the Porkers to a 17-0 lead in the 2nd Q and Barry Odom’s defense kept A&M at bay for the rest of the afternoon as Arkansas would roll up a 443-272 yardage edge. Note that due to Covid, the 2020 renewal of this bitter regional feud was contested at College Station instead of its usual location at Jerry Jones’ AT&T Stadium. Jones, a Razorback alum, makes sure to attend this clash each time it is held in his Cowboys’ stadium. Note last week’s non-cover vs. Mizzou State was the first time the Razorbacks haven’t covered a game in their first four of the season in the Sam Pittman era (Ark now 10-1 vs. spread in first four games since 2020).

So Mississippi @ Tulane
09-24A couple of unlikely hot spread teams, here, with USM on a 6-game uptick vs. the number and Tulane having covered five straight after last Saturday’s shocker at Kansas State.

No Illinois @ Kentucky
09-24UK’s Bob Stoops has covered last six as non-SEC host vs. FBS foes (which doesn’t count last week’s non-cover vs. FCS Youngstown State). Counting the result vs. the Penguins, the Cats are still 10-5 vs. the number their last 15 on the board.

Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama
09-24Dog away from Ruston was a good role (20-8-1 last 29) for La Tech in recent years under Skip Holtz though Cumbie lost opener at Mizzou getting points away before getting the cover last week at Clemson. Jags are 6-1 vs. line in Mobile since last year for Kane Wommack (5-0 vs. FBS foes).

Iowa @ Rutgers
09-24Hawkeyes 6-2 vs. line last eight at Big Ten visitor. Even with non-cover at Temple, Schiano II at Rutgers is 6-1 vs. spread in September, though Scarlet Knights have dropped last six vs. spread as Big Ten host.

Marshall @ Troy
09-24Herd was working on four straight covers as visitor until getting dumped at bowling Green last week, also “under” 6-3 last nine. Trojans just 1-5 vs. line last six at home.

UNLV @ Utah State
09-24Rebs 3-0 vs. line this season and now 9-3 vs. spread last 12 on board including a cover vs. Utags last season at Allegiant Stadium. Rebs have covered 6 of last 8 away for Marcus Arroyo. USU off very slow 1-2 SU and 90-3 vs. line this season after stellar 11-2 SU, 10-4 spread marks in 2021. Utags, however, didn’t have it easy in 28-24 win (but no cover) at Allegiant last season, needing a late 11-yard TYD run by Elelyon Noa with just 35 seconds remaining to secure the hard-fought win.

Rice @ Houston U
09-24Intracity Battle for the Bayou Bucket hasn’t renewed every year lately but when it has it has been advantage Cougs, who have won and covered the last six meetings. Note Rice “over” 12-3 since last season after last week’s shocker over ULL, which barely crept past the posted low-50s number.

Navy @ East Carolina
09-24Some conflicting trends here, as the Mids have covered each of last three seasons vs. Pirates, and Navy series cover streak now 5 back to 2016. Navy no wins or covers first two in a choppy start to 2022, however, but remember same thing happened out of gate a year ago and Navy roared back to cover 8 of last 10 games. Meanwhile, after last week’s Campbell romp, ECU has covered first three from gate in 2022 and has nine covers in last eleven stretching back to earlier 2021.

Arizona U @ California
09-24Arizona has curiously dominated this series lately, beating Cal six straight dating to 2010, though last year’s brutal 10-3 survival test at Tucson might deserve an asterisk. Cal admitted afterward that it shouldn’t have played the game as its roster was decimated by Covid, forcing HC Justin Wilcox to play not only without starting senior quarterback Chase Garbers, but six other starters and a total of 24 players and coaches who were unavailable. That had a lot to do with the Cats breaking what was a Pac-12 record 20-game losing streak entering the game, which wasn’t secured until Michael Wiley’s 10-yard TD run with 2:17 to play. The result prompted a storming of the field by Arizona fans who were more than two years without a win! Note Arizona has covered five times in games it lost outright since beginning of last season, and Wilcox, who has excelled in the underdog role, is just 3-10-1 his last 14 as Berkeley chalk.

Tulsa @ Mississippi
09-24Tulsa, which has ventured to scary locales such as Michigan State, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State since 2019 (and covering all four tries at those venues during that span), has covered last four as visiting dog in process. Lane Kiffin, however, is 7-4 as home chalk since taking over Rebs in 2000, and Ole Miss is also 6-1 vs. spread its last seven in reg season vs. non-SEC foes after last week’s Georgia Tech romp.

Georgia Tech @ Central Florida
09-24It’s not going well for beleaguered Yellow Jackets HC Geoff Collins, whose team was bombarded 42-0 at Bobby Dodd Stadium/Grant Field last Saturday by Ole Miss. That also marked the third consecutive spread L for GT to start the 2022 campaign and drops the Ramblin’ Wreck to 1-10 vs. the number the last 11 on the board. Ouch!

Oregon @ Washington State
09-24The Ducks have gotten the last two vs. Cougars, but series had slanted hard to WSU previous, as Cougs had covered previous ten meetings, including all eight when Mike Leach was the Wazzu coach between 2012-19.

Florida @ Tennessee U
09-24The home team has covered the last three in this SEC East feud though UT hasn’t beaten Florida outright since 2016. No different last year in The Swamp when the Gators romped 38-14 in a big night for since-transferred (Arizona State) QB Emory Jones, who passed for a pair of TDs while rushing for 144 yards. it was also the 16th win in the last 17 tries for UF over the Vols. The Gators, however, have failed to cover their last seven away from Gainesville (though 0-0 for Napier).

Notre Dame @ North Carolina
09-24This will be the third straight year these two have met, including the 2020 Covid campaign when Notre Dame played a full ACC schedule. The Domers won and covered that season at Chapel Hill 31-17 and did the same again last year at South Bend by a 44-34 count, surviving a 341-yard passing onslaught by Heels QB Sam Howell in the latter. Note ND has covered five straight as a visitor (1-0 for new HC Marcus Freeman).

Indiana @ Cincinnati U
09-24After having some spread success a few years ago, IU hasn’t been covering as many numbers lately for HC Tom Allen, including eight of nine times as an underdog last season.

Texas @ Texas Tech
09-24No shortage of scoring lately in this rivalry that dates to the days of the old Southwest Conference but appears to be winding down with the pending Texas move to the SEC. Once the Longhorns leave, fans will be missing some of the shootouts that have become legendary in this series, with the last four games not only landing “over” but pole-vaulting past it, with the last four scorelines totaling 105, 117, 73, and 75 points!

Toledo @ San Diego State
09-24The new Snapdragon Stadium in Mission Valley, adjacent to the old Qualcomm/SDCCU Stadium site, has not helped Aztecs spread fortunes, as they’ve failed to cover their first two in their new home and now 1-5 vs. the spread their last six as a host (including at temporary home Carson, 100 miles to the north, last year).

Minnesota U @ Michigan State
09-24Teams haven’t faced since 2017. Fleck has now covered six straight and 10 of last 12 dating to early 2021. Mel Tucker, however, 6-1 vs. spread last seven at East Lansing and (even with last week’s loss at U-Dub) 11-5 vs. points overall since last season, though remember just 2-5 vs. spread in shortened 2020 campaign.

UCLA @ Colorado
09-24Home team has covered last four and won SU last seven in series, but Chip Kelly 6-1 vs. spread last seven as visitor. Special game, or at least it should be, for beleaguered Buffs HC Karl Dorrell, once a key WR for a Terry Donahue UCLA Rose Bowl entry in 1983 and having caught a TD pass from Rick Neuheisel in the Bruins’ memorable 45-9 romp past Illinois on New Year’s Day, 1984. Dorrell of course also coached for his alma mater between 2003-07, and given the less than robust vote of confidence from CU AD Rick George on Sunday, some are wondering if UCLA will be the cause of another Dorrell dismissal as coach after this game. Stay tuned.

South Florida @ Louisville
09-24As the college version of the Detroit Lions, USF has managed to cover an amazing eight games in which it lost outright since HC Jeff Scott took over in Covid 2020 following his stint as Dabo Swinney’s o.c. at Clemson. Scott is only 3-21 outright, but could be getting closer to a breakthrough after last week’s bitter 31-28 loss at Florida (another Bulls SU loss…but spread win).

Baylor @ Iowa State
09-24The Bears have been getting the money lately in this series, covering four in a row, but note the home team has nonetheless won outright those last four meetings. Note Baylor is on a 10-4 spread uptick in Big 12 games for HC Dave Aranda.

Clemson @ Wake Forest
09-24This long-running ACC series ahs mostly been dominated by Clemson but has some interesting history to it, especially in the early 1980s. For the Tigers, that would mean their magical national title season of 1981 and the biggest explosion of that campaign, an 82-24 bombardment of the Deacs at Death Valley on that Halloween. Led by TB Chuck McSwain’s trio of TDs, Clemson would roll up an ACC points record and also pile up 756 yards and never had to punt when scoring on 13 of 15 possessions and turning the ball over the two times it didn’t. The next meeting, at the conclusion of the 1982 regular season in which Clemson would again win the ACC but miss bowl participation because of NCAA sanctions, had a much different twist as it was held at Tokyo’s National Stadium, site of the 1964 Olympics and for a few years the host of a late-season regularly-scheduled American college game dubbed the Mirage Bowl. Wake proved a lot more competitive in Asia than it did in Death Valley the previous year, hanging close as a 21-point dog. The Deacs would be their own worst enemies, however, turning the ball over five times to dull a 447-yard offensive effort, though the Tigers didn’t secure the win until the final minute when Jim Scott and William Devane would nail Wake QB Gary Schofield for a safety, pushing the final margin to 21-17. Not much earlier, Schofield had combined with WR Tim Ryan on an 85-yard pass-run TD with 5:38 to play to cut the margin to 19-17. Entering this Saturday, note that Dabo Swinney’s Clemson has covered its last four games away from Death Valley, and pounded visiting Wake last November 20 by a 48-27 count fueled by 333 rush yards

Duke @ Kansas
09-24This one doesn’t figure, as each of these basketball schools enter Saturday 3-0 SU and vs. the spread. For KU, it continues an uptick that commenced late last season and has seen six straight spread covers for HC Lance Leipold. This week will be the first time KU has been favored over an FBS foes since the 2020 opener vs. Coastal Carolina (while the Les Miles Jayhawks lost), and KU looks to avenge a 52-33 loss last year at Durham when the teams combined for a whooping 1137 yards of offense!

Kent State @ Georgia
09-24These paydays must be worth it for the Golden Flashes, who have already faced ranked Washington and Oklahoma on the road this season before getting thrown to the wolves (er, top-ranked Bulldogs) this week in Athens. Kent State is also 1-6 vs. spread last seven as non-MAC visitor…but the Golden Flashes aren’t ducking anybody!

Missouri @ Auburn
09-24Not much to like technically here, as Mizzou 1-6 vs. spread last seven as reg season visitor since late 2020, and Auburn 1-7 vs. line last eight since late 2021. Whew! First meeting of these SEC Tigers since 2017 when Gus Malzahn’s Auburn ripped Barry Odom’s Mizzou, 51-14.

Bowling Green @ Mississippi St
09-24After brief spread surge at start of 2021, Falcs now just 4-6 last ten vs. number, though off improbable upset of Marshall last week. BGSU was 14-31 vs. line last 45 entering the 2021 season before recovering to 8-4 vs. line a year ago. Meanwhile even after LSU loss last week, Leach on 7-3 spread uptick for MSU since mid 2021, and has covered last four laying double digits.

Central Michigan @ Penn State
09-24Some tech positives both ways here, as CMU and Jim McElwain have covered four straight away from Mt. Pleasant, but James Franklin and Penn State are 7-3 vs. spread last ten at Happy Valley, and have also covered last five hosting MAC foes at Beaver Stadium.

Maryland @ Michigan
09-24All Wolverines lately in this big Ten East series, with Jim Harbaugh winning and covering the last six vs. the Terps, all by 21 or more. Maryland’s fortunes have usually declined when Big Ten play starts under Mike Locksley, especially on the road, where Locksley has dropped 9 of his last 12 vs. the points against conference foes away from College Park.

TCU @ SMU
09-24Metroplex “Battle for the Iron Skillet” as Sonny Dykes has switched sides to TCU this season. When Dykes was at SMU, he won and covered last two against Frogs for the Iron Skillet as a dog both times. His new TCU has started quick at 2-0 and fast starts have been synonymous with Dykes whose teams are 14-3 vs. line in first five games of season since 2019. SMU 1-w vs. line for Rhett Lashlee, and Ponies just 2-6 vs. points since midway in 2021.

Boise State @ UTEP
09-23A better UTEP team than the current edition was still no match for Boise on the blue carpet last September 10. The outcome was effectively decided at halftime, by which point the Broncos already had a 41-13 edge en route to the 54-13 final scoreline, featuring 340 YP from then and current Boise QB Hank Bachmeier. Note the Miners have started slowly this season, failing to cover their first four against the spread.

Nevada @ Air Force
09-23Wild doings last year in Reno as these MW sides needed triple OT to determine the outcome. It was the Force prevailing, 41-39, though it looked for a long while that it was going to be much easier for the Falcs, who took a 24-10 lead into the 4th Q before a pair of Carson Strong TD passes for Nevada tied the game and forced OT. The eventual difference came in the third OT when action went direct to 2-point conversions, which the Force converted on a run by Deondre Hughes, who would set the Falcs’ single-game rush record on the night with 279 yards, part of a 476-yard ground onslaught by the Force. Note that even after last week’s 27-0 loss at Iowa, Pack 6-2 vs. line last seven as visitor (1-1 for Wilson). Force, meanwhile, on 12-6 spread uptick sine late 2020, and 6-2 last eight vs. points as MW host.

Virginia @ Syracuse
09-23The ACC does a good job keeping some conference members apart, like these two, who haven’t met on the gridiron since 2015. Trends to note include ‘Hoos “under” 12-4 their last 16, and ‘Cuse 9-2 vs. the spread its last 11 at the Carrier Dome.

West Virginia @ Virginia Tech
09-22Revenge time for VPI after a belated rally fell just short last September in Morgantown. Down 27-7 late in the 3rd Q, the Hokies crawled back to within six points late in the 4th Q after a 29-yard TD pass from Braxton Burmeister (now at San Diego State) to Jalen Holston, and got the ball back deep in WVU territory with just over 2 minutes to play when CB Jermaine Waller picked off a Jarret Doege pass and brought it back to the Mountie 17. But after reaching the WVU 3-yard line, the last-gasp VPI drive fizzled on a pair of incompletions by Burmeister, ending the game. Technical angles don’t provide much guidance, as the Mountaineers are just 2-7 vs. spread their last nine away from Morgantown, while the Hokies are just 1-6 vs. spread last seven vs. non-ACC foes (0-2 under Brent Pry) after last week’s non-cover vs. big dog Wofford.

Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State
09-22Nice payback win last year for GSU in Conway after getting lambasted by Coastal 51-0 the previous Covid 2020 season in Atlanta. Outgained 530-105 and out-first-downed 30-5, the Panthers were far up the track from the Chants two years ago, but turned the tables in exciting fashion last season, as nose tackle Thomas Gore wrapped up Coastal’s Shermari Jones short of the goal line on a two-point conversion with just over a minute left to secure the 42-40 win, which was GSU’s first-ever vs. a ranked opponent (the Chants entered ranked 22). Note road team has won and covered last three meetings and is 4-0-1 vs. spread last five clashes.

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