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Archived: How has the AP Top 25 done ATS in L5 Seasons in October


Oct 02, 2018 EST


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A Handicapping Look at AP Top 25 NCAAF ATS, Totals Records in October Last 5 Seasons

#1—Alabama (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) went 10-9 ATS in October from 2013-2017. The Crimson Tide are at Arkansas (Oct. 6), host Drew Lock and Missouri (Oct. 13), are at Tennessee (Oct. 20; ALA 6-2 ATS L8) and have the fourth Saturday of the month off. Alabama has beaten the Razorbacks 10 straight SU and the Volunteers 11 in a row.

#2—Georgia (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) was an anemic 7-10 ATS in its L5 Octobers, going 0-4 ATS in 2015. The Bulldogs host Vanderbilt (Oct. 6), are at LSU (Oct. 13) and face Florida at EverBank Field in Jacksonville (Oct. 27), getting the 20th off.

#3—Clemson (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) has gone a terrific 18-2 the L5 Octobers, but a fade-worthy 7-12-1 ATS (36.8%) and is 0-4-1 ATS its L5 October games heading into this October. The Over was 9-11 in the 20 games with all 4 games going Under in 2014 (all 3 October 2017 Clemson games also went Under). The Tigers—now with Kelly Bryant seeking a transfer—are at Wake Forest (Oct. 6; 0-4 ATS L4) and FSU (Oct. 27; 3-1 ATS L4 Road), host NC State (Oct. 20; 2-6 ATS L8) and get Oct. 20th off.

#4—Ohio State (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) is 9-10 ATS, going 2-1 ATS in 2017, 1-4 ATS in 2016, 2-2 ATS in 2015, 2-1 ATS in 2014 and 2-2 in 2013. The Buckeyes will host Indiana (Oct. 6)—a team that it has beaten a remarkable 22 straight times—and Minnesota (Oct. 13) in two very winnable games before heading to West Lafayette, Indiana on Oct. 20 to face Purdue. Brutus Buckeye and OSU have a Bye on Oct. 27.

#5—LSU (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has W5 straight October games but the Tigers are just 11-7 SU in he month over the L5 years, going 9-8-1 ATS, the Push coming in its last October game last year vs Vanderbilt (LSU -7, LSU 34 VANDY 27). The Bayou Bengals are at Florida (Oct. 6), then host Georgia (Oct. 13) and Mississippi State (Oct. 20; 0-4 ATS L4) before getting Oct. 27 off to buy miniature Snickers bars and prepare for #1 Alabama the following Saturday (Nov. 3).

#6—Oklahoma (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) has been below average in October over the L5 seasons, thanks to a 1-6 ATS run from 2013 to 2014, going 9-12 ATS (16-5 SU) with the Over (14-7) being the strongest Trend over that time. Of note to gamblers, Oklahoma has played Texas (in the Red River Showdown) every October from 2013-2017 with the Longhorns covering all 5 meetings ATS (OKLA 3-2 SU). This October, Oklahoma plays Texas (Oct. 6, FOX 12 pm ET/9 am PT), at TCU (Oct. 20) and hosts Kansas State (Oct. 27) with a Bye Saturday on the 13th.

#7—Stanford (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) is a powerful 14-5 the L5 Octobers with the Cardinal posting an 10-8-1 ATS mark and going 5-14 (O/U) in the Totals market with the L5 Stanford October Toals all going Under the closing number. This month, 2017 Heisman Trophy runner-up Bryce Love and the Cardinal will host Utah (Oct. 6), head to Arizona State (Oct. 18) and host Washington State (Oct. 27) with a week of Rest on Oct. 13, so with a Notre Dame game at South Bend their last September (29th) and a trip to Washington their first November (3rd) game, the Cardinal have a very tough Fall on tap with absolutely no easy games.

#8—Notre Dame (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has been exceptional in October over the L5 seasons, going 13-4 SU and ATS (76.5%)—the Under was 11-6 in those games—with the Fighting Irish pulling off two perfect 3-0 SU/ATS Octobers overs that span (2013, 2017). Notre Dame only had one October with back-to-back ATS Losses—10/8/16 vs NC State and 10/15/16 vs Stanford—the Fighting Irish’s opponent in South Bend in NCAAF Week 5.

#9—Penn State (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) has gone a very respectable 10-6-1 ATS in recent Octobers, including a profitable 6-0-1 ATS the L7 (2017, 2016). Trace McSorley and the Nittany Lions get the first Saturday in October off before hosting Michigan State (Oct. 13; 1-4 ATS L5), heading to Indiana (Oct. 20; 3-0 ATS L3) to face the Hoosiers and then welcoming Iowa to Happy Valley (Oct. 27; 3-1 ATS L4).

#10—Auburn (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) has been really impressive in Octobers, going 12-4-1 ATS the L5 years (75%) including two perfect 4-0 ATS Octobers (2013, 2016). This season the Tigers/Plainsmen/War Eagles will be at Ole Miss (Oct. 6) and Mississippi State (Oct. 20) in tough tests, host Tennessee in-between (Oct. 13; 1-3 ATS L4 Home) and get their Bye week on the 27th with Texas A&M, #2 Georgia and #1 Alabama in the Iron Bowl on tap in a nasty November. Best of luck with that lot.

#11—Washington (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) has gone 9-8 SU and 7-10 ATS in October with all three games in October of 2017 going Over and all four games in October of 2015 going Under. Jake Browning and the Huskies will play all four Saturdays in October: at UCLA (Oct. 6; 2-6 ATS L8 Away) at Oregon (Oct. 13; 2-5 ATS L7), vs Colorado (Oct. 20; 8-0 ATS L8, 4-0 ATS L4 Home) and, at Cal (Oct. 27; 3-1 ATS L4), so if the OT loss in Eugene didn’t blast them from the CFP picture, October certainly will.

#12—West Virginia (3-0 SU/ATS) and Heisman hopeful Will Grier are 9-10 SU the L5 Octobers with an 0-3 2013, a 4-0 2014 and an 0-4 2015 over that span. Against The [Point] Spread (ATS), the Mountaineers went 6-11, including an 0-4 ATS mark in that aforementioned 2015 season. The Under has trended strongly in WV October games, going 11-7 with a perfect 4-0 2014 and 2016 seasons. The Mountaineers will host Kansas (Oct. 6; 1-3-1 ATS L5), head to Iowa State (Oct. 13; 4-0 ATS L4), host Baylor (Oct. 27; 0-3 ATS L3) and get the 20th off.

#13—Central Florida (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are 13-7 SU and a respectable 11-8-1 ATS the L5 Octobers (12-8 O/U) and this season—it won all 4 games last year and lost all 5 in 2016—McKenzie Milton and the Knights will host SMU (Oct. 6; 3-0 ATS L3 Home), travel to Memphis (Oct. 13; 0-3 ATS L3 Away) for a monster battle with the Tigers,then to East Carolina (Oct. 20; 4-1 ATS L5, 3-1 ATS L4 Away) before getting the 27th off.

#14—Michigan (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) has gone 13-5 ATS and 7-10-1 ATS in its 18 October games since 2013, playing 13 Overs and just 5 Unders (72.2%). This year, Shea Patterson the Wolverines welcome Maryland (Oct. 6) and Wisconsin (Oct. 13) to the Big House before heading to Michigan State (Oct. 20; 0-10 ATS L10) to play for for the Paul Bunyan Trophy (MICH 69–36–5) in a game the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook currently has the Wolverines priced as 3-point favorites for their Big Ten-Great Lake State showdown in East Lansing. Big Blue will have the [Oct.] 27th off.

#15—In the L5 Octobers, Wisconsin (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) is one of two schools found to only have played 2 games in October in one of the seasons (2013), and the Badgers have gone an impressive 14-4 SU but just 10-8 vs. the betting number with 7 Overs and 11 Unders. This October, Jonathan Taylor and Wisconsin play all four Saturdays with Big Ten tilts vs Nebraska (Oct. 6; 5-2 ATS L7) in Madtown, at Michigan (Oct. 13; 4-0 ATS L4), vs Illinois (Oct. 20) then at Northwestern (Oct. 27; 1-3 ATS L4).

#16—Miami Florida (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) has gone 12-8 SU and 8-12 ATS with 13 Overs and 7 Unders in their L20 October games. Jeff Thomas and the Hurricanes will host Florida State (Oct. 6; 1-5 ATS L6 Home) and then be at Virginia (Oct. 13; 1-4 ATS L5) followed by a trip up to Boston College (Oct. 26; 5-1 ATS L6, 3-0 ATS L3 Away), getting Oct. 20 off. Miami Florida HC Mark Richt (16-13 ATS) is now 46-15 SU vs conference opponents and 35-4 as a favorite of 2 or more points after the #16 Hurricanes 47-10 blowout of North Carolina on Thursday night in Miami Gardens (MIAMI -18).

#17—Kentucky (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has gone 8-10 SU and ATS he L5 Octobers with a 10-7 record in the Totals market. The upstart Wildcats are at Texas A&M (Oct. 6), host Vanderbilt (Oct. 20; 2-5 ATS L7) are at Mizzou (Oct. 27) with a Bye the 20th.

#18—Texas (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) is 9-10 SU and just 10-9 ATS the L5 October, despite all that aforementioned success against Oklahoma (5-0 ATS). The Longhorns will face the Sooners in their annual Red River Rivalry on Oct. 6 before hosting Baylor (Oct. 13; 3-0 ATS L3), getting their Bye week (Oct. 20) and then heading to Stillwater to face Taylor Cornelius and Oklahoma State (Oct. 27; 3-1 ATS L4 Away).

#19—Oregon (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) has gone 12-8 SU and 11-9 ATS in October with an 11-8 mark in the Totals market and this 10th month of the calendar year, Justin Herbert and the high-scoring Ducks (41.3 ppg, #18) will host Washington (Oct. 13; 5-2 ATS L7), be at Wazoo (Oct. 20; 0-8 ATS L8, 0-4 L4 Away) and at Arizona (Oct. 27; 1-4 ATS L5 Away) after getting the first week off.

#20—BYU (3-1 SU/ATS) is 11-8 SU and 9-10 ATS (9-10 O/U) the L5 Octobers with Tanner Magnum and the Cougars (23.3 ppg #89) at Home at LaVell Edwards Stadium (Grass) i Provo for all three October games: Utah State (Oct. 6), Hawai’i (Oct. 13) and Northern Illinois (Oct. 27) with a Bye on the 20th, so nobody will have a better Site edge (100%) and less Travel in October (0 miles) than will Brigham Young.

#21—Michigan State (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) has been a team that wins games lately in October, compiling a stellar 15-6 SU mark (71.4%, perfect 4-0 Octobers 2013-2105), but the Spartans are an underwater 10-11 ATS over that span (11-10 O/U). MSU is on duty all four October Saturdays in 2018 facing Northwestern at Home (Oct. 6; 1-3 ATS L4), Penn State on the Road (Oct. 13; 4-1 ATS L5), Michigan (Oct. 20; 10 ATS L10) at Home and Purdue at Home (Oct. 27; 0-4 ATS L4). Bye-bye Top 25 ranking?

#22—Duke (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) has gone 9-8 SU in October but a handsome 10-6-1 ATS and a Trend-noticeable 4-13 in the Totals market, meaning that betting Blue Devils Unders in October over the L5 years has hit at a 76.5% clip. Duke gets the first Saturday off then is at Georgia Tech (Oct. 13; 4-0 ATS L4), hosts Virginia (Oct. 20; 7-3-1 ATS L11) and then is at Pitt (Oct. 27; 0-3 ATS), a good month with the Ramblin’ Wreck (1-3) and Panthers (2-2) both looking down this NCAAF Regular Season.

#23—Mississippi State (3-1 SU/ATS) has gone a pretty 12-5 SU but 8-9 ATS the L5 Octobers playing in the SEC with 7-10 Totals record, thanks to three straight Unders in 2017. This campaign the Bulldogs have a nightmarish October slate with Auburn visiting Davis Wade Stadium (Grass) on Oct 6, a game at Death Valley vs LSU (MSU 4-0 ATS L4) the following weekend (Oct. 20)—after a Bye week on the 13th to heal wounds and bruises—before hosting Texas A&M in Starkville (Oct. 27) and then demanding a week in an oxygen tent rejuvenating their Third Bulldog-eye chakras.

#24—Cal (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) may see a fleeting moment in the Top 25 with Oregon on tap in Week 5, but the Golden Bears have gone an abysmal 5-15 SU and 8-12 ATS over that span and a noticeable 6-13-1 ATS in the Totals market in those L5 Octobers. Ross Bowers and the Golden Bears are at Arizona (Oct. 6; 5-0 ATS L5), host UCLA (Oct. 13; 3-1 ATS L4) are at Oregon State (Oct. 20; 3-1 ATS L4) then host Washington (Oct. 27; 1-3 ATS L4) in a trying but possibly winnable four games.

#25—Texas Tech (3-1 SU/ATS) has played the most games (21) of Top 25 ranked (AP) teams over the past five Octobers with HC Kliff Kingsbury (33-28-1 ATS) and the Red Raiders going 9-12 both SU and ATS and 13-8 (O/U) in the Totals market over that time frame. This year, Alan Bowman and Texas Tech gets the opening weekend of the spooky month off before heading to TCU (Oct. 11), hosting Kansas (Oct. 20; 4-1 ATS L5)—TT is 15-1 SU all-time vs the Jayhawks, winning 11 straight meetings—and then heading to Ames to play Iowa State (Oct. 27), all in Big 12 conference play.

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