Heisman Trophy odds for the 2024 season got a mid-summer bump, still more than six weeks before the season begins. The impetus for that bump: A run of sharp bets on Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Gabriel was already near the top of board in odds to win the Heisman Trophy. But he’s now more firmly on the heels of Texas QB Quinn Ewers and Georgia QB Carson Beck.
Here’s everything you need to know about the latest on 2024 Heisman Trophy odds: action, movement and betting trends.
Heisman Trophy Odds
Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel, right, is taking sharp bets to win the Heisman Trophy.
The SuperBook opened its Heisman Trophy futures odds market in February. While Gabriel was very much in the mix, he wasn’t seeing early action.
“We initially opened him 10/1, and we moved him out because we took a lot of action on other guys. He was 14/1 from February up until Sunday night,” SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson said. “Then we took some sharp action at 14/1, so we moved him to 12/1. We took some more sharp action and moved to 10/1. And then we took a little more at 10/1, too.”
The end result: Gabriel is now the +900 third choice at The SuperBook. Ewers and Beck are the +800 co-favorites.
“Obviously, the market said we raised him too much,” Michaelson said of the QB who arrived at Oregon via the transfer portal in December. “He’s been good at Central Florida and at Oklahoma. This is probably the best offense he’ll have been in. You saw where Bo Nix got at Oregon, right there with a chance to win the Heisman.
“I’m sure that’s why people are looking at Gabriel that way.”
Opportunities to Shine
Oregon is no longer in the Pac-12, which dissolved after the 2023-24 season. The Ducks move into the now 18-team Big Ten, along with their former Pac-12 rivals Washington, Southern Cal and UCLA.
Last year, Oregon went 12-2, with both losses coming to Washington, one in the regular season and one in the Pac-12 title game. Washington went on to reach the College Football Playoff championship game, where the Huskies lost to Michigan 34-13.
A new conference brings greater exposure for Oregon in general and, with respect to Heisman Trophy odds, Gabriel in specific.
“I think Oregon is gonna be pretty good again. Obviously, it’s a tough schedule in a new conference. But I have nothing negative to say about Gabriel,” Michaelson said. “He’s gonna have the opportunities, he’s gonna have the stage. Oregon plays Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Washington over the last seven weeks of the season.
“If Gabriel plays well and they win those games, he’s gonna be right there for the Heisman.”
More Moves Coming
The shifting has barely begun in odds to win the Heisman Trophy. Perhaps Ewers, Beck and Gabriel remain right near the top. Maybe Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe (+1200) steps to the fore, or Ohio State QB Will Howard (+1600), who was at Kansas State and left via the transfer portal.
Someone a little further down the Heisman odds board could jump up, as well. The one certainty: There will be a lot more movement once games begin.
“Because we opened this market so early, it’s interesting to see how it evolves,” Michaelson said. “It’s gonna change so much in the first month of the season. In September, some of these guys are gonna be 200/1, and somebody could be 2/1.
“Clemson plays Georgia in the season opener. If Beck has a big game, that catapults him. If Cade Klubnik has a big game for Clemson in an upset, he catapults.”
Klubnik is currently the +4000 co-14th choice at The SuperBook.