March Madness, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, is a whirlwind of excitement that grips fans every spring. Kicking off with Selection Sunday on March 16, 2025, and culminating in the National Championship on April 7, this three-week spectacle is a betting bonanza. With 68 teams vying for glory, the unpredictability fuels both its allure and its challenge for bettors. But amidst the chaos, are there reliable betting trends that can guide your wagers? This article explores historical patterns, key statistics, and expert insights to help you navigate the 2025 tournament .

The Power of Seeding Trends

Seeding offers a starting point for understanding March Madness outcomes. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, top seeds have dominated the early rounds. No. 1 seeds boast a 154-2 record against No. 16 seeds, with upsets only in 2018 (Virginia) and 2023 (Purdue). No. 2 seeds are nearly as bulletproof, going 145-11 versus No. 15. These stats suggest betting on top seeds in the Round of 64 is a safe play, though spreads can be hefty—often 20+ points.

The No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup, however, is a goldmine for upset hunters. Since 2012, No. 12 seeds have gone 19-24-1 against the spread (ATS) and 19-25 straight-up (SU), with at least one advancing in most tournaments. In 2024, No. 12 seeds like James Madison stunned No. 5 Wisconsin, highlighting this trend’s persistence. Dig into team form and matchup specifics rather than blindly backing the underdog, but this pairing consistently offers value.

First-Round Betting Patterns

First-round games set the tone for March Madness betting. In 2024, favorites went 21-11 SU and 18-13-1 ATS, with double-digit favorites excelling at 12-2 SU and ATS. This suggests oddsmakers are sharp early, but underdogs still cash—especially between +7 and +12 points. Since 2015, first-round underdogs are 136-115-2 ATS (54.2%), with 67 winning outright.

Totals also reveal tendencies. Early games (1 p.m. ET or before) since 2011 hit the under 62% of the time, possibly due to nerves or conservative play. In 2024, top-four seeds crushed it, going 14-2 SU and 12-3-1 ATS, reinforcing their reliability. Bettors should weigh these patterns but cross-check with current team stats—past trends don’t guarantee future results.

Championship Pedigree and Late-Round Clues

What about the road to the Final Four and beyond? Since 2002, 88% of Final Four teams ranked top-50 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom). In 2025, this points to contenders like Auburn, Duke, and Houston, all excelling in these metrics. Another nugget: every champion since 1985 reached at least their conference tournament semifinals. Teams like Creighton or Kentucky, bounced early in conference play, might be riskier title bets.

Coaching experience matters, too. In Final Four matchups since 1979, coaches with prior appearances are 42-30 SU against debutants, though ATS records are closer (37-34-1). UConn’s Dan Hurley, a 2024 champ, could leverage this edge if the Huskies return. These trends narrow the field but require context—upsets like 2023’s No. 9 Florida Atlantic reaching the Final Four defy the norm.

Conference and Regional Trends

Conferences can signal strength. The Big East has claimed 4 of the last 10 titles, while the SEC and ACC also boast recent success. In 2025, Auburn (SEC) and Duke (ACC) lead futures odds at +350, reflecting conference prowess. The Mountain West, however, struggles—8-16 ATS since 2016 and 2-26 SU as double-digit seeds. Bettors might fade teams like San Diego State if they land tough draws.

Regionally, neutral-site performance hints at tournament readiness. Teams with strong non-conference records at neutral venues—like Gonzaga or Tennessee—often translate that to March success. Conference realignment (e.g., UCLA to the Big Ten) muddies historical data, so focus on current season trends over decades-old patterns.

FAQs About March Madness Betting Trends

Are upsets more common in certain rounds? Yes, the Round of 64 sees the most chaos—think No. 15 St. Peter’s over No. 2 Kentucky in 2022. By the Sweet 16, top seeds reassert control.

How do oddsmakers adjust trends? They bake historical data into opening lines but tweak based on betting action and team news. A hot Cinderella can shift odds fast.

Should I trust public betting trends? Not always. Since 2016, teams with 60%+ of spread bets are 56-80-5 ATS—fading the crowd can pay off.

Putting Trends to Work in 2025

So, are there March Madness betting trends worth considering? Absolutely—seeding matchups, first-round stats, and championship profiles offer a roadmap. Auburn’s efficiency and Duke’s Cooper Flagg hype make them favorites, but a No. 12 seed like Murray State could crash the party. Trends from Twitter chatter highlight fan buzz around upsets, though details remain speculative without specifics.

Blend these patterns with real-time analysis—team injuries, recent form, and matchup quirks. The tournament’s magic lies in its unpredictability, but smart bettors can tilt the odds. Wager wisely, enjoy the madness, and may your bracket—and bankroll—survive the chaos.