With the Big Ten and ACC now 18 teams, plus the Big 12 and SEC beefing up to 16 apiece, we found myself wrestling a bit with how to place power-conference teams from about the No. 60 spot and below.

Will we see the 79 teams from the power conferences (Big East has 11 and is also in that class) all mostly wind up as top-100 teams in most ratings systems by season’s end? Will most of the 79 work their way into the top 70? Is the deck going to prove to be stacked that much in their favor?

Or will a dozen-or-so mid-majors break through and find themselves ranked in the top 60? I think that’s still possible, and my predictions reflect that, but if it skews toward the big boys in massive ways, I’ll take that into consideration a year from now. I want to see how this new world of mass high-major expansion impacts the universe of college hoops, however that winds up playing out.

Once more unto the breach, away we go!

1. Alabama

In what feels like a wide-open season just over the horizon, I’m taking a team at No. 1 with the preseason national player of the year; a team that brought in one of the best transfer classes of the offseason; a team that is adding multiple five-star freshman; and a team that had the No. 2-ranked offense last season en route to the Final Four. Alabama.

The Tide are in the rare spot of having the men’s basketball band ranked higher in the preseason than the football fellas, just the eighth time that’s happened and the first time since 2006. (Bama football was No. 5 in the preseason.) Alabama, of course, is coming off its first Final Four in school history. Now it’s going to try to become just the fourth SEC school (joining Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky) to make back-to-back Final Fours. Remember, the Tide was wicked unpredictable on defense last season, but survived in the NCAAs despite that, beating trendy Charleston and 30-win Grand Canyon before upsetting No. 1 UNC and then pushing past Clemson in the Elite Eight. Ultimately, Alabama lost by 14 to UConn in the national semis, which was the Huskies’ smallest margin of victory in the NCAAs.

Nate Oats did this after losing his entire staff the previous offseason, in addition to the Brandon Miller debacle. Now he’s got one of the strongest rosters in the sport, led by CBS Sports Preseason Player of the Year Mark Sears. The inventive lead guard averaged 21.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists. Returning with Sears are two more fifth-year guys: Grant Nelson (11.9 ppg) and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (8.9 ppg), in addition to promising 6-11 sophomore Jarin Stevenson. Oats picked up notable transfers Chris Youngblood (15.3 ppg at South Florida), Houston Mallette (14.7 ppg at Pepperdine), Clifford Omoruyi (10.4 ppg at Rutgers) and a quisling in former Auburn guard Aden Holloway (7.3 ppg).

Oh, and there’s also two five-star freshmen in play: power forward Derrion Reid and center Aiden Sherrell. Bama has a loaded nonconference schedule (it plays Purdue, UNC and Houston, all top seeds last March, plus Illinois, Rutgers and Creighton, in addition to hosting a lot of really good mid-majors; it only has six non-con home games, the lowest of any high-major team in the country), so there’s a chance the Tide accrues some losses that affect their standing in the human rankings. But I’m expecting this team to be a No. 1 seed and a clear title contender from Game 1. If Sears plays to expectations and the offense remains elite, this will be the best Alabama team in school history.

2. Houston

A program that has finished No. 2 at KenPom.com three years running, so let’s slot it right there again. Houston’s averaged a nation-leading 30.2 wins the past six seasons, amassing 13 NCAA Tournament victories in that span. It hasn’t lost more than five league games in a season in that span, including postseason play. The Cougars moved from the American to the Big 12 last season, and not only was there no drop-off whatsoever, the team seemed emboldened by its conference upgrade. A year ago, UH lost a First Team All-American (Marcus Sasser), only to produce another: Jamal Shead. Now Shead is gone (and had he not ripped up his ankle against Duke in the NCAAs, it’s all too conceivable Houston would’ve been at the Final Four in place of NC State).

The Cougars’ next player in line for All-American status is senior L.J. Cryer, who averaged 15.5 points last season and should show his best yet. The Coogs also bring back proven players Emanuel Sharp (12.6 ppg), J’Wan Roberts (9.5 ppg), Ja’Vier Francis (6.0 ppg) and Joseph Tugler — a key defensive presence whose season ended in February. There’s also Terrance Arceneaux, also coming back from injury and whose time surely must be coming. Milos Uzan, via Oklahoma, will be productive in a supporting role that won’t require him to be an alpha. Kelvin Sampson’s a proven commodity in college hoops. The Big 12 might be the best conference in the sport again, and while Kansas is rightfully getting a lot of No. 1 buzz heading into the season, I’ll slightly side in that league with the program whose defense has been more reliable in the past half-decade than any other in college basketball.

3. Kansas

We’re going to see a lot of good three-man cores this season, but Kansas could have the best in the sport: Hunter Dickinson, KJ Adams Jr. and Dajuan Harris Jr. They’re all back and each does a variety of things different from the other two that will, again, make Kansas a national title threat. KU was supposed to be that a season ago, but the Jayhawks faced injury issues and withered down the stretch, finishing 27th at KenPom, its all-time low-water mark in that metric’s 28-year database. The Jayhawks have reinforcements coming in, and the outlook is optimistic because AJ Storr (Wisconsin), Rylan Griffen (Alabama) and Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State) are all proven scorers AND shooters. Griffen could be near the top of the list of best 3-point snipers if his trajectory translates. KU also has top-20 prospect Flory Bidunga, a center, and four-star guard Rakease Passmore coming in. No Elmarko Jackson, though; he’s out for the season with patellar tendon injury he suffered in June.

The Jayhawks’ biggest problem last season was depth. At one point, Self told me, he seriously debated whether or not to play his five best players together for about 36 out of 40 minutes in a game — and hockey-sub five bench players and try to survive that way. He never did it, but it would have been a fascinating approach. This team, knock on wood, will not need to be kept together with lattice. Dickinson is a preseason First Team All-American in this, his final season of college eligibility. Everything is in place for another great run in Lawrence.

4. UConn

Most others in this scenario wouldn’t sniff the top 10, solely because of the amount of unproven players that are going to step into new roles and more prominent tasks in Storrs. But UConn is different. Dan Hurley is even more different than different. I’ve got the Huskies at No. 4 because the program kept Hurley and won the angsty sweepstakes against the Lakers. The coaching staff is still entirely intact, too. And Alex Karaban, a two-time national champion as a starter on both teams, turned down the NBA for one more year in order to chase NCAA history. That’s enough to give the Huskies the benefit of the doubt and place them this high heading into the season. Connecticut lost four starters (Tristen Newton, Donovan Clingan, Cam Spencer, Stephon Castle) who’ll likely be replaced in the starting lineup by Hassan Diarra, Samson Johnson, Solo Ball and Liam McNeeley. The first three are returnees and McNeeley earned CBS Sports Freshman All-America honors. One guy who’s probably going to earn a fair share of starts is Jaylin Stewart. Connecticut also picked up lead guard Aidan Mahaney from Saint Mary’s.

The two most recent back-to-back champions were Florida in 2007 and Duke in 1992. In the subsequent seasons, Florida went 24-12, made the NIT and was 8-9 vs. SEC opponents. It never reached No. 1 in the AP poll in 2007-08. The 1992-93 Duke team finished 24-8 and went 10-7 vs. ACC opponents. It lost to Cal in the second round of the NCAAs. The Devils spent five weeks at No. 1. Relatedly, we polled 100-plus coaches this summer and asked if they thought UConn would make a third straight Final Four: 68% said no. But the fact 32% said yes is incredible.

Hurley is the face of college basketball and one of the most prominent coaches in American sports. He is operating at the peak of his powers, and knowing him, he’s obsessed with proving people wrong and is probably sounding klaxons over being put fourth on this list. It will be absurdly difficult to win three national titles in a row. I can’t wait to see this version of UConn and how the story plays out over the next five months.

5. Duke

Another year, another loaded Duke roster? Yes, but this one includes the most hyped incoming prospect in a generation. Although Zion Williamson became a transcendent sensation, he wasn’t expected to be a First Team All-American when he started at Duke; he wasn’t even the highest-rated prospect on the team. (RJ Barrett AND Cam Reddish were both ranked above Williamson in 2018.)

Now, Cooper Flagg, the CBS Sports Preseason Freshman of the Year, represents Duke’s chance to recapture the nation’s attention. He could be the best player in the sport … but he’s also got a lot around him that may lead to a different reality. Flagg’s certainly regarded as the top NBA Draft prospect heading into November. Fortunately, he’ll have veterans to acclimate him, most notably junior point guard Tyrese Proctor, sophomore guard Caleb Foster and grad senior Mason Gillis, who comes by way of Purdue, bringing a lot of winning experience with him from West Lafayette, Indiana.

Jon Scheyer enters Year 3. The pressure will be significant. He’s done a really good job through the first two campaigns, but these next five-to-six months seem destined to feel a lot different. Expectations will be to win the ACC, then get a top-two seed in the NCAAs and to make the Final Four after coming one game short last spring. Proctor has to be more consistent. Flagg’s fellow freshmen are all ranked top-30: Isaiah Evans, a lanky 6-foot-7 wing; Khaman Maluach, a 7-1 center from South Sudan who played in the Olympics; Kon Knueppel, a 6-5 shooting guard who might be the skeleton key for this offense; Pat Ngongba (currently dealing with a foot injury), a 6-10 power forward (the idea that he could be the eighth- or ninth-most important player on this team speaks to how loaded Duke is); and Darren Harris, a 6-4 shooting guard who most fan bases would be doing cartwheels over if he was on their roster. Scheyer also has Tulane transfer Sion James (14.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 38% from 3-point range), who will get a lot of run. Can Duke win big despite having so much youth, and how much youth will they rely on? The Blue Devils will be a national story every week, and whether you like, love or hate them, that’s a good thing for college basketball.

6. Baylor

For the third straight year, I’m higher on the Bears than just about anyone you’ll find. It’s working out for me: BU has had a No. 1- or No. 3-seeded résumé the past five years (counting 2020 when that season ended). Scott Drew lost a LOT from last season, and he’s also had some coaching turnover on his staff, but until I see true drop-off in Waco I’m not bailing on Baylor as a top-10 program. This year, I’ve slotted the Bears second in the Big 12 and easily in the Final-Four-contenders discussion. Drew will have to account for losing another lottery pick one-and-done guy (Ja’Kobe Walter) by … bringing in another lottery pick one-and-done guy (VJ Edgecombe). There is a workable chance Edgecombe winds up leading all freshmen in scoring. He’s receiving buzz already for how dynamic his game is. Real star potential. Whether he should or will be tasked with being Baylor’s leader is another matter. Langston Love (11.0 ppg) and Jayden Nunn (10.5 ppg) are the two prominent guys back for the Bears. They’ll play with Duke transfer Jeremy Roach in the backcourt. Roach has said he wants to be a pure point guard in this Baylor scheme. If that happens and he’s an elite decision-maker, then Baylor will be a top-10 team. The Bears also got a crucial transfer in fifth-year player Norchad Omier, who flew up from Miami.

Baylor’s varying looks will be interesting. I expect a lot of small-ball with Omier at the 5, flanked by Edgecombe at the 4, Langston at 3, Nunn at the 2 and Roach playing the 1. If Omier plays power forward, then junior Josh Ojianwuna will step in at center. Robert Wright III and Jason Asemota are two more fresh bodies (and freshmen) who will see some time. Be patient with the Bears. No high-major team has a tougher first two games. They’re playing Gonzaga in GU’s backyard on opening night, then facing Arkansas in Dallas five days later. St. John’s, UConn and Tennessee (potentially) are also on the schedule. Then it’s Big 12 time. Similar to Alabama, this team could be better than its loss total indicates.

7. Purdue

Lose the best player in school history and stay a top-10 team? That’s what great culture and elite coaching will do for you. That’s what Purdue has. The only school to win more games over the past three years than Purdue is the one I have ranked at No. 2. The Big Ten — now a ridiculous, nobody-asked-for-this 18-school union — feels as hodgepodge as ever. But I’ll take the Boilermakers to emerge at the top again. Three starters are back, the most important being Braden Smith, who could become a top-three point guard if this offense regenerates properly, Doctor Who-style, without Zach Edey. Purdue, in total, has 46% of its scoring back from last season’s team that made it to the national championship. Look for Trey Kaufman-Renn to be THE breakout player in the Big Ten. In two seasons he’s averaged 4.5 and 6.4 points. That number should double, minimally. Caleb Furst is also likely to bust from his shell.

But this is Purdue, so let’s talk centers. Who are the new towers in play? There’s Daniel Jacobsen (7-4) and Will Berg (7-2). The Jesse Pinkman memes about Painter continually recruiting alien-sized players will continue apace once the games get going. Purdue has rostered a 7-footer 13 years in a row which, for all we know, is an all-time NCAA record. (If you know of a school that’s had a 7-footer for 14 straight seasons, please find me.)

Here’s an intriguing note from Purdue: The team brings back 60% of its starting minutes from a season ago. Why does that matter? This is the 11th time under Painter that Purdue has brought back that much year-over-year. The eight most recent times Purdue brought back “at least 110 starts” from the year before, Purdue made the Sweet 16 in six of those seasons. Its winning percentage in those eight seasons: .789. That’s really, really good. And given the growth of Smith and Fletcher Loyer, it should signal stability in the foggiest power conference in college basketball. Purdue has 113 league wins the past eight seasons. No high-major team claims more. Its Big Ten reign will continue by winning a fifth conference title in a nine-year span.

8. Tennessee

The Volunteers had the second-best player in college basketball last season. Dalton Knecht will go down as one of the best up-transfers in college hoops history. From Northern Colorado to SEC POY. And Tennessee made a fun run to the Elite Eight before losing to the best player in college basketball. Rick Barnes not only lost Knecht, but also Jonas Aidoo, Josiah-Jordan James, Santiago Vescovi and Tobe Awaka. It’s a lot! Maybe Tennessee suffers a plummet and proves to be, like, the eighth-best team in the SEC. But I’m gonna zag on that theory.

I’ll stick with the Barnes formula and register UT as the No. 2 team in the league. Critically, Zakai Zeigler’s leadership at point guard is still in play in Knoxville. Zeigler can be a top-20 player nationally, buttressed by the fact that he’s probably a top-10 defensive guard (at 5-8, no less). Zeigler’s going to be at his best physically this season, and he’ll pair in the backcourt with a North Florida transfer who hopes to be the next Knecht. His name is Chaz Lanier and he shot 44% from 3-point range last season while averaging 19.7 points. I like him to easily average double digits in the SEC.

Barnes also brought on Felix Okpara from Ohio State, a quick-twitch center who could threaten to average three blocks and is a major reason why Tennessee will still be regarded as an SEC contender. I like sophomore J.P. Estrella to have a breakout season. Unclear whether he’ll start in November, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if he was hearing his name called in pregame by February. Due to the SEC’s depth, accurately predicting even the 1-5 order of this league will be near-impossible. But until I see Tennessee significantly drop under Barnes, the Vols (as a regular-season operation) deserve the benefit of every doubt.

9. Gonzaga

Mark Few is feeling revitalized. He’s coming off his time with Team USA at the Olympics, where he served as an assistant on the gold-medal winning team. It’d be no shock if Few picked up a few extra tricks from Steve Kerr and deployed some fun stuff in his offense in the months forthcoming. The Bulldogs are dinged slightly by the unfortunate loss — for the second year in a row — of small forward Steele Venters. The Eastern Washington transfer suffered an Achilles tear less than a year after rupturing an ACL. He figured to be a double-digit scorer.

This being Gonzaga, I still think the Bulldogs find a way to have one of the best offenses in the sport for the ninth straight season. Graham Ike (16.5 ppg) will probably have the best season of his career; the timing is great considering this is his last one. Same goes for Ryan Nembhard, a fringe preseason All-America candidate who could threaten to average 15 points and 7 assists.

Gonzaga has 81.4% of its minutes back from 2023-24, seventh-most in the country, according to BartTorvik.com. The only high-major program bringing back more is Notre Dame, per Torvik, and the only other two in the top 25 in terms of power-conference programs are Houston and Marquette. In bringing back more than 80% of the team’s minutes, continuity should provide an easy transition and a likely 18th straight season with 25-plus wins. Guys like Nolan Hickman, Ben Gregg and Dusty Stromer should all play increased roles, while Pepperdine transfer Michael Ajayi (absolute hooper) and Arkansas import Khalif Battle (on his fourth school in four years, no less) reinforce GU’s firepower and experience factor. The question is: Have we seen Gonzaga at its best, or does Few have another Final Four-level team in him? This one seems to have a shot. Fortunately, we don’t have to wait to see the goods. The Zags play Baylor on opening night, thankfully giving college hoops a true marquee matchup to tip off the season.

10. North Carolina

There’s split opinion on how viable North Carolina is after losing one of the most productive players in school history, Armando Bacot, in addition to saying goodbye to double-digit scorers Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan. The most important player was RJ Davis, and lucky for UNC, the First Team All-American is using his COVID year for one last dance. Asking Davis (21.2 ppg) to recreate his impact from his senior season will be tough, but he might not have to in order to keep North Carolina in the top two in the ACC.

Davis has company in the backcourt with familiar teammates Elliot Cadeau (expect a much better player this season), Seth Trimble and Jae’Lyn Withers coming back to Chapel Hill. Belmont transfer Cade Tyson (16.2 ppg) brings shooting reinforcements, while Vanderbilt big Ven-Allen Lubin is going to play with Jalen Washington to hopefully keep UNC’s frontcourt somewhat respectable. UNC’s lack of interior presence is the elephant in the room when we discuss the Heels’ chances of being a national title contender.

Ironically, I’m in on Carolina as a top-10 team because of its top two freshmen. It’s counterintuitive in this final year of the bonus COVID year to think that 18-year-olds could be linchpin-type players, but that is setting up as the case here. Ian Jackson was ranked No. 8 in his class. The 6-5 2-guard from the Bronx could be a streaky shooter, but he’s going to be a lot of fun as a potential sometimes-starter. Drake Powell (No. 11 in the class of 2024) is a guy I can’t wait to watch. Powell’s a strong wing, someone who could prove to be a high-level defender right away. It wouldn’t surprise me if those two wound up being top-10 freshmen.

UNC fell short of a second Final Four in three years under Hubert Davis, despite being a No. 1 seed, thanks to slamming into high-octane Alabama. Asking this group to build top-20 formats in offensive and defensive efficiency (which seems plausible as far as I’m concerned) should equate to Carolina again being in the Final Four mix. Things get going early: Nov. 8 at Kansas is a wonderful matchup in the first week of the season. Then UNC will test itself in Maui in that loaded field before eventually facing the likes of Alabama, Florida and UCLA in December. This team is going to take losses but will solidify itself to tussle with Duke atop the ACC.

11. St. John’s

Let’s just buy the ticket and take the ride. This is admittedly an aggressive spot for the Johnnies, who are coming off the shocking non-inclusion to the NCAAs. Not just that — St. John’s wasn’t even in the first four out after giving UConn its closest game in all of March and April. The Red Storm went 20-13 with a 4-10 record in Quad 1 and 3-1 in Quad 3. It wasn’t enough. Now it needs to be better than an 11-9 team in the Big East that’s sitting in fifth. I think it clears that bar with ease in ’24-25. Rick Pitino is going to be a mad scientist making sure this team is nowhere near the bubble, despite the departures of Daniss Jenkins, Joel Soriano, Jordan Dingle, Chris Leldum and Nahiem Alleyne. They merely combined to average more than 57 points per game no biggie. My favorite conspiracy theory is Pitino went to Kentucky’s Big Blue Madness and donned a UK sweater, whipping up multiple fan bases into a tizzy, knowing all the while he’s got a team that’s going to kill it this season.

So, who’s stepping up? RJ Luis (10.9 ppg) is the most important returnee, though I’d bank on Simeon Wilcher (2.8 ppg) quadrupling his scoring output in his sophomore season. He was a good team player, but now it’s time to embrace a much more prominent role. Not as prominent as Kadary Richmond, who crossed enemy lines and made the switch from Seton Hall to SJU. Richmond will be on the short list of preseason Big East player of the year honors after averaging nearly 16 points at the Hall and scoring more than 1,200 points in his career. I think he’s a dark horse choice for NPOY, too. Richmond will be set up by a great portal get in Deivon Smith, who averaged 13.3 points, 7.1 assists and 6.3 rebounds at Utah. Just a huge add there.

Another key name is Vincent Iwuchukwu, who could benefit from a change in scenery after giving it an honest go the past two seasons at USC, following his heart scare in the summer of 2022. Look for Iwuchukwu to back up Zuby Ejiofor at the 5 and for North Texas 4-man Aaron Scott to be the first player off the bench. I love the talent blend and obviously trust the coaching. This could be UConn’s biggest challenger in the Big East, and after last March’s fireworks at MSG, who doesn’t want to see more of that?

12. Wake Forest

Longtime readers know (and love?) my penchant for taking a few big swings every year in my top 25. Similar to St. John’s, I am all the way in on Wake Forest: Top 15 Team. I’m just as in on the idea that lead guard Hunter Sallis will become a First Team All-American after bypassing the NBA Draft. Sallis averaged 18.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and shot 40.5% from 3 last season. He’s the latest transfer to downright thrive in Steve Forbes’ system. Did Forbes land his transfers based on his reputation for being a portal whisperer?

“Oh, without question — because they were offered way more money by other people,” Forbes told me last season. “You have to have some (NIL), you can’t just come in here empty handed. But, Hunter made a business decision. He did his homework.”

Sallis’ jolt of confidence has Wake Forest’s fanbase feeling more beatific heading into a November than it’s been in a decade-plus. Sallis is super-receptive to coaching, has an insatiable work ethic and everyone in the program follows his lead. This year, Sallis carries Wake into the upper echelon of the ACC and gets the Deacs to the NCAAs, snapping the school’s eight-year drought. He returns alongside another key Deacon, Efton Reid. If Reid can avoid foul trouble, he could emerge as one of the best bigs in the conference. Cameron Hildreth is also back in the starting lineup, effectively playing a third guard. The point? That will be Ty-Laur Johnson (Louisville), but given this is Wake, new bodies abound. App State transfer Tre’Von Spillers will play the 4, while Omaha Biliew (Iowa State) and Davin Cosby (Alabama) will also be getting plenty of run in their new surroundings. When Wake Forest is wrecking teams, remember who was first aboard the ship.

13. Marquette

Like pretty much every Marquette fan, I’m a convert to the notion that Shaka Smart is in the perfect place for what he wants to achieve in his career. The Golden Eagles are averaging 25 wins per season through Smart’s first three years. I think they hit that number in Year 4 … but I also must draw attention to the reality that this will be Smart’s first season at MU without Tyler Kolek in the locker room. His leadership and presence helped cement the foundation for Smart’s vision of a reborn Marquette program. Now Kolek’s off in the NBA and soon to be playing in a building he once won a championship in: Madison Square Garden.

The Golden Eagles should still be one of the Big East’s best because they do in fact return their leading scorer. Kam Jones and his 17.2 points per game are still here, flanked in the backcourt by Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross. Underestimate that troika at your own peril. Forward David Joplin is also back, and yeah this is the place where I remind you that Smart opted not to bring in a transfer yet again. He’s making it work. Against the rip tides of the sport, Smart is pulling this off. (Big man Ben Gold is about to have a breakout season as well, you can practically smell it.) If this prediction proves correct and Marquette winds up with a No. 4 seed or better for the third straight season, Smart’s going to be able to charge outrageous public appearance rates to speak at coaching clinics across the country. They’ve got something really strong going, and with nearly 73% of the team’s minutes still here from a season ago, it’s more than fair to give this lot the benefit of the doubt following two seasons in which they finished 13th and 10th at KenPom.

14. Arizona

After three seasons and 88 wins in the Pac-12, Tommy Lloyd now takes his high-octane offense into the Big 12. The Wildcats figure to be one of the five best teams in that outstanding conference — something reflected in the preseason AP Top 25, where Arizona ranked fifth among Big 12 teams but was still ranked 10th. (Damn.)

It’s practically unheard of to have five returning All-Americans in college basketball in this generation, but that’s what we’re getting. One of those five is the final Pac-12 (As We Knew It) Player of the Year: Caleb Love. He’s back for one more season, which means Arizona will be irresistible to watch. Love had some really good moments last season, in addition to the expected dose of Anything Could Happen On This Possession (Watch Out!). Also returning: Jaden Bradley (love his defense; crazy underrated player) and KJ Lewis (big breakout potential as a sophomore). Those three will be Arizona’s backcourt, and they’ll start alongside 7-2 sophomore Motiejus Krivas and Horizon League POY Trey Townsend, who helped Oakland to that charmed Cinderella run.

Lloyd should get some frontcourt insurance from Tobe Awaka, who arrives after playing for Tennessee. Reports out of Tucson also indicate Anthony Dell’orso and Henri Veesaar have been absolute studs, with freshman Carter Bryant exceeding expectations, too. It will be enticing to see how this team adapts to the Big 12. Is Arizona going to come in and be as good in its first year the way Houston was last season? That wouldn’t be a shock, but I’m going to stop short of that. I like a team in the 3-5 seed range that yet again will rank near the top of the most watchable offenses in choops.

15. Kentucky

This is going to feel refreshing for everyone. John Calipari’s time at UK needed to end. He did a lot of great things there, but the program was aching for a reboot. In comes affable alum Mark Pope, and what a flip this has been. Big Blue Nation went from despondent to delirious over the course of 48 hours after his hiring became public, a fan reaction reversion the likes of which I can’t ever recall. So, how will the Wildcats look under new management?

Pope has seemingly assembled a 10-deep roster without holding on to a single player who was in uniform in Lexington last season. My best guess at the opening day starting five: Kerr Kriisa (WVU transfer), Lamont Butler (SDSU transfer), Andrew Carr (Wake Forest transfer), Jaxson Robinson (BYU transfer) and Amari Williams (Drexel transfer). Those five combined to average 60 points last season. First off the bench figures to be 3-point specialist Koby Brea, who might even play his way into the starting role. Brea’s commitment to UK solidified this roster’s validity as top 25-quality.

Pope also has Ansley Almonor (16.4 ppg at Fairleigh Dickinson), Otega Oweh (11.4 ppg at Oklahoma) and Brandon Garrison (7.5 ppg at Oklahoma State), with Garrison’s long-term potential being a building block for the Pope era. Freshmen Collin Chandler, Travis Perry and Trent Noah will give the UK staff a deployment that’s deeper than just about any roster Calipari had at Kentucky. (Notice I didn’t write “more talented.”) With games against Duke, Gonzaga, at Clemson and vs. Ohio State in the CBS Sports Classic, the Wildcats will be tested regularly. I can’t wait to see how this behemoth of a program is reborn with a vastly different personality calling the shots.

16. UCLA

I got to spend an afternoon this spring at UCLA, and one of the big takeaways for the year ahead was how connected and mature the group was in Westwood. Mick Cronin needed this, you’ll recall, because he was as vocally critical of his team as any coach last season. (To the point where some in college basketball wondered if he was looking for a way out. UCLA went 16-17 and was a huge letdown. Cronin had never been so out of answers.)

Turns out, things weren’t so bad as to have a roster revolt. Three players that combined to average 37 points last season are back: point guard Dylan Andrews, shooting guard Sebastian Mack and small forward Lazar Stefanovic. UCLA is also bringing back the 7-3 Aday Mara who, with Zach Edey gone, will be among the tallest players in the sport. There’s more, of course. UCLA actually had NIL resources during this past cycle, so expect Cronin to go 10-deep thanks to bringing on five transfers that averaged double-digit scoring, led by Tyler Bilodeau (14.3 ppg at Oregon State) and Dominick Harris (14.3 ppg at Loyola Marymount).

From 2020-23, Cronin had offenses that ranked 11th, 12th and 21st in efficiency at KenPom. Last season it cratered to 152. I’d be shocked if this group didn’t at least get into the top 40 and with a team that is more 3-point reliant than any of Cronin’s previous squads at UCLA. There might be some small sacrifice on the defensive end (which Cronin will understandably resist), but it’s a worthwhile trade-off to get UCLA back into the top-25 conversation. I’m bullish on the Bruins in their first year in the Big Ten.

17. Creighton

The Bluejays clear a preseason top-20 designation thanks to getting resolute big man Ryan Kalkbrenner back for a fifth and final season. Kalkbrenner is the early automatic frontrunner for Big East defensive player of the year, which doubles in selling him as a top-five defender in the sport. (He’s won DPOY in the Big East three years running and will tie Patrick Ewing’s mark of four in a row if he does it again.) Big Kalk averaged 17.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.1 blocks for a borderline top-10 team. It won’t be easy, but mark me down for it: He betters all of those numbers in ’24-25.

Fortunately, Kalk is back with Mason Miller and Steven Ashworth also returning to the fold. That’s critical in Creighton’s quest to capture top-three status in the Big East for a sixth time in a seven-year stretch. It won’t be easy due to the losses of Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander, both of whom are now in the NBA. And I wonder about CU’s depth. The big portal get was Pop Isaacs, who averaged 15.8 points in a clattering season at Texas Tech. Isaac Traudt should be a growth prospect as a movable 4-man in Greg McDermott’s system. Every year we get a handful of teams that are capable of only playing seven guys yet maintain nationally ranked status. I think the Jays are going to clear that bar, extending one more year in what’s unequivocally been the best stretch of success in program history.

18. Michigan

Switching from Juwan Howard to Dusty May is going to be a near-180 culture overturn in Ann Arbor. Howard ultimately closed himself off to too many people and became too stubborn in trying to run a program. It redounded negatively on him to the point where AD Warde Manuel was effectively forced to go back on his word and fired Howard in March. In comes May, who won 126 games and averaged 21 wins in his six seasons at Florida Atlantic, which is outstanding considering the embarrassing lack of history and resources he embraced when he got that job in 2018. Michigan won out over Louisville and Vanderbilt for May’s services, and I’m ranking U-M higher than just about anyone because the transfer haul feels like an ideal combo of size, shooting, speed, athleticism and proven commodities.

Only one player followed May from FAU: center Vlad Goldin. He’ll play alongside Yale transfer Danny Wolf, who could wind up as one of the five best up-transfers in college hoops … if Goldin doesn’t rank ahead of him. Wolf can play the 3, 4 or 5 and is an A-level passer, screen-setter and space eater on the interior. Michigan also landed the underrated Sam Walters from Alabama, entering-his-prime Roddy Gayle Jr. from Ohio State, two-way competitor Rubin Jones from North Texas and sneaky-good 3-point contributor Tre Donaldson from Auburn. EvanMiya.com ranks Michigan’s transfer class No. 5, which I might argue is too low. Scottie Pippen’s son Justin is a freshman on this team, and the return of shooting guard Nimari Burnett and combo forward Will Tschetter should give May what he had at FAU: a roster that reliably is 10-deep and full of basketball-obsessed team players.

19. Boise State

I’m always good (or bad) for a smattering of zesty prognostications, so here’s another. Boise State winning the Mountain West and becoming a top-20 crew feels as thrilling of a preseason call as almost any I’ve got listed. Leon Rice is over the moon at having a point guard who’s his ideal kind of floor general. His name is Alvaro Cardenas. He was an intra-conference foil for Rice; Cardenas played for Tim Miles at San Jose State and averaged 13.2 points, 5.5 assists and shot 39% from 3-point territory. And he should be the key to unlock Boise State’s latest NCAA Tournament team — and its first NCAA Tournament win in school history? We’ll see. No program has made more Big Dances without a victory than the Broncos (0-10).

BSU’s best player is Tyson Degenhart. One of many instances where a high-major player is playing for a team outside the power-conference structure. Degenhart, a 6-8 senior, is the most practical preseason pick for MW POY. He might average 20/night on his way to becoming an NBA pick in 2025. Degenhart will again suit up alongside O’Mar Stanley, an undersized 5 who nevertheless played his way onto the all-league second team last season. On first glance, Boise State’s roster doesn’t shout “best in the Mountain West,” but the buy-in at point guard and the physicality and versatility in the frontcourt has me believing in the Broncos.

20. Indiana

How big of a step back was last season? Consider that Indiana State finished 38th at KenPom, while IU was all the way at 91 and well out of the NCAA Tournament conversation. Despite making the Big Dance in years 1 and 2, Mike Woodson enters Year 4 on uneasy ground after the frustrations that sprouted like weeds emerged a season ago. The Hoosiers shouldn’t even entertain outcomes that threaten Woodson’s job security, though, not with the roster he’s put together. IU brings back a 15-point-per-game guy in Malik Reneau (15.4 ppg), a 10.6 point-per-game vet in Trey Galloway, plus a likely sophomore burst from Mackenzie Mgbako (12.2 ppg).

The Hoosiers, operating with a healthy NIL budget, also recruited Oumar Ballo from Arizona and Myles Rice from Washington State (two top-100 players), in addition to some others, like Kanaan Carlyle, who I’m eager to see in new surroundings after a nondescript season at Stanford. The 3-point shooting (or lack thereof) is a glaring concern, but most everything else screams top-20 roster. Can IU do it? Can it finish as a top-25 team for the first time in almost a decade? I can’t shake the feeling this is going to be a noisy season (and that can be a good thing in many respects) for Woodson’s program. One major letdown is the nonconference schedule, which is sorely lacking in must-see matchups. It also will give Indiana a lot less slack come conference play if IU falls short of winning the Battle 4 Atlantis.

21. Iowa State

The Cyclones were unquestionably a top-10 team last season. The defense rated No. 1 at KenPom. The Clones destroyed inferior opponents on the regular and deserved a top seed instead of the No. 2 they got on Selection Sunday. That said, as I do every year (to varying results, yes!), I have to fade some teams in order to heavily buy in on some others in against-the-grain fashion. Mark me down for having ISU scootch back a bit in the bloated, beastly Big 12.

The starting five will be led by one of the best guards in the country, Tamin Lipsey, who should be much more respected and discussed — to the level he deserves — by the time we get to Christmas. Lipsey will be flanked in the backcourt by senior Keshon Gilbert, who led the team in usage last season and probably will again this year. T.J. Otzelberger also brings back one of the more promising sophomores in the Big 12, Milan Momcilovic, who will play the 3. In the frontcourt, Saint Mary’s transfer Joshua Jefferson and Charlotte newcomer Dishon Jackson will likely be starters. I’m wondering about the reliability up front, which is why I’ve opted to slightly sell on ISU’s outlook. Overall, there’s little question about this team’s NCAA chances and its defensive pedigree. They can win ugly, but few care about style when the Ws rack up. This school should be dancing for the fourth straight year which would mark only the second time in program history that’s happened.

22. Illinois

10, 23, 14, 4, 8, 6, 6, 20. That’s the final KenPom ranking for the No. 2 Big Ten over the past eight seasons. Illinois might be No. 2 this season, but it has been No. 2 (and sometimes No. 1) in the Big Ten over the past five seasons. Brad Underwood has a program humming, and that’s a fact because he’s made a habit of losing all-league guys and not falling too far behind. He’ll carry on without Terrence Shannon Jr., Coleman Hawkins, Marcus Domask, Quincy Guerrier, Dain Dainja and Luke Goode. That’s tons to overcome, but I have faith he’ll do it thanks to some stars in the making that should find new life in Champaign. It will start with a guy I’ve been told has been insanely good in practice: freshman lead guard Kasparas Jakucionis. The Lithuanian could be a 2025 lottery pick. He’ll join forces with Kylan Boswell, who averaged 9.6 points and 3.6 assists in a hot-and-cold two-year run with Arizona. Those two are the key, and they’ll have help from Ty Rodgers and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, both of whom need to emerge as more consistent contributors. Carey Booth is a fledgling talent who couldn’t get it going at Notre Dame. I like his chances to be a solid piece off the bench. Underwood also will bank on Ben Humrichous (14.7 ppg at Evansville) and Tre White (12.3 with Louisville) being minutes-eaters alongside two top-30 freshmen in 3-man Will Riley and 5 Morez Johnson. Illinois can be both the surprise and the reliable, pragmatic choice as a top-four finisher in the Big Ten.

23. Florida

The tempting sleeper in the SEC. Todd Golden’s Gators return three players (Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard in the backcourt, Alex Condon as a big) who averaged 20-plus minutes last season. They’ll all be starters alongside transfers Alijah Martin (FAU) and, most likely, Rueben Chinyelu (Washington State). Martin committing to UF was a big-time add; he’s an opportunistic scorer and is going to be one of the best man-to-man defenders in the SEC. With his Final Four pedigree, Martin figures to rise Florida’s floor. Sophomore forward Thomas Haugh has also made huge strides in the offseason and will be the sixth man at worst.

Clayton’s savvy playmaking ability will likely lead to him being a top-four lead guard in the SEC. He’s high-IQ, no doubt, and now the goal is to perk his 3-point accuracy from 36% and change to that ever-coveted 40% threshold. The Gators haven’t yet returned to that upper-echelon SEC program that they could claim for a good portion of Billy Donovan’s time, but Golden has the temperament and intellect to get there.

24. Kansas State

Surprising though it may seem, Kansas State is now one of the biggest players in the transfer market. That was proven when Jerome Tang’s program landed what’s acknowledged as the most expensive portal get of 2024: Coleman Hawkins. The price? North of $2 million. The longtime Illinois stretch 4 will need to be one of the 20-or-so best players in American to both validate his NIL tag and lift K-State to top-25 status. I believe he will, and that’s why I have the Wildcats ranked accordingly.

Tang also brought on Achor Achor from Samford, Dug McDaniel from Michigan, Ugonna Onyenso from Kentucky and Max Jones from Cal State Fullerton, where he quietly/reliably averaged 15.3 points. Villanova transfer Brendan Hausen also will play north of 20 minutes per night. It’s a big roster changeover, one of the starkest of any Power Five program that didn’t undergo a coaching flip in ’24. Tang was heavily courted by Arkansas but turned down the Razorbacks. He’s where he wants to be and no question has the talent to get back to the Big Dance after missing out last year.

25. Arkansas

Who amongst us can’t wait to see John Calipari’s final phase in Fayetteville? The Razorbacks’ new coach returns just one player from the Eric Musselman regime, but he’s a key one: Trevon Brazile. The stretchy 4-man opted to stick around for a rebuild that has some attention-grabbing parts.

DJ Wagner followed Calipari from Kentucky, as did Adou Thiero and Zvonimir Ivišić. The latter two will be complementary pieces who could shine from time to time, but it’s Wagner that seems to be the key. He took a backseat last season, despite starting, because of the dazzling play from Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. Those two are now in the NBA. Wagner hopes to be there a year from now, but the thing is, his style is close to Johnell Davis, who was an 18.2 ppg guy at FAU last season and is also on the Hogs’ roster. That duo needs to learn to play off each other to give Arkansas a shot at landing in the top four of the SEC. And that’s before taking into account that freshman Boogie Fland is also going to want the ball in his hands. Fland arrives alongside Karter Knox and Billy Richmond, all three switching allegiances from Kentucky shortly after Calipari fled for Hog heaven.

Defensively, the Razorbacks will be viable for one man above all others: Jonas Aidoo. The Tennessee transfer averaged 11.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and was subsequently feverishly recruited in the portal. The class ranked No. 6 in the sport, per EvanMiya.com. To the shock of nobody, Calipari has recruited an enviable cluster of talent. He will have to embrace some late-career reinventions in order to dodge the flare-up of disappointments that became toxic in Lexington. Whether he’s capable remains to be seen. But given who he convinced to follow him to Arkansas, this team has no excuse not to be one of the 30 best in college hoops.

26. Michigan State

The last time MSU had a seed better than No. 7 was 2019 (though it would have been either a No. 2 or No. 3 in 2020). We’re waiting on the return of vintage Michigan State. Will it happen in 2025? How many years does Tom Izzo still want to do this? Two more? Five? Whatever it is, I do expect Sparty to qualify for a 27th straight NCAA Tournament and for this team to be embedded in the strong and deep second tier in the Big Ten.

A lot of pieces return from a 20-15 squad that ranked top-20 at KenPom. In fact, MSU is pretty well-stocked, considering Tyson Walker, Malik Hall, A.J. Hoggard and Mady Sissoko are all gone. Jeremy Fears, Jaden Akins (he’s the key) and Tre Holloman all return and will combo for a three-headed backcourt that I’d like to see push the issue a lot more than last season’s unhurried scheme. In the frontcourt, Coen Carr and Xavier Booker ready for their sophomore close-ups, and it sounds like Jaxon Kohler’s role should spike.

The roster looks like one breakout candidate after another. Plus, a family tree has been planted. Jase Richardson, a freshman, is the son of a guy who carries a pretty great legacy in East Lansing: Jason Richardson. Good group. Given it’s Izzo, I openly admit to the very real possibility that I’ve under-ranked his group, I just want to see it come together before putting MSU into the top 25.

27. Auburn

The best news here is Johni Broome has a real chance to challenge a rival player on a rival team, Alabama’s Mark Sears, for SEC Player of the Year. Broome averaged 16.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 2.2 bpg and was a 55% shooter for a 27-win Auburn team that finished (HELLO!) fourth at KenPom. Yes: fourth — despite losing to Yale in the first round —   the best finish in school history, even if the Big Dance result didn’t correlate. (Nugget: 2018 Virginia and 2016 Michigan State are the only other teams to ever lose in the first round and finish top-five at KenPom.)

Now Bruce Pearl has a group with sites set again on winning the SEC, though as you can see I’m a seller on that idea. Every year there are a few teams ranked in the preseason that prove to be overshots, and I’ll take a chance Auburn applies here. I already know the tut-tutting from Auburn fans is going to follow me well into the season. I’ve accepted it. For reasons hard to foresee, some teams just take steps back. Chad Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones return, and those two should be double-digit scorers alongside Broome. Furman’s JP Pegues, who dropped 18.4 a night last season, will also squeeze in here as a viable option in Pearl’s offense. The transfer class isn’t great, though: EvanMiya ranks this class 70th in the country and second-worst in the SEC, a league so stacked that surprise results are unavoidable. And given how good Auburn’s schedule is (Houston, the Maui Invitational, Duke, Ohio State, Purdue; it’s loaded) in the noncon, it’s going to take on some losses before what I think will be one of the toughest SEC slates in the conference.

28. Xavier

Sean Miller instantly steered Xavier back toward its typical realm of success in his first season (a No. 3 seed and a Sweet 16 run), but last year was a humbling downgrade. X went 16-18 and battled health issues en route to a forgettable campaign. For Year 3, the Musketeers have some dark-horse potential in the Big East, even despite the loss of starting center Lassina Traore, who is already done for the year with a knee injury.

However, Zach Freemantle will be 24 years old and get a fully healthy final season, which should lead to him being among the best bigs in the Big East. Freemantle is, essentially, a returning starter. The only other player that’s true of is Dayvion McKnight. The fifth-year senior averaged 12.4 points, 4.8 assists, 3.7 rebounds and shot 37.2% on his 3s. Because Xavier was a non-factor, McKnight was probably one of the most underrated players in the Big East. He’ll shine. The Musketeers brought in Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell, who could be Souley Boum-esque in terms of his impact. Excellent shot-taker who averaged nearly 17 points for a witty Sycamores squad last season. Toledo transfer Dante Maddox Jr. is also in line to start, given his numbers last season (15.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 40.2 3-pt%). Given Miller’s coaching acumen and the fact there are 10 players on this roster who are juniors, seniors or fifth-year players, it would be a semi-stunner if X wasn’t easily in the NCAAs.

29. Memphis

It’s wild times at Memphis these days, which is to say: everything’s normal. Penny Hardaway’s program is under NCAA investigation again, it’s unclear what said investigation will lead to, and it’s undetermined if Hardaway’s actually on the hot seat or not. He made unusual late-offseason staff changes.

The Tigers missed the NCAAs in March. Fan engagement is spotty, due in part to school administrators passing on an opportunity to leave the American for the Pac-12. (For now?) This is not a well-run outfit at present. But what about the basketball players? With Houston out of the conference, Memphis is the king of the league and is my pick to be the AAC’s best — despite losing five key pieces.

Hardaway’s most important add would seem to be Tyrese Hunter, the former Iowa State and Texas point guard who is a reliable jump shot and two inches away from being an NBA Draft pick. He’s going to team up with Tulsa transfer and top-shelf scorer PJ Haggerty. The frontcourt will feature a familiar name: Moussa Cisse is boomeranging back to the Tigers for his final season; he’s a great rim protector and should help with Memphis’ signature defensive edge. Dain Dainja comes by way of Illinois. I think he’s a great get. The champion of the American should be a top-30 team. Based on talent, Memphis is the logical pick.

30. Cincinnati

The Bearcats will break through in Year 4 of Wes Miller’s regime and make the NCAAs, ending a drought that dates back to 2019. Miller’s team finished 39th at KenPom last season; a noticeable bump up is in order yet again. UC fans’ patience will be rewarded. Miller has the benefit of returning enough above-average pieces to be a feisty team in the thick Big 12.

There is no outright star here, but then again, that’s the Cincinnati way more often than not. Jizzle James’ breakout sophomore season is an expectation; the physical combo guard needs to make a jump to justify this ranking. But bringing back Day Day Thomas and Dan Skillings Jr. in the backcourt is just as important for the objectives in Cincy. Their style contrasted against Aziz Bandaogo’s standout defense — he will be featured in the middle — is going to give the Bearcats some matchup advantages. Bandaogo will be assisted by Simas Lukosius, who can roam on the wing as one of the more dependable 6-8 3-point shooters in the league. The intriguing name is Dillon Mitchell, who is using his last year of eligibility and figures to start at the 4. BYU was the surprise metrics darling in the Big 12 last season. I sense UC could be that team in ’24-25.